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Sean Payton: Analytics have educated me, but some decisions Id like back

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Saints coach Sean Payton is a believer in analytics, and has adopted the aggressive stance on fourth downs that analytics experts have been saying coaches should adopt for years. But that doesnt mean there arent a few fourth-down decisions hed ...

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Old 12-07-2018, 09:48 AM   #1
 
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Sean Payton: Analytics have educated me, but some decisions Id like back

Saints coach Sean Payton is a believer in analytics, and has adopted the aggressive stance on fourth downs that analytics experts have been saying coaches should adopt for years. But that doesnt mean there arent a few fourth-down decisions hed like to have back.

Payton said on PFT Live that he regrets the Saints failed fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line against the Cowboys last week, even though the analytics said it was the right call.

I do think thats where analytics have changed in a positive way, Payton said. I think were more educated.

So why does Payton wish he could have that fourth-and-goal decision back? Because each game is different, and in that Cowboys game, he knew points would be at a premium and went into the game thinking a field goal would be a positive result for any drive.

I kick myself for two or three different situations in that game, not handling them the right way, Payton said. We have an opportunity to score, its fourth-and-1, I know our fourth down numbers are good, I felt like we had a good plan, and yet, in that game? Kick the field goal.

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Old 12-07-2018, 09:59 AM   #2
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Re: Sean Payton: Analytics have educated me, but some decisions Id like back

Yeah that was very interesting to hear Payton admit that. I think a lot of people in that game (me included) felt like "take the points, Sean, take the points." Interestingly there was a very similar situation in the game last night -- Jacksonville was behind by the improbable score of 2-7, they drove down the field into the red zone, where they went for it on 4th down and goal from the 1....Leonard Fournette didn't get in, he got tackled for a loss, and after that, it was basically all over -- the momentum totally swung to Tennessee's favor for the rest of the game and it quickly became a blowout. In a low scoring Thursday night game where your team is on the road in a short week and performing poorly on the field, taking the 3 points is always the better safer option. Because goal line stops on 4th down, they always give the other team a huge boost in motivation, energy and momentum, if they stop you and you don't get in.
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Old 12-07-2018, 10:11 AM   #3
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Re: Sean Payton: Analytics have educated me, but some decisions Id like back

I get the analytics of it all but on 4th and 1 ... but give the ball to Angrum.
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Old 12-07-2018, 10:25 AM   #4
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Re: Sean Payton: Analytics have educated me, but some decisions Id like back

What I want to know is why Taysom wasn't in on that call. 90% of all other goal line play calls this year, Hill was in. That would have given the cowboy defense a couple of different things to consider. Oh well it's in the past.
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Old 12-07-2018, 11:51 AM   #5
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Re: Sean Payton: Analytics have educated me, but some decisions Id like back

I just think it says a lot about the coach to reflect outwardly like that, and admit he'd like to have the play back.
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Old 12-07-2018, 12:03 PM   #6
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Re: Sean Payton: Analytics have educated me, but some decisions Id like back

In the end, we stopped Dallas "twice" on their final drive and got the ball back with momentum and a chance to win with ample time. Drew side-armed a throw and it was picked. We lost. Good hard-nosed game by both teams.
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Old 12-07-2018, 01:47 PM   #7
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Re: Sean Payton: Analytics have educated me, but some decisions Id like back

Originally Posted by Papa Voodoo View Post
In the end, we stopped Dallas "twice" on their final drive and got the ball back with momentum and a chance to win with ample time. Drew side-armed a throw and it was picked. We lost. Good hard-nosed game by both teams.
That side-armed throw was actually an attempt to throw the ball away while still avoiding an intentional grounding call. At least that's what it looked like to me. Lewis just made an incredible play to make it to the ball.


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Old 12-07-2018, 02:22 PM   #8
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Re: Sean Payton: Analytics have educated me, but some decisions Id like back

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
That side-armed throw was actually an attempt to throw the ball away while still avoiding an intentional grounding call. At least that's what it looked like to me. Lewis just made an incredible play to make it to the ball.


Jourdan Lewis Pick
I'm not sure either. It was pretty far behind Kamara and a great dive and catch by the defender.
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Old 12-07-2018, 03:23 PM   #9
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Re: Sean Payton: Analytics have educated me, but some decisions Id like back

Originally Posted by Papa Voodoo View Post
In the end, we stopped Dallas "twice" on their final drive and got the ball back with momentum and a chance to win with ample time. Drew side-armed a throw and it was picked. We lost. Good hard-nosed game by both teams.
The "pressure" up the middle was consistent throughout for Dallas. Brees literally had no time or a clean pocket.
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