The Deep QB Draft

Boston Saint · 03-09-2021, 02:21 PM

Provided the Oline can remain solid and Kamara is healthy and there are at
Least 2 viable receiving targets, I feel the Saints can be a playoff team with a handful of current established available QBs (Fitz, Winston, Bridgewater). I also feel that they could develop as so far underperforming guy like Darnold or Trubisky or Rosen under those conditions to be a viable QB. So, if I follow my own logic, there are likely 5 draftable guys Payton could develop into a starter in 3 seasons. They did too well with backup QBs in the sample size provided with Drew being out to make me think they will fall apart.

AsylumGuido · 03-09-2021, 03:46 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Provided the Oline can remain solid and Kamara is healthy and there are at
Least 2 viable receiving targets, I feel the Saints can be a playoff team with a handful of current established available QBs (Fitz, Winston, Bridgewater). I also feel that they could develop as so far underperforming guy like Darnold or Trubisky or Rosen under those conditions to be a viable QB. So, if I follow my own logic, there are likely 5 draftable guys Payton could develop into a starter in 3 seasons. They did too well with backup QBs in the sample size provided with Drew being out to make me think they will fall apart.

That success with Hill and Bridgewater didn't exactly come against the cream of the NFL crop. The defenses were also playing out of their butts both the stretches. As much as I like Payton I have serious doubts we can just plug and play with just any QB on a permanent basis and see the playoffs. I see us as a five or six win team with Hill once the league has enough tape on him and as a .500 team with Winston. I think Payton's days are numbered, anyways, if Brees calls it quits. It was great while it lasted.

AsylumGuido · 03-09-2021, 04:17 PM

Here's a very good article from footballoutsiders.com that pertains to this subject.

NFL Draft: Round-by-Round QB Study (1994-2016)

It lays out in detail every QB drafted during that stretch of time and goes into their success, or lack thereof. It groups them by round and degree of success within that round. One thing that jumped out at me was the lack of success of QB's drafted in the third round or lower. Our very own Aaron Brooks was identified as "The Good" amongst other 4th rounders. I couldn't argue the fact looking at the others.

But also note the lack of success in the earlier rounds. There were 57 first rounders (272 QB's overall) drafted during that stretch. It's scary looking through the list. Only 16 made "The Good" list and it appears accurate to me.

SmashMouth · 03-09-2021, 05:35 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Here's a very good article from footballoutsiders.com that pertains to this subject.

NFL Draft: Round-by-Round QB Study (1994-2016)

It lays out in detail every QB drafted during that stretch of time and goes into their success, or lack thereof. It groups them by round and degree of success within that round. One thing that jumped out at me was the lack of success of QB's drafted in the third round or lower. Our very own Aaron Brooks was identified as "The Good" amongst other 4th rounders. I couldn't argue the fact looking at the others.

But also note the lack of success in the earlier rounds. There were 57 first rounders (272 QB's overall) drafted during that stretch. It's scary looking through the list. Only 16 made "The Good" list and it appears accurate to me.

Not sure about your analysis in this piece. Very few of the later rounders (4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th) made it to a hall of fame caliber QB. TB is obviously the lone exception.

It'd be interesting to see with data that went much further back. I'd be willing to wager that your points would be more valid as a result.

AsylumGuido · 03-09-2021, 06:01 PM

Originally Posted by SmashMouth

Not sure about your analysis in this piece. Very few of the later rounders (4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th) made it to a hall of fame caliber QB. TB is obviously the lone exception.

It'd be interesting to see with data that went much further back. I'd be willing to wager that your points would be more valid as a result.

I agree that the data is limited, but it is relevant in its recent nature. Probably more relevant because it all involves seven round drafts, modern research means, and the combine.

