A truthful look at our WRs

JKool · 03-27-2005, 01:24 PM

Just to revisit this locked on idea - those that think that Brooks was \"locked on\" need to show why this argument isn\'t any good:

1. The rough average number of passes thrown to a #1 WR is about 27% of passes thrown.
2. The number of passes thrown to Joe was 28% of total passes.
Therefore,
3. Joe was thrown to at exactly the same rate as all #1 WRs.
Therefore,
4. Joe was not locked on to any more than any other #1 WR.

Here are two things that I think count against this argument:
1. Brooks appeared to be locked on in some games - the short reciever was open, but Brooks was looking for Horn. I stipulate to this; Brooks did lock on at times. However, that doesn\'t show that he was any more or less locked on than any other QB, given the argument above.
2. Brooks did not distribute the ball to the RB at the same rate most other QBs do. Perhaps, Brooks is locked downfield, but not necessarily on Joe - I\'ll buy that argument, given the statistical evidence. Again, this doesn\'t show that Brooks was locked on Joe.

jnormand · 03-27-2005, 01:24 PM

Agreed.

saintswhodi · 03-27-2005, 01:39 PM

Kool, how many games did you go to? And this isn\'t to knock your facts, but just a question. How many games did anyone go to? I went to one, in Dallas, where AB happened to look terrible(I am sure it was a fluke though

) and he locked on to Horn in that game, to the tune of a red zone INT and an INT to Roy Williams who neber gets any. My pops owns season tickets and went to every game. Unbiased as they come, supports Brooks, then offers criticism when he does poorly. Before I could even mention my thoughts on this subject, he told me he and those around him noticed AB\'s lock onto Joe mentality. Now I don\'t know what lock on means to you, cause I was the one who posted the percentages, but lock on to me means if the offense is going well, the ball gets shared. But if there is any trouble, quick pass rush, blitz, whatever, the ball is going to Joe, no ifs ands or buts. Third down needed? The ball is going to Joe. Now, I am sorry if I am gonna take what I saw, and what someone who was at all home games saw.

But since the 28% figure which I found was put out there, do you know the next highest percentage thrown to on our team? I posted that too. It was Donte at 19%. For peyton Manning, Harrison got 28%, but Wayne got 23% and Stokley 20%. Shows an even distribution as the second guy and even the third guy are relatively close to the first guy. Same with Denver, same with Tennessee, same with the other teams I posted that seem to be missed. As a matter of fact, you will rarely find a team who throws it to their number one more than 30%, so the factor for lock on thus becomes how much is the second guy getting the ball, and the third. Not nearly as much as other teams. SO that to me is lock on. But, to each his own.

shadowdrinker · 03-27-2005, 02:07 PM

Ok...I\'m going to attempt to break down Stallworth , and copmare him to some of the other WR\'s drafted in the first round of the 2002 draft...even though many good receivers were taken in the 2nd round..for now, I will stick to the first round WR\'s

In order , starting from the highest picked WR on down...

Stallworth ranks highest, bieng taken with the 13th overall pick...

His numbers are as follows

Year Team G GS No Yards Avg Lg TD 20+ 40+ FD
2002 New Orleans Saints 13 7 42 594 14.1 57 8 11 2 26
2003 New Orleans Saints 11 3 25 485 19.4 76 3 6 3 19
2004 New Orleans Saints 16 10 58 767 13.2 45 5 13 1 35
TOTAL 40 20 125 1846 14.8 76 16 30 6 80

Next is Ashley Lelie..he was drafted 19th overall..his numbers are as follows...

Year Team G GS No Yards Avg Lg TD 20+ 40+ FD
2002 Denver Broncos 16 1 35 525 15.0 48 2 9 3 24
2003 Denver Broncos 16 10 37 628 17.0 60 2 11 5 25
2004 Denver Broncos 16 16 54 1084 20.1 58 7 21 5 40
TOTAL 48 27 126 2237 17.8 60 11 41 13 89

Then we have Javon Walker, taken 20th overall

Year Team G GS No Yards Avg Lg TD 20+ 40+ FD
2002 Green Bay Packers 15 2 23 319 13.9 30 1 6 0 14
2003 Green Bay Packers 16 3 41 716 17.5 66 9 12 4 27
2004 Green Bay Packers 16 12 89 1382 15.5 79 12 19 7 63
TOTAL 47 17 153 2417 15.8 79 22 37 11 104

Now..when you look at the 3..side by side..Stallworth is clearly the least productive of the 3...and although many will state his injuries held him back..he had more starts than Walker..and only 7 less the Lelie...and both Walker and Lelie have progressed at a much better rate than Stallworth...

I could go back even further, and get some 2nd rounders who have been equal or better than Donte has been..

