There are no draft busts, and as long as a player plays on a team they are considered a success? We're not allowed to compare quality of draft picks because - organizations? The draft is easy that's why some teams have avoided the playoffs for years? Apparently a top rated draft pick can't fail even though we see them fail all the time?

You are "all or nothing" in your perspective. I am not. Could your 7 year old nephew make as good a choice as Loomis? Only if he had as many years of experience and all the the resources available. I haven't disputed that. However, is there any chance that Loomis, or any other person involved in making the draft selections, could draft a player that turns out to be a bust? Of course there is because of the inherent unknowns that are always in play. Is it a gamble? Of course. Is the gamble along the same odds as winning blackjack? Most likely not, but a gamble nonetheless.

As for the 35% that you can't seem to drop, I admitted that the implication of that percentage was misconveyed by others and with some research of my own actually included UDFA's. Pages ago I agreed that that number was totally invalid as far as draftees are concerned.

By labeling the draft as a "crapshoot" the pundits are simply saying there is a gamble connected with every selection. They also point out is a correlation between the round of the selection and the actual eventual success of that player, but there remains the possibility that failure may be the result regardless of the round.

Absolutely a draft pick can fail, just look at 2 1sts and a 5th. By the same token, so can veteran free agent acquisitions. And of course we can ALL have disparate views on the subject. But, it is extremely ironic that the subjectivity of what defines “fail” is subjective and is on display with the poll that started this thread, just look at those results! Whether it’s fair or not to define fail/pass on a person still being developed, or has been held back by injuries, or wasn’t started at his team, etc... is up for debate.

And THAT is exactly my point.

At no point did I ever say there was no uncertainty in the draft. I said that the 35% of players drafted don’t make their roster was a false statement. And it is/was. No doubt about it some draft picks don’t pan out for their team. No doubt about it that some veteran free agent acquisitions don’t pan out for their team also.

I’ve been clear, unambiguous. The draft is critical to building a team, so is free agent acquisition. Neither are more “successful” than the other. There is a gamble in everything related to football, so does that mean playcalling is a “crapshoot”? I would argue No. But to each their own.

At this point I do not see Davenport as a failure at all. There nothing that tells me that he can't go out and ring up 15 sacks under the right conditions. At its very best the draft is a very inexact science. The very best have bad misses. The very worst have huge successes.

I agree with you that building through the draft is very critical. But with all of the unknowns nobody knows for certain when or if it will pay off.

Nobody knows if a veteran free agent is going to “pay off” either.

The fact that we’re even discussing failure/success on a multiple first round draft pick choice from several years ago is EXACTLY my point wrt drafting. It’s impossible to grade them so quickly. Why? Because it’s so subjective, most ppl, including coaches and football executives, will “homer up” for the players they like, create excuses for them, aka injuries, scheme, coaching, playcalling..., heck I’ve even seen some folks use “ bad luck” as an excuse, lol. Could Davenport go out and rack up 15 sacks? Yes, but if so, then why he hasn’t he done it already? Hendrickson was just tied with A.Donald for 2d in the league in sacks with 13.5. Which, btw, is more than Davenport’s career sacks, combined.

Bottom line..., he could..., but he hasn’t..., and he’s had the chances. If we evaluate one player with excuses and reasons as to why they haven’t lived up to their draft selection, then we should be open-minded enough to do it for all.

I’ve said my piece on this AG, I understand your pov, I just disagree with it. Most things here are subjective, just opinions. Percentages though..., not so much.

BikeWeek begins today and I’m just waiting on my girl to get home from work! Chrome is polished, lol! I’ll be away for a while, enjoy your weekend.