Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

AsylumGuido · 03-04-2021, 12:00 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

I guess it’s semantics then. What one means by the rules of craps or what one means by the rules of blackjack. Both have their odds on the flip of a card or the roll of a dice. But I will say again this goes along with my earlier statement of doubting that 35% of drafted players make rosters. You casually changed the focus from drafted to rookie players to support that number. But when you say it doesn’t matter how much money you throw at it are you seriously saying that the amount of investigation (money) one does on draft choice not relevant? Is there a spectrum on how informed a person is there? Could my 7 year old nephew make as good a choice as Loomis since it’s nothing more than a blackjack hand?

You are "all or nothing" in your perspective. I am not. Could your 7 year old nephew make as good a choice as Loomis? Only if he had as many years of experience and all the the resources available. I haven't disputed that. However, is there any chance that Loomis, or any other person involved in making the draft selections, could draft a player that turns out to be a bust? Of course there is because of the inherent unknowns that are always in play. Is it a gamble? Of course. Is the gamble along the same odds as winning blackjack? Most likely not, but a gamble nonetheless.

As for the 35% that you can't seem to drop, I admitted that the implication of that percentage was misconveyed by others and with some research of my own actually included UDFA's. Pages ago I agreed that that number was totally invalid as far as draftees are concerned.

By labeling the draft as a "crapshoot" the pundits are simply saying there is a gamble connected with every selection. They also point out is a correlation between the round of the selection and the actual eventual success of that player, but there remains the possibility that failure may be the result regardless of the round.

Boston Saint · 03-04-2021, 12:14 PM

Fair enough. But as a poker player myself and a knowledgeable craps shooter I can say that having an idea of what you are doing makes a difference. And to me, draft research is like looking for player tells. My 7 year old nephew knows what to do when he sees pocket aces vs 7-2 off suit. But deciding what to do with suited connectors depends on your position depends on looking at other players tendencies.

Black Jack or Craps has no outside influence of how someone else bets. You either get the card or roll or you do not. Poker makes you read how other players react under pressure bets. This is exactly what the draft evaluators try to do by your black jack comparison. There is more unknown in Omaha or Hold’em than craps of blackjack. There is where the draft research on if a player has a tell or always plays A certain hand (my personal fault) comes in handy. And this is where your idea of it not mattering how much money (i.e. research, evaluation, interviews,) you throw at it falls apart. It sure as heck does.

gosaints1 · 03-04-2021, 01:08 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

You are "all or nothing" in your perspective. I am not. Could your 7 year old nephew make as good a choice as Loomis? Only if he had as many years of experience and all the the resources available. I haven't disputed that. However, is there any chance that Loomis, or any other person involved in making the draft selections, could draft a player that turns out to be a bust? Of course there is because of the inherent unknowns that are always in play. Is it a gamble? Of course. Is the gamble along the same odds as winning blackjack? Most likely not, but a gamble nonetheless.

As for the 35% that you can't seem to drop, I admitted that the implication of that percentage was misconveyed by others and with some research of my own actually included UDFA's. Pages ago I agreed that that number was totally invalid as far as draftees are concerned.

By labeling the draft as a "crapshoot" the pundits are simply saying there is a gamble connected with every selection. They also point out is a correlation between the round of the selection and the actual eventual success of that player, but there remains the possibility that failure may be the result regardless of the round.

At no point did I ever say there was no uncertainty in the draft. I said that the 35% of players drafted don’t make their roster was a false statement. And it is/was. No doubt about it some draft picks don’t pan out for their team. No doubt about it that some veteran free agent acquisitions don’t pan out for their team also.

I’ve been clear, unambiguous. The draft is critical to building a team, so is free agent acquisition. Neither are more “successful” than the other. There is a gamble in everything related to football, so does that mean playcalling is a “crapshoot”? I would argue No. But to each their own.

AsylumGuido · 03-04-2021, 01:33 PM

Originally Posted by gosaints1

At no point did I ever say there was no uncertainty in the draft. I said that the 35% of players drafted don’t make their roster was a false statement. And it is/was. No doubt about it some draft picks don’t pan out for their team. No doubt about it that some veteran free agent acquisitions don’t pan out for their team also.

I’ve been clear, unambiguous. The draft is critical to building a team, so is free agent acquisition. Neither are more “successful” than the other. There is a gamble in everything related to football, so does that mean playcalling is a “crapshoot”? I would argue No. But to each their own.

Again with the 35%. Once again I agreed to that point with you pages ago. That number was misrepresented from what I had read ages ago. But, you have to agree that a player with years of NFL snaps is much easier to gauge than a player who has never taken a professional snap in his career. It is completely logical to expect many times more missteps in the selection of the latter, is it not?