I think the truth may be getting clearer to me...It was infact a very good year for drafting WR..We may have needed to take more time to consider other guys...maybe even waiting till the 2nd round..

Donte has progressed some..but his pace is much slower than that of his Peers in his age group...We have an Offense comparable to any of the WR\'s mentioned...So..what\'s the missing ingredient?..

I\'m not sure..he was suppose to be the best of the group..But has failed in all areas to reach beyond the level of his peers..and I\'m not convinced that he can catch up...

I predict sometime in the near future Stallworth will be a solid 3rd Wide out...I just haven\'t seen enough evidence to convince me He is now, or has ever been prepared to take charge in an NFL Offense...

Don\'t be too suprised to see the team take a 3rd or higher pick and spend it on a WR...

[Edited on 27/3/2005 by shadowdrinker]

saintswhodi · 03-27-2005, 02:23 PM

Nice work shadow. I don\'t diagree with what you are saying, but Stallworth has been injured so his ability to grow at the same rate may be stunted. Also, Walker\'s QB is Favre. Nuff said there. And Lelie\'s QB is Plummer, who when he is good, is real good, but can occasionaly be real bad. IT\'s usually for a game or so though so and not a season. I think Stallworth will be a damn fine number two, just maybe not with this team.

BreesFN9 · 03-27-2005, 02:27 PM

[quote:5fb01774fb] I think Stallworth will be a damn fine number two, just maybe not with this team.

Do you mean team or QB?

saintswhodi · 03-27-2005, 02:39 PM

Good question FN. Let\'s say either/or.

BreesFN9 · 03-27-2005, 02:48 PM

[quote:362b87eebf] Good question FN. Let\'s say either/or.

Ok. The easy way out it it is. I can read the rest between the lines.

no_cloning · 03-27-2005, 03:23 PM

OFFENSIVE ADJUSTMENTS: (...) The passing game will feature more high-percentage throws with an emphasis on short drops and quick strikes to prevent sacks and take advantage of the running skills of receivers Joe Horn, Donte\' Stallworth and Devery Henderson.

This is obviously to take advantage of our receivers and their abilities ...

Sounds good, eh? What I\'m also hearing here:
No or very few passes deep downfield, just like last year. Stallworth\'s and Henderson\'s speed could be used to overwhelm opponent\'s backfields and AB can make these throws. Yet the offensive coordinator ignores these mismatches.
AB\'s ability to throw touch passes will be crucial. Uh-oh.

With Horn and Stallworth we have 2 above average starters. Not as good as some other combos, but still in the Top 10. What I miss is some big posession receiver and depth overall. Gardner and Henderson may well be good options, but I wouldn\'t mind a proven veteran.

Stallworth\'s progress doesn\'t worry me. Lelie and Walker may have put up better numbers, but they don\'t have a Joe Horn on their teams either. He was a good pick at #13.

WhoDat · 03-27-2005, 04:44 PM

The SaintsÃƒÂ¢Ã¢Â‚Â¬Ã¢Â„Â¢ receivers are often referred to, by the media and fans, as one of the most talented groups in the NFL.

While I would likely agree with the argument that the Saints WRs have not entirely lived up, the argument that they aren\'t an extremely talented group is a bad one. Let\'s look at the guys,

Horn - let\'s just leave it at, the guy has talent. You don\'t go to 4 of 5 Pro Bowls with no talent. Top 10 in the league in talent, top 5 in production.

Pathon - In college, Pathon only started for two years, but is second all-time in receiving in U. Washington history. The guy is not at number one level, but he is certainly a pretty darn good number 2 and great as a thrid WR.

Stallworth - was All-SEC at Tennesee as a sophomore, a year in which he was injured. The guy was a first round pick in the NFL draft. He has sick speed and freakish strength for a guy his size. Before being hurt in the 5th game of his rookie year, Stallworth was on pace to all-time rookie records as a WR. How you can say this guy doesn\'t have talent is beyond me.

Henderson and Lewis are both guys with unreal speed. Neither, IMO, will ever be great NFL WRs. Both lack size and hands and brains to do it. But both are serious threats ever time they touch the ball.

Gardner and D. Lewis are both solid prospects. Nathan Black is the MAN!!