Boston Saint · 03-09-2021, 07:33 PM

They may not have been “creaml of the crop” but 8-1 with backup QBs is still 8-1. I also didn’t say any QB could come in, I Mentioned a few names I thought would be able to keep the team competitive with a full training camp and
Pre-season.

st thomas · 03-09-2021, 07:58 PM

Oh wow data my asre, didn’t 2gloves go to Seattle and whip there asre, I’m so much ready for what ever comes the BnG way

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

st thomas · 03-09-2021, 08:03 PM

Jamison Winston is our qb for the next 3 yearrrrrrrs, my bad did I say that

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

stickman · 03-10-2021, 06:57 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

That success with Hill and Bridgewater didn't exactly come against the cream of the NFL crop. The defenses were also playing out of their butts both the stretches. As much as I like Payton I have serious doubts we can just plug and play with just any QB on a permanent basis and see the playoffs. I see us as a five or six win team with Hill once the league has enough tape on him and as a .500 team with Winston. I think Payton's days are numbered, anyways, if Brees calls it quits. It was great while it lasted.

Agree with most of this Guido. But not that part about Payton's days being numbered. I think he wants to prove he can win without Brees.

TheOak · 03-10-2021, 08:20 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Having Brees decide to return would be ideal. Beyond that, the scenarios, in my opinion, are not very rosy. We can retain Taysom Hill as a starter and start taking chances on an annual basis drafting QB's in hope that one of them eventually pans out to be a decent option.

There aren't even statistically slim rosy scenarios for the team and 2021 Guido, only a scenario that feeds your desires.

If Drew stays we are hit with $12.5M, if he leaves we are hit with $11.5M this year and next.

If he stays the odds of a repeat of a 2020 season are slimmer than drafting a franchise QB because he will have a fair bit less talent around him due to cap hell. If he stays with a less talented roster there is a higher probability he will get injured again.. We can rationalize his injuries in 2019 and 2020 as flukes but two flukes starts a trend and he is getting injured because either the line cant protect him or he cant protect himself anymore. Those rib fractures happened over time, not because he fell once.

It is time for a new dawn Guido whether you like it or not. We cant have any sort of quarterback discussion on these forums without you coming in and making Drew the center of the discussion. Nothing in what Smash posted is about Drew, he isn't even mentioned, I was hoping you would respond with something other than what you did.

03-09-2021, 02:21 PM	#21
Boston Saint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 4,874	Re: The Deep QB Draft Provided the Oline can remain solid and Kamara is healthy and there are at Least 2 viable receiving targets, I feel the Saints can be a playoff team with a handful of current established available QBs (Fitz, Winston, Bridgewater). I also feel that they could develop as so far underperforming guy like Darnold or Trubisky or Rosen under those conditions to be a viable QB. So, if I follow my own logic, there are likely 5 draftable guys Payton could develop into a starter in 3 seasons. They did too well with backup QBs in the sample size provided with Drew being out to make me think they will fall apart.
	You think you know, but you don’t know...and you never will! Coach Jim Mora

03-09-2021, 03:46 PM	#22
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,394	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by Boston Saint Provided the Oline can remain solid and Kamara is healthy and there are at Least 2 viable receiving targets, I feel the Saints can be a playoff team with a handful of current established available QBs (Fitz, Winston, Bridgewater). I also feel that they could develop as so far underperforming guy like Darnold or Trubisky or Rosen under those conditions to be a viable QB. So, if I follow my own logic, there are likely 5 draftable guys Payton could develop into a starter in 3 seasons. They did too well with backup QBs in the sample size provided with Drew being out to make me think they will fall apart. That success with Hill and Bridgewater didn't exactly come against the cream of the NFL crop. The defenses were also playing out of their butts both the stretches. As much as I like Payton I have serious doubts we can just plug and play with just any QB on a permanent basis and see the playoffs. I see us as a five or six win team with Hill once the league has enough tape on him and as a .500 team with Winston. I think Payton's days are numbered, anyways, if Brees calls it quits. It was great while it lasted.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

03-09-2021, 04:17 PM	#23
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,394	Re: The Deep QB Draft Here's a very good article from footballoutsiders.com that pertains to this subject. NFL Draft: Round-by-Round QB Study (1994-2016) It lays out in detail every QB drafted during that stretch of time and goes into their success, or lack thereof. It groups them by round and degree of success within that round. One thing that jumped out at me was the lack of success of QB's drafted in the third round or lower. Our very own Aaron Brooks was identified as "The Good" amongst other 4th rounders. I couldn't argue the fact looking at the others. But also note the lack of success in the earlier rounds. There were 57 first rounders (272 QB's overall) drafted during that stretch. It's scary looking through the list. Only 16 made "The Good" list and it appears accurate to me. SmashMouth likes this.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

