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Statistically, the Saint's Win

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; While a lot is being made of the Saint's being "away" in this game, it looks like the weather is going to cooperate. I checked it for two days, and today it shows 25 degrees at game-time, and almost no ...

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Old 01-01-2014, 09:52 AM   #1
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Statistically, the Saint's Win

While a lot is being made of the Saint's being "away" in this game, it looks like the weather is going to cooperate. I checked it for two days, and today it shows 25 degrees at game-time, and almost no wind, and no precipitation. So that should be less significant than Seattle and Carolina.

I did some stats, which makes me feel better, of course.

Philly was 10-6, with a +60 off-def, and had a schedule strength of 44.9 (115-141 w/l)percent, playing a losing schedule.

The Saint's were 11-5, with a +110, and played teams (16 games) with a schedule win percentage of 51.6 (132-124). This goes to the Saint's, probably a bigger than you would think. Divisional strength is encompassed in the strength of teams played.

I did games against common opponents played, and averaged games where one side or the other had 2 divisional rivals.

Philly7 was (3-1), with a +52 (offense-defense).

The Saint's were (4-0) with a +77.5, which again, of course goes to the Saint's.

You could glean that Philly was improving at the end, maybe. You could say the Saint's were getting worse, but I don't think that accurately portrays them. They were just a bit inconsistent, their losses to 3 big-time winning teams, and one to an 8-8 Jet's team. Add to that, losing to a deceptively good 7-9 Ram's team, with the misfortune of being in the same division as Seattle, San Francisco, and Arizona. Of course they also had 2 wins over 12-4 teams, and several of the other games were close.

People say they play bad on the road. In truth, the Saint's played most of their toughest opponents on the road. This one I think they can take--Drew should be able to shred their passing defense, our run game is looking better, and we'll have to do our best to shut theirs down.

Truth is, I think our team could win this one going away, like the recent Tampa game, or the Dallas game, slow start or not. Statistics aren't people--but they do a pretty good job of estimating potential. Be nice if you could open the doors and get that practice shed as cold as possible, so you can get used to it, find the best gloves to use too.

Good luck! I would take that 2.5 points and the Saint's every day--in fact I can't believe Philly is favored to win. They keep talking about how the Saint's have never won a road playoff game--a friend of mine used to talk about the "due factor," which meant they were "due" to win one.

It's all about believing, not thinking too much and just playing, just doing what they know how to do. If they do that, they'll be fine. All that other stuff is just crap. On final encouraging statistic--their five road losses were to teams with a collective win record of 65%, which is HUGE. And like I said, the 8-8 team and the 7-9 team weren't too shabby either.
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Old 01-01-2014, 10:09 AM   #2
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Re: Statistically, the Saint's Win

Saints are going to blow them out. Why? Drew Brees. Brees looked ****ty in practically every away game. Thing is, I've never, with emphasis on never, saw him play bad in the playoffs. He turns into a monster in the playoffs. We lost our road playoff games do to the defense in recent years. Anyone think they'll be the problem? Nah.
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Old 01-01-2014, 10:19 AM   #3
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Re: Statistically, the Saint's Win

Rez, I always wonder how much gamesmanship goes into choosing how hard they practice and play against various opponents.

Sadly, the last time I did this type of thing, Seattle didn't look as good, and they ran all over the Saint's in Seattle. I seem to remember Seattle even had a sad record too. But the Saint's were riddled with injuries that year going in. This year they're surprisingly healthy, and Ryan just seems to keep on patching up major losses. I'm still not sure what is going on with that Butler guy, who never played. Will he be back next year? Do we want him back? Raphael Bush is back, and we really seemed to miss him when he was out, and Hawthorne is awesome too.

I think I saw Philly is 32nd against the pass, on pass defense? Isn't that like a nightmare scenario against Brees? I'm just having a hard time thinking the Saint's are underdogs in this game. If the weather was predicted to be snowy or sleety, yea. But with no wind, and a cool, clear night--I don't see a problem.

I just hope they've hooked up some coolers, big refrigeration units to their practice shed, and cooled it down to freezing to get used to playing cold.
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Old 01-01-2014, 01:47 PM   #4
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Re: Statistically, the Saint's Win

It's all about getting hot at the right time
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Old 01-01-2014, 08:31 PM   #5
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Re: Statistically, the Saint's Win

Here's one:
Records of opponents who beat the Saints= 52-28, .650 winning %
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