03-27-2005, 01:24 PM	#11
JKool 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,423	A truthful look at our WRs Just to revisit this locked on idea - those that think that Brooks was \"locked on\" need to show why this argument isn\'t any good: 1. The rough average number of passes thrown to a #1 WR is about 27% of passes thrown. 2. The number of passes thrown to Joe was 28% of total passes. Therefore, 3. Joe was thrown to at exactly the same rate as all #1 WRs. Therefore, 4. Joe was not locked on to any more than any other #1 WR. Here are two things that I think count against this argument: 1. Brooks appeared to be locked on in some games - the short reciever was open, but Brooks was looking for Horn. I stipulate to this; Brooks did lock on at times. However, that doesn\'t show that he was any more or less locked on than any other QB, given the argument above. 2. Brooks did not distribute the ball to the RB at the same rate most other QBs do. Perhaps, Brooks is locked downfield, but not necessarily on Joe - I\'ll buy that argument, given the statistical evidence. Again, this doesn\'t show that Brooks was locked on Joe.
	"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks

03-27-2005, 01:24 PM	#12
jnormand 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: The Free State of Idaho Posts: 5,530	A truthful look at our WRs Agreed.

03-27-2005, 02:07 PM	#14
shadowdrinker Banned Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 517	A truthful look at our WRs Ok...I\'m going to attempt to break down Stallworth , and copmare him to some of the other WR\'s drafted in the first round of the 2002 draft...even though many good receivers were taken in the 2nd round..for now, I will stick to the first round WR\'s In order , starting from the highest picked WR on down... Stallworth ranks highest, bieng taken with the 13th overall pick... His numbers are as follows Year Team G GS No Yards Avg Lg TD 20+ 40+ FD 2002 New Orleans Saints 13 7 42 594 14.1 57 8 11 2 26 2003 New Orleans Saints 11 3 25 485 19.4 76 3 6 3 19 2004 New Orleans Saints 16 10 58 767 13.2 45 5 13 1 35 TOTAL 40 20 125 1846 14.8 76 16 30 6 80 Next is Ashley Lelie..he was drafted 19th overall..his numbers are as follows... Year Team G GS No Yards Avg Lg TD 20+ 40+ FD 2002 Denver Broncos 16 1 35 525 15.0 48 2 9 3 24 2003 Denver Broncos 16 10 37 628 17.0 60 2 11 5 25 2004 Denver Broncos 16 16 54 1084 20.1 58 7 21 5 40 TOTAL 48 27 126 2237 17.8 60 11 41 13 89 Then we have Javon Walker, taken 20th overall Year Team G GS No Yards Avg Lg TD 20+ 40+ FD 2002 Green Bay Packers 15 2 23 319 13.9 30 1 6 0 14 2003 Green Bay Packers 16 3 41 716 17.5 66 9 12 4 27 2004 Green Bay Packers 16 12 89 1382 15.5 79 12 19 7 63 TOTAL 47 17 153 2417 15.8 79 22 37 11 104 Now..when you look at the 3..side by side..Stallworth is clearly the least productive of the 3...and although many will state his injuries held him back..he had more starts than Walker..and only 7 less the Lelie...and both Walker and Lelie have progressed at a much better rate than Stallworth... I could go back even further, and get some 2nd rounders who have been equal or better than Donte has been.. I think the truth may be getting clearer to me...It was infact a very good year for drafting WR..We may have needed to take more time to consider other guys...maybe even waiting till the 2nd round.. Donte has progressed some..but his pace is much slower than that of his Peers in his age group...We have an Offense comparable to any of the WR\'s mentioned...So..what\'s the missing ingredient?.. I\'m not sure..he was suppose to be the best of the group..But has failed in all areas to reach beyond the level of his peers..and I\'m not convinced that he can catch up... I predict sometime in the near future Stallworth will be a solid 3rd Wide out...I just haven\'t seen enough evidence to convince me He is now, or has ever been prepared to take charge in an NFL Offense... Don\'t be too suprised to see the team take a 3rd or higher pick and spend it on a WR... [Edited on 27/3/2005 by shadowdrinker]
shadowdrinker Banned Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 517

03-27-2005, 02:23 PM	#15
saintswhodi 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: San Antonio, TX Posts: 6,941	A truthful look at our WRs Nice work shadow. I don\'t diagree with what you are saying, but Stallworth has been injured so his ability to grow at the same rate may be stunted. Also, Walker\'s QB is Favre. Nuff said there. And Lelie\'s QB is Plummer, who when he is good, is real good, but can occasionaly be real bad. IT\'s usually for a game or so though so and not a season. I think Stallworth will be a damn fine number two, just maybe not with this team.

03-27-2005, 02:27 PM	#16
BreesFN9 500th Post Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Vancouver, B.C. Posts: 596	A truthful look at our WRs [quote:5fb01774fb] I think Stallworth will be a damn fine number two, just maybe not with this team. Do you mean team or QB?