View Poll Results: After three seasons, what grade do you give the Saints for the 2018 Draft Haul?
A	1	7.69%
B	3	23.08%
C	2	15.38%
D	5	38.46%
F	2	15.38%
Voters: 13. You may not vote on this poll

03-04-2021, 12:00 PM	#1
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,472	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by Boston Saint I guess it’s semantics then. What one means by the rules of craps or what one means by the rules of blackjack. Both have their odds on the flip of a card or the roll of a dice. But I will say again this goes along with my earlier statement of doubting that 35% of drafted players make rosters. You casually changed the focus from drafted to rookie players to support that number. But when you say it doesn’t matter how much money you throw at it are you seriously saying that the amount of investigation (money) one does on draft choice not relevant? Is there a spectrum on how informed a person is there? Could my 7 year old nephew make as good a choice as Loomis since it’s nothing more than a blackjack hand? You are "all or nothing" in your perspective. I am not. Could your 7 year old nephew make as good a choice as Loomis? Only if he had as many years of experience and all the the resources available. I haven't disputed that. However, is there any chance that Loomis, or any other person involved in making the draft selections, could draft a player that turns out to be a bust? Of course there is because of the inherent unknowns that are always in play. Is it a gamble? Of course. Is the gamble along the same odds as winning blackjack? Most likely not, but a gamble nonetheless. As for the 35% that you can't seem to drop, I admitted that the implication of that percentage was misconveyed by others and with some research of my own actually included UDFA's. Pages ago I agreed that that number was totally invalid as far as draftees are concerned. By labeling the draft as a "crapshoot" the pundits are simply saying there is a gamble connected with every selection. They also point out is a correlation between the round of the selection and the actual eventual success of that player, but there remains the possibility that failure may be the result regardless of the round. Boston Saint likes this.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

03-04-2021, 12:14 PM	#2
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Fair enough. But as a poker player myself and a knowledgeable craps shooter I can say that having an idea of what you are doing makes a difference. And to me, draft research is like looking for player tells. My 7 year old nephew knows what to do when he sees pocket aces vs 7-2 off suit. But deciding what to do with suited connectors depends on your position depends on looking at other players tendencies. Black Jack or Craps has no outside influence of how someone else bets. You either get the card or roll or you do not. Poker makes you read how other players react under pressure bets. This is exactly what the draft evaluators try to do by your black jack comparison. There is more unknown in Omaha or Hold’em than craps of blackjack. There is where the draft research on if a player has a tell or always plays A certain hand (my personal fault) comes in handy. And this is where your idea of it not mattering how much money (i.e. research, evaluation, interviews,) you throw at it falls apart. It sure as heck does.
	You think you know, but you don’t know...and you never will! Coach Jim Mora

03-04-2021, 01:08 PM	#3
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by AsylumGuido You are "all or nothing" in your perspective. I am not. Could your 7 year old nephew make as good a choice as Loomis? Only if he had as many years of experience and all the the resources available. I haven't disputed that. However, is there any chance that Loomis, or any other person involved in making the draft selections, could draft a player that turns out to be a bust? Of course there is because of the inherent unknowns that are always in play. Is it a gamble? Of course. Is the gamble along the same odds as winning blackjack? Most likely not, but a gamble nonetheless. As for the 35% that you can't seem to drop, I admitted that the implication of that percentage was misconveyed by others and with some research of my own actually included UDFA's. Pages ago I agreed that that number was totally invalid as far as draftees are concerned. By labeling the draft as a "crapshoot" the pundits are simply saying there is a gamble connected with every selection. They also point out is a correlation between the round of the selection and the actual eventual success of that player, but there remains the possibility that failure may be the result regardless of the round. At no point did I ever say there was no uncertainty in the draft. I said that the 35% of players drafted don’t make their roster was a false statement. And it is/was. No doubt about it some draft picks don’t pan out for their team. No doubt about it that some veteran free agent acquisitions don’t pan out for their team also. I’ve been clear, unambiguous. The draft is critical to building a team, so is free agent acquisition. Neither are more “successful” than the other. There is a gamble in everything related to football, so does that mean playcalling is a “crapshoot”? I would argue No. But to each their own.
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576

03-04-2021, 01:33 PM	#4
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,472	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by gosaints1 At no point did I ever say there was no uncertainty in the draft. I said that the 35% of players drafted don’t make their roster was a false statement. And it is/was. No doubt about it some draft picks don’t pan out for their team. No doubt about it that some veteran free agent acquisitions don’t pan out for their team also. I’ve been clear, unambiguous. The draft is critical to building a team, so is free agent acquisition. Neither are more “successful” than the other. There is a gamble in everything related to football, so does that mean playcalling is a “crapshoot”? I would argue No. But to each their own. Again with the 35%. Once again I agreed to that point with you pages ago. That number was misrepresented from what I had read ages ago. But, you have to agree that a player with years of NFL snaps is much easier to gauge than a player who has never taken a professional snap in his career. It is completely logical to expect many times more missteps in the selection of the latter, is it not?