The Deep QB Draft

Boston Saint · 03-09-2021, 02:21 PM

Provided the Oline can remain solid and Kamara is healthy and there are at
Least 2 viable receiving targets, I feel the Saints can be a playoff team with a handful of current established available QBs (Fitz, Winston, Bridgewater). I also feel that they could develop as so far underperforming guy like Darnold or Trubisky or Rosen under those conditions to be a viable QB. So, if I follow my own logic, there are likely 5 draftable guys Payton could develop into a starter in 3 seasons. They did too well with backup QBs in the sample size provided with Drew being out to make me think they will fall apart.

AsylumGuido · 03-09-2021, 03:46 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Provided the Oline can remain solid and Kamara is healthy and there are at
Least 2 viable receiving targets, I feel the Saints can be a playoff team with a handful of current established available QBs (Fitz, Winston, Bridgewater). I also feel that they could develop as so far underperforming guy like Darnold or Trubisky or Rosen under those conditions to be a viable QB. So, if I follow my own logic, there are likely 5 draftable guys Payton could develop into a starter in 3 seasons. They did too well with backup QBs in the sample size provided with Drew being out to make me think they will fall apart.

That success with Hill and Bridgewater didn't exactly come against the cream of the NFL crop. The defenses were also playing out of their butts both the stretches. As much as I like Payton I have serious doubts we can just plug and play with just any QB on a permanent basis and see the playoffs. I see us as a five or six win team with Hill once the league has enough tape on him and as a .500 team with Winston. I think Payton's days are numbered, anyways, if Brees calls it quits. It was great while it lasted.

AsylumGuido · 03-09-2021, 04:17 PM

Here's a very good article from footballoutsiders.com that pertains to this subject.

NFL Draft: Round-by-Round QB Study (1994-2016)

It lays out in detail every QB drafted during that stretch of time and goes into their success, or lack thereof. It groups them by round and degree of success within that round. One thing that jumped out at me was the lack of success of QB's drafted in the third round or lower. Our very own Aaron Brooks was identified as "The Good" amongst other 4th rounders. I couldn't argue the fact looking at the others.

But also note the lack of success in the earlier rounds. There were 57 first rounders (272 QB's overall) drafted during that stretch. It's scary looking through the list. Only 16 made "The Good" list and it appears accurate to me.

SmashMouth · 03-09-2021, 05:35 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Here's a very good article from footballoutsiders.com that pertains to this subject.

NFL Draft: Round-by-Round QB Study (1994-2016)

It lays out in detail every QB drafted during that stretch of time and goes into their success, or lack thereof. It groups them by round and degree of success within that round. One thing that jumped out at me was the lack of success of QB's drafted in the third round or lower. Our very own Aaron Brooks was identified as "The Good" amongst other 4th rounders. I couldn't argue the fact looking at the others.

But also note the lack of success in the earlier rounds. There were 57 first rounders (272 QB's overall) drafted during that stretch. It's scary looking through the list. Only 16 made "The Good" list and it appears accurate to me.

Not sure about your analysis in this piece. Very few of the later rounders (4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th) made it to a hall of fame caliber QB. TB is obviously the lone exception.

It'd be interesting to see with data that went much further back. I'd be willing to wager that your points would be more valid as a result.

AsylumGuido · 03-09-2021, 06:01 PM

Originally Posted by SmashMouth

Not sure about your analysis in this piece. Very few of the later rounders (4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th) made it to a hall of fame caliber QB. TB is obviously the lone exception.

It'd be interesting to see with data that went much further back. I'd be willing to wager that your points would be more valid as a result.

I agree that the data is limited, but it is relevant in its recent nature. Probably more relevant because it all involves seven round drafts, modern research means, and the combine.

stickman · 03-10-2021, 06:57 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

That success with Hill and Bridgewater didn't exactly come against the cream of the NFL crop. The defenses were also playing out of their butts both the stretches. As much as I like Payton I have serious doubts we can just plug and play with just any QB on a permanent basis and see the playoffs. I see us as a five or six win team with Hill once the league has enough tape on him and as a .500 team with Winston. I think Payton's days are numbered, anyways, if Brees calls it quits. It was great while it lasted.

Agree with most of this Guido. But not that part about Payton's days being numbered. I think he wants to prove he can win without Brees.