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03-27-2005, 01:39 PM	#13
saintswhodi 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: San Antonio, TX Posts: 6,941	A truthful look at our WRs Kool, how many games did you go to? And this isn\'t to knock your facts, but just a question. How many games did anyone go to? I went to one, in Dallas, where AB happened to look terrible(I am sure it was a fluke though ) and he locked on to Horn in that game, to the tune of a red zone INT and an INT to Roy Williams who neber gets any. My pops owns season tickets and went to every game. Unbiased as they come, supports Brooks, then offers criticism when he does poorly. Before I could even mention my thoughts on this subject, he told me he and those around him noticed AB\'s lock onto Joe mentality. Now I don\'t know what lock on means to you, cause I was the one who posted the percentages, but lock on to me means if the offense is going well, the ball gets shared. But if there is any trouble, quick pass rush, blitz, whatever, the ball is going to Joe, no ifs ands or buts. Third down needed? The ball is going to Joe. Now, I am sorry if I am gonna take what I saw, and what someone who was at all home games saw. But since the 28% figure which I found was put out there, do you know the next highest percentage thrown to on our team? I posted that too. It was Donte at 19%. For peyton Manning, Harrison got 28%, but Wayne got 23% and Stokley 20%. Shows an even distribution as the second guy and even the third guy are relatively close to the first guy. Same with Denver, same with Tennessee, same with the other teams I posted that seem to be missed. As a matter of fact, you will rarely find a team who throws it to their number one more than 30%, so the factor for lock on thus becomes how much is the second guy getting the ball, and the third. Not nearly as much as other teams. SO that to me is lock on. But, to each his own.

03-27-2005, 02:39 PM	#17
saintswhodi 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: San Antonio, TX Posts: 6,941	A truthful look at our WRs Good question FN. Let\'s say either/or.

03-27-2005, 02:48 PM	#18
BreesFN9 500th Post Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Vancouver, B.C. Posts: 596	A truthful look at our WRs [quote:362b87eebf] Good question FN. Let\'s say either/or. Ok. The easy way out it it is. I can read the rest between the lines.

03-27-2005, 03:23 PM	#19
no_cloning 100th Post Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 249	A truthful look at our WRs OFFENSIVE ADJUSTMENTS: (...) The passing game will feature more high-percentage throws with an emphasis on short drops and quick strikes to prevent sacks and take advantage of the running skills of receivers Joe Horn, Donte\' Stallworth and Devery Henderson. This is obviously to take advantage of our receivers and their abilities ... Sounds good, eh? What I\'m also hearing here: No or very few passes deep downfield, just like last year. Stallworth\'s and Henderson\'s speed could be used to overwhelm opponent\'s backfields and AB can make these throws. Yet the offensive coordinator ignores these mismatches. AB\'s ability to throw touch passes will be crucial. Uh-oh. With Horn and Stallworth we have 2 above average starters. Not as good as some other combos, but still in the Top 10. What I miss is some big posession receiver and depth overall. Gardner and Henderson may well be good options, but I wouldn\'t mind a proven veteran. Stallworth\'s progress doesn\'t worry me. Lelie and Walker may have put up better numbers, but they don\'t have a Joe Horn on their teams either. He was a good pick at #13.
no_cloning 100th Post Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 249

03-27-2005, 04:44 PM	#20
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	A truthful look at our WRs The SaintsÃƒÂ¢Ã¢Â‚Â¬Ã¢Â„Â¢ receivers are often referred to, by the media and fans, as one of the most talented groups in the NFL. While I would likely agree with the argument that the Saints WRs have not entirely lived up, the argument that they aren\'t an extremely talented group is a bad one. Let\'s look at the guys, Horn - let\'s just leave it at, the guy has talent. You don\'t go to 4 of 5 Pro Bowls with no talent. Top 10 in the league in talent, top 5 in production. Pathon - In college, Pathon only started for two years, but is second all-time in receiving in U. Washington history. The guy is not at number one level, but he is certainly a pretty darn good number 2 and great as a thrid WR. Stallworth - was All-SEC at Tennesee as a sophomore, a year in which he was injured. The guy was a first round pick in the NFL draft. He has sick speed and freakish strength for a guy his size. Before being hurt in the 5th game of his rookie year, Stallworth was on pace to all-time rookie records as a WR. How you can say this guy doesn\'t have talent is beyond me. Henderson and Lewis are both guys with unreal speed. Neither, IMO, will ever be great NFL WRs. Both lack size and hands and brains to do it. But both are serious threats ever time they touch the ball. Gardner and D. Lewis are both solid prospects. Nathan Black is the MAN!!
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	\"Excuses, excuses, excuses. ThatÃ¢Â€Â™s all anyone ever makes for the New Orleans SaintsÃ¢Â€Â™ organization.\" - Eric Narcisse \"Being a Saints fan is almost like being addicted to crack,\" he said.[i]\"You know you should stop, but you just can\'t.\"