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One Playoff Spot Available, Version 2.0

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; At the 9 week mark, at 4-5, there are 5 locks for spots: Green Bay (6-3) Chicago (7-2) San Fran (6-2-1) Giants (6-4) Atlanta (8-1) That leaves 1 spot. There are 5 teams above the Saints: Minny - 6-4 (CHI ...

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Old 11-12-2012, 08:25 AM   #1
xan
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One Playoff Spot Available, Version 2.0

At the 9 week mark, at 4-5, there are 5 locks for spots:

Green Bay (6-3)
Chicago (7-2)
San Fran (6-2-1)
Giants (6-4)
Atlanta (8-1)

That leaves 1 spot.

There are 5 teams above the Saints:

Minny - 6-4 (CHI * 2, GB *2, Houston) Projected 8-8
Seattle - 6-4 (CHI, SF) Projected 10-6
Detroit - 4-5 (GB *2, ATL, CHI) Projected 8-8
TB - 5-4 (ATL *2, NO, Denver) Projected 8-8
Dallas - 4-5 (Cincy, Pitt) Projected 9-7 (Cleve, Wash*2, Philly wins)

Looking at the schedule, ours is not the toughest, but it is close.

@OAK win
SF Possible loss (odds change with starting qb)
@ATL Probable loss
@NY Probable loss (weather will dictate)
TB win
@DAL possible loss
CAR (if history is any indicator) probable loss

Seattle is the 90% favorite to take the #6 seed (2nd wildcard spot). Minny has a crushing final 7 weeks, but they face a quarterbackless Chicago twice in 3 weeks.
Dallas has to have one more inexplicable loss, which doesn't look likely.

Even assuming a 5 win run, a loss to Dallas gives them the tiebreak if we both wind up 10-6.

Things are looking up. Football Outsiders had us at 1.2% odds of gaining the 6th spot before the win against the Falcons. We should gain about 10%. We still have to get to 10-6 to have a shot, and then we have to beat the Cowboys in that mix.

We need to start scoreboard watching, and cheering for underdogs (or favorites, in many cases), so the team doesn't.

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Hobbes: "Common lament."
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Old 11-12-2012, 05:57 PM   #2
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Re: One Playoff Spot Available, Version 2.0

Detroit can't beat anybody in its division so they're out. They'll also have to face houston, Indy, and Atlanta in their schedule.

Tampa is good but we beat in their field so I see no reason why we won't beat them in OUR field.

No the bears don't have a QB but at least Campbell of the bears isn't a turnover machine like Cutler. Carson Palmer turns it over too much and he's facing that turnover happy bears defense so minny is out.

Dallas will beat themselves. The saints game against them will mean nothing because they literally have no home field advantage.

They'll lose to Pittsburgh and Cincy and it wouldn't surprise me if they lose to washington.

The only team that worries me is seattle just because they got off to a good start. They're 6-4(even though they should be 5-5).

But from the way the hawks do terrible away and from how well the bills did against the pats, it wouldn't surprise me if they lose to miami,chicago, buffalo. Then they'll have the 9ers again.
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:39 PM   #3
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Re: One Playoff Spot Available, Version 2.0

Thanks... you popped my bubble.

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Old 11-12-2012, 07:46 PM   #4
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Re: One Playoff Spot Available, Version 2.0

My definition of a lock is different. Those are projections.
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:47 PM   #5
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Re: One Playoff Spot Available, Version 2.0

All the teams ahead of us for that last spot will fall to .500 or sub record in the end.

Thats my thinking.

I am not even sure Green Bay will there either.
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:58 PM   #6
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Re: One Playoff Spot Available, Version 2.0

Xan,

I'm a bit confused. According to NFL's conference standings:

NFL Standings: Conference

The Saints are currently 9th behind only Seattle, Minnesota, and Tampa for the 6th spot.

Also I now question with the tie, is SF actually a lock. The 9ers still have the Saints, Pats, and Seahawks at home. They finish 10-5-1 they may be on the outside looking in.

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Old 11-12-2012, 07:58 PM   #7
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Re: One Playoff Spot Available, Version 2.0

"@OAK win
SF Possible loss (odds change with starting qb)
@ATL Probable loss
@NY Probable loss (weather will dictate)
TB win
@DAL possible loss
CAR (if history is any indicator) probable loss"

40-whiners couldn't beat a weak Rams team yesterday.
Atl Probable loss- I am not sure what you are basing that on, but the Saints have beaten the Falcons the last 4 times they have played each other; I think it goes to 5.
Saints have beaten the Giants 3 straight times since 2006, including a road win when the Giants did not run a play on the Saints side of the field!!
Dallas possible loss-I don't see that happening
Carolina possible loss- The main reason the Saints lose to the kittens late in the season is because the Saints are resting players for the playoffs!

If the Saints stay healthy and the defense keeps improving, I see the Saints running the table to finish 11-5!!
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Old 11-12-2012, 10:01 PM   #8
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They close loss to the Packers could well prove very costly.
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Old 11-12-2012, 11:00 PM   #9
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Re: One Playoff Spot Available, Version 2.0

  • Saints have tie break over Dallas based on strength of victory.
  • Saints wins tie break over Detroit and Arizona based on best win percentage in conference games.

Playoffs exactly in this order. If season ended today:

---In---
Atl
Chi
SF
Giants
GB
Seattle
---Out---
Vikes
TB
Saints
Dallas
Det
AZ
StL
Phi
Wash
Car

I predict at least 2 teams will slide (Giants and another team)
It happens every year
Saints MAY only be flexible to lose 1 more game but 9-7....we've seen CRAZIER things happen.
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Old 11-12-2012, 11:19 PM   #10
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Re: One Playoff Spot Available, Version 2.0

Atlanta is the only team on that list that is actually a "lock" even colloquially speaking (since 8 wins isn't enough to guarantee a spot,) and plenty of other people have shown that we are fourth in line for the 6th spot. So, I would agree that there is only one LIKELY playoff spot available to us, there are 3 possible spots and while your projections are reasonable, I don't think they carry much value for discussion right now, since there are too many games left to play. Once we get to week 13 or 14, and we can put out some scenarios and actual mathematical locks, then we can have this conversation, but until then I don't even think it is valuable to comment past what the actual standings are.

TL;DR Let's chill on the playoff talk and focus on the Oakland game for now...
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