xan

The Saints FO has outsmarted themselves, and the evidence piles up as scenarios play out. By signing Drew Brees, whom only one other team showed any interest (and even they balked at the concept early), the team has negotiated themselves into a situation where they cannot get full value for their #2 draft choice. While the team could have run the risk of not being able to sign Brees, all of the other teams who have signed free agent quarterbacks signed healthy replacements or backups in relatively short order. In addition, by essentially blasting the intention to sign Brees no matter what it took, the Saints took an enormous cap hit for the 2006 season to sign a damaged quarterback who may well not be able to start until later in the regular season, if at all. With so many holes to fill, including the risk at qb, a relatively light FA acquisition record and release of several starters, there is little margin for error for the upcoming draft.

Because of the Brees signing, the bluff of taking Young, Lienart or Cutler weakens their position to trade out of the pick, with the likely teams knowing that if they don't trade with the Saints, they will have at least a 50-50 shot at getting an extremely high quality QB while retaining their later round draft choices. If they don't get their target rookie QB, each of the teams in question, like the Saints, have multiple needs to fill and can do so. GM's may be in consensus that picking Fergueson or Hawk would be a low value pick for the #2 slot in the draft, further diminishing the Saints' negotiating position; teams picking after the Saints would essentially dare the Saints to either wound themselves with the pick or trade out for less than full value.

The Jets, for example, have 3 experienced QB's on the roster already, and need a DE, CB, and at least one more O-Lineman. With two first round picks, they can have one of the more succesfull drafts.

The Titans, given the uncertainty of their qb situation, picking 3rd rather than 2nd doesn't gain them anything as they have the systems in place to fold in any of the 3 QBs on the consensus 1st round board. They also have multiple needs, were relatively uneventful in FA and cannot afford to let a 2nd round pick go for essentially no value. Even if the Saints traded out of their position which pulled one of the three qb's from consideration, they'd still get "their man."

If conventional wisdom were NOT to pick a qb in the 1st round due to risk of a blow out, would the Saints be the only team to really heed that axiom? Each of the teams in the top 8 selections of the draft have multiple significant holes to fill, just like the Saints. By giving up additional selections to the Saints in exchange for moving up could be considered doubling down against the odds. Failure to succede by risking assets to move up has been shown to have dramatic effects on the tenure of the coaching staff and the FO, and in remarkably real time. There is very low tolerance for failure in taking such risks, some analysts and insiders quoting 8 years to recover from making such a profound losing wager.

None of this augurs well for the prospects of the Saints to get full value for their pick. And it all started by overplaying their hand and overpaying for Drew Brees.

Calvin: "I wish I was a Tiger."
Hobbes: "Common lament."