03-09-2021, 02:21 PM	#1
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: The Deep QB Draft Provided the Oline can remain solid and Kamara is healthy and there are at Least 2 viable receiving targets, I feel the Saints can be a playoff team with a handful of current established available QBs (Fitz, Winston, Bridgewater). I also feel that they could develop as so far underperforming guy like Darnold or Trubisky or Rosen under those conditions to be a viable QB. So, if I follow my own logic, there are likely 5 draftable guys Payton could develop into a starter in 3 seasons. They did too well with backup QBs in the sample size provided with Drew being out to make me think they will fall apart.
	You think you know, but you don’t know...and you never will! Coach Jim Mora

03-09-2021, 03:46 PM	#2
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by Boston Saint Provided the Oline can remain solid and Kamara is healthy and there are at Least 2 viable receiving targets, I feel the Saints can be a playoff team with a handful of current established available QBs (Fitz, Winston, Bridgewater). I also feel that they could develop as so far underperforming guy like Darnold or Trubisky or Rosen under those conditions to be a viable QB. So, if I follow my own logic, there are likely 5 draftable guys Payton could develop into a starter in 3 seasons. They did too well with backup QBs in the sample size provided with Drew being out to make me think they will fall apart. That success with Hill and Bridgewater didn't exactly come against the cream of the NFL crop. The defenses were also playing out of their butts both the stretches. As much as I like Payton I have serious doubts we can just plug and play with just any QB on a permanent basis and see the playoffs. I see us as a five or six win team with Hill once the league has enough tape on him and as a .500 team with Winston. I think Payton's days are numbered, anyways, if Brees calls it quits. It was great while it lasted.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

03-09-2021, 04:17 PM	#3
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: The Deep QB Draft Here's a very good article from footballoutsiders.com that pertains to this subject. NFL Draft: Round-by-Round QB Study (1994-2016) It lays out in detail every QB drafted during that stretch of time and goes into their success, or lack thereof. It groups them by round and degree of success within that round. One thing that jumped out at me was the lack of success of QB's drafted in the third round or lower. Our very own Aaron Brooks was identified as "The Good" amongst other 4th rounders. I couldn't argue the fact looking at the others. But also note the lack of success in the earlier rounds. There were 57 first rounders (272 QB's overall) drafted during that stretch. It's scary looking through the list. Only 16 made "The Good" list and it appears accurate to me. SmashMouth likes this.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

03-09-2021, 05:35 PM	#4
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,794 Blog Entries: 29	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Here's a very good article from footballoutsiders.com that pertains to this subject. NFL Draft: Round-by-Round QB Study (1994-2016) It lays out in detail every QB drafted during that stretch of time and goes into their success, or lack thereof. It groups them by round and degree of success within that round. One thing that jumped out at me was the lack of success of QB's drafted in the third round or lower. Our very own Aaron Brooks was identified as "The Good" amongst other 4th rounders. I couldn't argue the fact looking at the others. But also note the lack of success in the earlier rounds. There were 57 first rounders (272 QB's overall) drafted during that stretch. It's scary looking through the list. Only 16 made "The Good" list and it appears accurate to me. Not sure about your analysis in this piece. Very few of the later rounders (4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th) made it to a hall of fame caliber QB. TB is obviously the lone exception. It'd be interesting to see with data that went much further back. I'd be willing to wager that your points would be more valid as a result. K Major likes this.

03-09-2021, 06:01 PM	#5
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by SmashMouth Not sure about your analysis in this piece. Very few of the later rounders (4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th) made it to a hall of fame caliber QB. TB is obviously the lone exception. It'd be interesting to see with data that went much further back. I'd be willing to wager that your points would be more valid as a result. I agree that the data is limited, but it is relevant in its recent nature. Probably more relevant because it all involves seven round drafts, modern research means, and the combine.

03-10-2021, 06:57 AM	#6
stickman 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Gonzales, LA Posts: 1,799	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by AsylumGuido That success with Hill and Bridgewater didn't exactly come against the cream of the NFL crop. The defenses were also playing out of their butts both the stretches. As much as I like Payton I have serious doubts we can just plug and play with just any QB on a permanent basis and see the playoffs. I see us as a five or six win team with Hill once the league has enough tape on him and as a .500 team with Winston. I think Payton's days are numbered, anyways, if Brees calls it quits. It was great while it lasted. Agree with most of this Guido. But not that part about Payton's days being numbered. I think he wants to prove he can win without Brees. papz, Rugby Saint II, gosaints1 and 2 others like this.