03-09-2021, 05:35 PM	#24
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 37,011 Blog Entries: 29	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Here's a very good article from footballoutsiders.com that pertains to this subject. NFL Draft: Round-by-Round QB Study (1994-2016) It lays out in detail every QB drafted during that stretch of time and goes into their success, or lack thereof. It groups them by round and degree of success within that round. One thing that jumped out at me was the lack of success of QB's drafted in the third round or lower. Our very own Aaron Brooks was identified as "The Good" amongst other 4th rounders. I couldn't argue the fact looking at the others. But also note the lack of success in the earlier rounds. There were 57 first rounders (272 QB's overall) drafted during that stretch. It's scary looking through the list. Only 16 made "The Good" list and it appears accurate to me. Not sure about your analysis in this piece. Very few of the later rounders (4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th) made it to a hall of fame caliber QB. TB is obviously the lone exception. It'd be interesting to see with data that went much further back. I'd be willing to wager that your points would be more valid as a result. K Major likes this.

03-09-2021, 06:01 PM	#25
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,394	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by SmashMouth Not sure about your analysis in this piece. Very few of the later rounders (4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th) made it to a hall of fame caliber QB. TB is obviously the lone exception. It'd be interesting to see with data that went much further back. I'd be willing to wager that your points would be more valid as a result. I agree that the data is limited, but it is relevant in its recent nature. Probably more relevant because it all involves seven round drafts, modern research means, and the combine.

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03-09-2021, 07:33 PM	#26
Boston Saint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 4,874	Re: The Deep QB Draft They may not have been “creaml of the crop” but 8-1 with backup QBs is still 8-1. I also didn’t say any QB could come in, I Mentioned a few names I thought would be able to keep the team competitive with a full training camp and Pre-season.

03-09-2021, 07:58 PM	#27
st thomas Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: lafayette Posts: 7,753	Re: The Deep QB Draft Oh wow data my asre, didn’t 2gloves go to Seattle and whip there asre, I’m so much ready for what ever comes the BnG way Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

03-09-2021, 08:03 PM	#28
st thomas Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: lafayette Posts: 7,753	Re: The Deep QB Draft Jamison Winston is our qb for the next 3 yearrrrrrrs, my bad did I say that Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

03-10-2021, 06:57 AM	#29
stickman 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Gonzales, LA Posts: 1,597	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by AsylumGuido That success with Hill and Bridgewater didn't exactly come against the cream of the NFL crop. The defenses were also playing out of their butts both the stretches. As much as I like Payton I have serious doubts we can just plug and play with just any QB on a permanent basis and see the playoffs. I see us as a five or six win team with Hill once the league has enough tape on him and as a .500 team with Winston. I think Payton's days are numbered, anyways, if Brees calls it quits. It was great while it lasted. Agree with most of this Guido. But not that part about Payton's days being numbered. I think he wants to prove he can win without Brees. papz, Rugby Saint II, gosaints1 and 2 others like this.

03-10-2021, 08:20 AM	#30
TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 18,978	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Having Brees decide to return would be ideal. Beyond that, the scenarios, in my opinion, are not very rosy. We can retain Taysom Hill as a starter and start taking chances on an annual basis drafting QB's in hope that one of them eventually pans out to be a decent option. There aren't even statistically slim rosy scenarios for the team and 2021 Guido, only a scenario that feeds your desires. If Drew stays we are hit with $12.5M, if he leaves we are hit with $11.5M this year and next. If he stays the odds of a repeat of a 2020 season are slimmer than drafting a franchise QB because he will have a fair bit less talent around him due to cap hell. If he stays with a less talented roster there is a higher probability he will get injured again.. We can rationalize his injuries in 2019 and 2020 as flukes but two flukes starts a trend and he is getting injured because either the line cant protect him or he cant protect himself anymore. Those rib fractures happened over time, not because he fell once. It is time for a new dawn Guido whether you like it or not. We cant have any sort of quarterback discussion on these forums without you coming in and making Drew the center of the discussion. Nothing in what Smash posted is about Drew, he isn't even mentioned, I was hoping you would respond with something other than what you did. jnormand and SmashMouth like this.
	It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. ~ Henry David Thoreau