Rankins to J E T S !

AsylumGuido · 03-22-2021, 10:45 AM

Originally Posted by gosaints1

Won’t there be two more “offsets” to the salary cap, similar to this year; one in 2022, and also 2023, both roughly the same, a negative $15.7M, difference between $198.2M and $182.5M? My understanding was the league didn’t want a huge salary cap reduction this year, anticipated to be down in the $150M neighborhood, so the NFL with the owner’s and player’s blessings, agreed to spread that huge cap reduction out over the next three years.

Daniel Kaplan, sports business writer:

“The salary cap, absent the NFL’s and NFLPA’s agreement to borrow from future years, would have been in the $150 million to $160 million range given the pandemic losses. But knowing the new TV deals will roughly double media income, the sport is comfortable dipping into that future largess to soften the 2021 cap decline. Future caps will rise significantly but will have to take into account this season’s borrowing of future revenue.”

https://theathletic.com/news/nfl-set...s/0WCzkKHuwVmQ

I’m not as concerned as others may be, with getting under and signing the roster, a very good roster I think also, as much as I am about the upcoming draft. Looks like our lateral freedom to sign any veterans to fill needs are going to be limited. Not only this upcoming season, but possibly the next two as well. Drafting well is always important, but now it feels almost critical. Add in dead money, which is creeping up there and will increase significantly post 6/1, stating the draft is critical is a huge understatement.

The newly announced broadcast deals will roughly double the revenues of the previous deals. Even with future adjustments I am still hearing cap numbers around $220-$225 million for 2022, and soon up to the $250 million range. With the CBA driven sharing of revenues, the cap will jump up over $300 million in short order. From what I heard today on NFL Radio from the NFL's lead counsel in the negotiations, Janet Nova, the new 11 year deals also allow for the league to renegotiate those revenues upwards during the contract span. That part is unilateral. The broadcast companies do not have the same freedom to negotiate down.

jeanpierre · 03-22-2021, 01:58 PM

And don't forget how many 1 year deals are going down this year as agents and their free agent players await to see the new cap numbers...

We take our beating this year...

Rugby Saint II · 03-22-2021, 02:04 PM

Originally Posted by K Major

Per OTC, we'll receive a 5th rd comp for Sheldon.

Only a fifth? He was a high draft pick that played well when healthy. I thought that he would be worth another 3rd round comp pick. But apparently he isn't as valuable as I thought. I see all late picks as trade ammunition on draft day.

AsylumGuido · 03-22-2021, 02:29 PM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

And don't forget how many 1 year deals are going down this year as agents and their free agent players await to see the new cap numbers...

We take our beating this year...

I just heard on Moving the Chains that they're closing in on 200 one year deals and if you count all of the two and three year deals with voidable years it could easily top 250. All of these players will be back on the market next off-season. Everyone knows the cap is expected to skyrocket starting next year so why enter a multi-year deal when you don't know exactly how high it could skyrocket.

AsylumGuido · 03-22-2021, 02:35 PM

Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II

Only a fifth? He was a high draft pick that played well when healthy. I thought that he would be worth another 3rd round comp pick. But apparently he isn't as valuable as I thought. I see all late picks as trade ammunition on draft day.

Here's how the pick is determined:

Methodology

App. V, §2 lays out the process of calculating the value of CFAs. §2(a) begins the calculation as follows to all players in the league:

Start with the Average Per Year (APY) of the contract signed.

Subtract from the APY any money that the compensatory formula does not count.

Rank these players by adjusted APY in descending order, and assign points to each player, equal to [number of leaguewide players]-[rank].

Add anywhere from 25 to 100 points for players who played a percentage of snaps on offense or defense in the range of 25% to 100%. (Kickers and punters are given a different point addition unrelated to snap counts.)

Add 20 or 5 points for postseason honors as determined by the AP’s All Pro list, and the PFWA’s All NFL/All Conference list.

3 Prior to the 2020 CBA, it had been determined that workout bonuses, incentives, and salary escalators were common devices that the compensatory formula does not count. However, App. V, §2(a) of the 2020 CBA makes clear that these devices will now count if they are considered Likely To Be Earned, or are earned in the player’s first season of his new contract.

Qualifying CFAs And Assigning Them To A Round

Once the Final Numerical Value (FNV) as described above has been tallied, each UFA is given a value that either assigns him as a CFA to a particular round, ranging from the 3rd to the 7th, or does not qualify him as a CFA at all. App. V, §3(b) sets these round cutoffs in a percentile manner, as follows:

Round	Highest Percentile	Lowest Percentile
3rd	100th	95th (top 5%)
4th	below 95th (top 10%)	90th (top 10%)
5th	below 90th (top 10%)	85th (top 15%)
6th	below 85th (top 15%)	75th (top 25%)
7th	below 75th (top 25%)	65th (top 35%)4
Non-CFA	below 65th (top 35%)4	lowest ranked player

st thomas · 03-22-2021, 03:36 PM

Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II

Only a fifth? He was a high draft pick that played well when healthy. I thought that he would be worth another 3rd round comp pick. But apparently he isn't as valuable as I thought. I see all late picks as trade ammunition on draft day.

He sure got paid for for a 3 rd comp.gees that’s a lots of dough for him

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

AsylumGuido · 03-22-2021, 03:52 PM

Originally Posted by st thomas

He sure got paid for for a 3 rd comp.gees that’s a lots of dough for him

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Wait to see the details. The reported contract is worth "up to $17 million" over two years. That indicates that it contains conditions. Things such as playing all 17 games, getting X number of sacks, making the pro-bowl, being named all-pro, etc.

Look at the formula above. When it comes to incentives they only count in the formula if they are "likely to be earned". Based upon this past season none of the incentives I listed would qualify for the formula.

saintsfan1976 · 03-22-2021, 07:05 PM

Originally Posted by TheOak

Very aware of that, as well as that any of those cuts has a direct impact on our game and starting line up.

Would elevate PJ Williams, Patrick Robinson, or Hurst/Griffin to starters. The last cuts are generally the most painful. Keep in mind that is also the 51 number not the all in number.

All in we have to shed:
-6.3M To get under cap
-4M 6 Draft picks at league minimum
- 2M(est) Practice squad

Still have -14M to go to start the season 1M-2M in the black.

Word is the cap could climb to/past 200M, we desperately need the extra 15M in space that would provide.

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

I think saintsfan1976 meant getting the extra cap relief from restructuring/extending those players, not cutting them.

Yes, that is what I meant. Oak just curious, do those numbers account for the carryover from last year? I thought I read 2-ish MM brought over from 2020.

TheOak · 03-24-2021, 07:58 AM

Originally Posted by saintsfan1976

Yes, that is what I meant. Oak just curious, do those numbers account for the carryover from last year? I thought I read 2-ish MM brought over from 2020.

Yes they do and the cap carryover from 2020 is roughly 4.1M.

Generally when I post something here I check both Spotrak and Overthecap for the numbers then look for specific names on their roster to see if certain transactions have been accounted for. They both give a (51) and an all in number that accounts for contracts, dead money, carryover etc. I swag practice squad and draft class costs from what i have learned listening to people like Andrew Brandt who an NFL business analyst, and ex VP of the Packers, he is an absolute azzhole but knows his crap. I ignore content from people that make a living making content because they have to speculate to have new content.

Drew's retirement is not factored in because that will not hit the books until 1 June to allow the Saints to split the dead money over this and next year reducing the dead hit to 11,325,000. His cap hit until that time at 12,225,000 meaning his retirement will relieve roughly 900k of cap burden for this year.

Everyone is looking to be under an absolute number and that is not what is going to happen, Loomis needs to start 2021 with cap cushion to account for injuries requiring us to pick up free agents. According to Andrew that number is generally between 2-4M depending on GM.

Rugby Saint II · 03-24-2021, 02:13 PM

There goes a first round draft pick that was only worth a fifth round comp pick.

03-22-2021, 10:45 AM	#11
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,394	Re: Rankins to J E T S ! Originally Posted by gosaints1 Won’t there be two more “offsets” to the salary cap, similar to this year; one in 2022, and also 2023, both roughly the same, a negative $15.7M, difference between $198.2M and $182.5M? My understanding was the league didn’t want a huge salary cap reduction this year, anticipated to be down in the $150M neighborhood, so the NFL with the owner’s and player’s blessings, agreed to spread that huge cap reduction out over the next three years. Daniel Kaplan, sports business writer: “The salary cap, absent the NFL’s and NFLPA’s agreement to borrow from future years, would have been in the $150 million to $160 million range given the pandemic losses. But knowing the new TV deals will roughly double media income, the sport is comfortable dipping into that future largess to soften the 2021 cap decline. Future caps will rise significantly but will have to take into account this season’s borrowing of future revenue.” https://theathletic.com/news/nfl-set...s/0WCzkKHuwVmQ I’m not as concerned as others may be, with getting under and signing the roster, a very good roster I think also, as much as I am about the upcoming draft. Looks like our lateral freedom to sign any veterans to fill needs are going to be limited. Not only this upcoming season, but possibly the next two as well. Drafting well is always important, but now it feels almost critical. Add in dead money, which is creeping up there and will increase significantly post 6/1, stating the draft is critical is a huge understatement. The newly announced broadcast deals will roughly double the revenues of the previous deals. Even with future adjustments I am still hearing cap numbers around $220-$225 million for 2022, and soon up to the $250 million range. With the CBA driven sharing of revenues, the cap will jump up over $300 million in short order. From what I heard today on NFL Radio from the NFL's lead counsel in the negotiations, Janet Nova, the new 11 year deals also allow for the league to renegotiate those revenues upwards during the contract span. That part is unilateral. The broadcast companies do not have the same freedom to negotiate down.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

03-22-2021, 01:58 PM	#12
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: Rankins to J E T S ! And don't forget how many 1 year deals are going down this year as agents and their free agent players await to see the new cap numbers... We take our beating this year... MatthewT, SmashMouth and K Major like this.

03-22-2021, 02:04 PM	#13
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 23,733	Re: Rankins to J E T S ! Originally Posted by K Major Per OTC, we'll receive a 5th rd comp for Sheldon. Only a fifth? He was a high draft pick that played well when healthy. I thought that he would be worth another 3rd round comp pick. But apparently he isn't as valuable as I thought. I see all late picks as trade ammunition on draft day.

03-22-2021, 02:29 PM	#14
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,394	Re: Rankins to J E T S ! Originally Posted by jeanpierre And don't forget how many 1 year deals are going down this year as agents and their free agent players await to see the new cap numbers... We take our beating this year... I just heard on Moving the Chains that they're closing in on 200 one year deals and if you count all of the two and three year deals with voidable years it could easily top 250. All of these players will be back on the market next off-season. Everyone knows the cap is expected to skyrocket starting next year so why enter a multi-year deal when you don't know exactly how high it could skyrocket.

03-22-2021, 03:36 PM	#16
st thomas Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: lafayette Posts: 7,753	Re: Rankins to J E T S ! Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II Only a fifth? He was a high draft pick that played well when healthy. I thought that he would be worth another 3rd round comp pick. But apparently he isn't as valuable as I thought. I see all late picks as trade ammunition on draft day. He sure got paid for for a 3 rd comp.gees that’s a lots of dough for him Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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03-22-2021, 03:52 PM	#17
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,394	Re: Rankins to J E T S ! Originally Posted by st thomas He sure got paid for for a 3 rd comp.gees that’s a lots of dough for him Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Wait to see the details. The reported contract is worth "up to $17 million" over two years. That indicates that it contains conditions. Things such as playing all 17 games, getting X number of sacks, making the pro-bowl, being named all-pro, etc. Look at the formula above. When it comes to incentives they only count in the formula if they are "likely to be earned". Based upon this past season none of the incentives I listed would qualify for the formula.

03-22-2021, 07:05 PM	#18
saintsfan1976 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Atlanta Posts: 10,538 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Rankins to J E T S ! Originally Posted by TheOak Very aware of that, as well as that any of those cuts has a direct impact on our game and starting line up. Would elevate PJ Williams, Patrick Robinson, or Hurst/Griffin to starters. The last cuts are generally the most painful. Keep in mind that is also the 51 number not the all in number. All in we have to shed: -6.3M To get under cap -4M 6 Draft picks at league minimum - 2M(est) Practice squad Still have -14M to go to start the season 1M-2M in the black. Word is the cap could climb to/past 200M, we desperately need the extra 15M in space that would provide. Originally Posted by AsylumGuido I think saintsfan1976 meant getting the extra cap relief from restructuring/extending those players, not cutting them. Yes, that is what I meant. Oak just curious, do those numbers account for the carryover from last year? I thought I read 2-ish MM brought over from 2020.

03-24-2021, 07:58 AM	#19
TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 18,978	Re: Rankins to J E T S ! Originally Posted by saintsfan1976 Yes, that is what I meant. Oak just curious, do those numbers account for the carryover from last year? I thought I read 2-ish MM brought over from 2020. Yes they do and the cap carryover from 2020 is roughly 4.1M. Generally when I post something here I check both Spotrak and Overthecap for the numbers then look for specific names on their roster to see if certain transactions have been accounted for. They both give a (51) and an all in number that accounts for contracts, dead money, carryover etc. I swag practice squad and draft class costs from what i have learned listening to people like Andrew Brandt who an NFL business analyst, and ex VP of the Packers, he is an absolute azzhole but knows his crap. I ignore content from people that make a living making content because they have to speculate to have new content. Drew's retirement is not factored in because that will not hit the books until 1 June to allow the Saints to split the dead money over this and next year reducing the dead hit to 11,325,000. His cap hit until that time at 12,225,000 meaning his retirement will relieve roughly 900k of cap burden for this year. Everyone is looking to be under an absolute number and that is not what is going to happen, Loomis needs to start 2021 with cap cushion to account for injuries requiring us to pick up free agents. According to Andrew that number is generally between 2-4M depending on GM.
	It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. ~ Henry David Thoreau

03-24-2021, 02:13 PM	#20
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 23,733	Re: Rankins to J E T S ! There goes a first round draft pick that was only worth a fifth round comp pick.