AsylumGuido

Sorry, but quite a few others beg to differ. There are dozens more beyond this small smattering.

The NFL Draft is More of a Crapshoot Than an Exact Science
By John Fennelly - 04/26/2017

Philadelphia Eagles: The NFL Draft is a total crapshoot
by Jeffrey Powell 10 months ago

Schneider’s comments reveal what a crapshoot the draft really is
Posted by Mike Florio on April 25, 2018

Crapshoot—The NFL Draft: 1967-2017 Kindle Edition
by David V. Gray (Author)

The 2021 NFL draft is a crapshoot: How investing like Warren Buffett means teams should be aggressive in adding more picks
Bill Barnwell
ESPN Staff Writer

The NFL Draft Is Still a Crapshoot
ALLEN BARRA
APRIL 27, 2012

Study: NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The Draft
barryap
Barry Petchesky
9/24/13 4:00PM

Drafting quarterbacks is the NFL's biggest crapshoot
Dave Birkett Detroit Free Press

It gets more hype than ever, but the NFL draft is still a crapshoot
JOE POSNANSKI APR 22, 2010

For Wharton professor Cade Massey, the NFL Draft is a crapshoot
Massey has come to some surprising conclusions about the event’s methodology and processes
By Daniel Rich 10/14/13 6:15pm

“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

AsylumGuido

The reason why I used blackjack as an analogy to the NFL draft is because, just like with the draft, a good player knows the odds and can make educated plays based upon those odds, yet until that next card is turned, or that player actually experiences the NFL, there is no way to be confident in the eventual outcome. That turn card could turn that 11 into a 21 or a 15. Or that first couple of years can reveal a player who excels or one that gets kicked to the curb.

gosaints1

Blackjack players that have any amount of success, over time, count cards, it’s a simple mechanic and your odds can easily be manipulated. Quite frequently card counters team up for even better odds. It really is a simple mechanic and even as a beginner, all you have to do is slow the dealer down. In no time you’ll be adjusting the running total in your head, as quickly as the dealer turns over cards. I don’t think there is any mechanic used in drafting that improves your odds that significantly. As far as the “crapshoot” argument goes it doesn’t surprise me that many will use that term as an excuse for poor scouting, poor coaching, poor development..., etc.

There are WAY too many variables in drafting to declare individual players inside each draft a success/failure to label the draft nothing more than “luck” or a “crapshoot”. The team drafting, that team’s active roster, team needs, player demands, injuries, environment... All of those and many many many more come into play when determining if a draft prospect is considered successful or not.

Why even have a scouting team? It’s luck, right? Why have position coaches, college players will either have it or not, right? We’ll just draft who Kiper has rated as best player available next and hope for the best. Of course those ppl are going to call it a “crapshoot”. They have guessed on some folks and failed. Like the Saints did with 2 1sts and a 5th..., then resort back to “it’s just luck, don’t blame us” as an excuse.

It’s similar to saying marriage is a “crapshoot”, right? Same thought process, we’re dealing with massive individual, and organizational (family, religion, work, etc...) dynamics. Controlling that to a 100% success rate is a fools game, not possible. You do the best you can, we all do, but ultimately the statistics show roughly a 55/45 success/fail rate, aka divorce rate, give or take, depending on who you ask. Successful draft picks are much more ambiguous wrt a very simple success/fail, binary evaluation. When it comes to evaluating draft picks I use an “on an nfl roster/not on an nfl roster” to do that evaluation without having years of history to evaluate. With years of history, it can be perspective based also. Lets take our own Drew Brees draft pick, from a San Diegan perspective his draft was one of failure, from a New Orleanian’s perspective, it’s 100% opposite. That dynamic was almost wholly influenced by injury, of course, but I don’t believe Drew Brees has a SB ring on his mantle right now without CSP and the Saints. If Tom Brady were drafted by the Saints at 168, instead of his team at 199, do you honestly think that Tom Terrific would be as successful? Not even close, imho he wouldn’t even be a household name.

If you view the draft as a crapshoot then the same can be said of veteran free agents. They don’t always work out either.

In 2020, veteran free agent failures were ubiquitous, folks like:

Mario Addison
Dante Fowler
Vic Beasely
Randall Cobb
Jimmy Graham
Austin Hooper
Teddy Bridgewater
Jadaveon Clowney

Just to name a few off the top of my head. The difference being cost and cap hits. Veteran Free Agents are expensive, and carry veteran free agent cap hits. And the change from NFL team to NFL team is equally as much an unknown as whether a college player makes the transition to the next level. The draft is not as punishing when you do miss. And everybody misses, both in drafting, and in free agency. But, I just think it’s cynical to label either a “crapshoot”.

Sorry for the novel folks, if anyone has made it this far..., lol, I’ll buy you a beer of your choice for your patience and time, should we ever cross paths.

jeanpierre

IF it's that much a crapshoot, then why are they being compensated? could not anyone do the job?

And why do some teams draft better than others - consistently?

Those articles are BS - that's team management trying to give themselves cover, take the pressure off...

AsylumGuido

As I pointed out in my blackjack analogy, not anyone or everyone has the ability to be a good player. The best players in the world are subject to the unknown. It is the same in drafting rookies. There is only so much you can do to determine the future success of a prospect. No doubt those that get paid to do their best know FAR more than any of us. That cannot be disputed regardless of how some fans feel they are more qualified. But it all still comes down to a great deal of unknowns that are impossible to predetermine. That's where the educated gambles come into play. The professional gambler knows when it is most advantageous to double-down or to split. The same goes for professionals in the draft game when trading up or trading down. In either case the final result is unknown until after the move. The identification of the success or failure simply comes quite a bit quicker in the cards.

There have been far too many "sure thing" prospects that have petered out for the draft to be anything more than a crapshoot, or if you please, a game of blackjack.

Why do some teams seem to draft better? They have a combination of more knowledge and more fortune. That face card turns at times more than that four. But even the very best at the draft craps out on occasions.

“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill