Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

I was referring to Brandin Cooks.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

https://media.giphy.com/media/a93jwI0wkWTQs/giphy.gif

My bad; Cooks missed six (6) games his rookie year, but he played in 16 and 16 games his remaining seasons with the Saints...

He was great until he got frustrated with his decreased targets as we were no longer able to get the downfield air yards we did his rookie season...


ProFootball Reference | WR Brandin Cooks

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

I think you read that wrong. The numbers show that only 2/3rd's of players drafted in the first round even end up starting at least half the games IN THEIR ENTIRE CAREER, not in their first year as a rookie. That means they are unable to beat out someone else on the roster at any point in their career. That's why I call it an inexact science. You base the decision on everything you have at hand. Even the very best of talent evaluators cannot predict what will happen in every case. Some players simply never meet their expectations for one reason or another.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

No doubt many of those that end up not being a success do start their rookie year. But nobody knows for certain if they'll be successful in the long run. Who knows, they may have a career as a platoon player or a backup. But, you are correct, approximately one third of first round draft choices by that definition fail. If there is some secret formula to avoid that it has yet to be found. The very best talent evaluators select players that do not become a success. You seem to expect perfection in the drafting process. That is unobtainable as there are humans involved in every aspect of the process. Teams and players are destined to fail to a certain degree.

I have a sneaking suspicion that you have a record of all first rounders that you would have picked. ;) I'd be curious as to how many of those started at least 50% of all games since they have been in the league. You may beat the average success rate. Or not.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

I agree.

Wirfs, Chase Young, Simmons, Kinlaw, DBrown etc were thrown into the fire early in 2020 … as 1st rounders, they should be.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

Saying a first round rookie should start his first year is different than the percentages Guido was referencing about career starting.

I would say it depends a bit on position and team demands on weather or not a rookie starts his first year and it should. QB for example. Chiefs didn’t fail with Mahomes and Packers didn’t fail with Rodgers and neither one started rookie season. Tampa could easily draft a development player this year that isn’t a starter for most games. Heck, look at Chris’s mock draft. If the falcons draft Chase this year he won’t be a starter over Julio or Ridley. A team might know they have a star at any position who is due a big payday in two seasons, but the have the chance to draft his replacement this year. That draftee won’t start.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

True, Boston. But I'm not only saying that. I agree with both Major and JP in that one would expect first rounders, other than QB's or others in some cases, to be a starter right away. What I am pointing out is that this is not always the case due to unforeseen circumstances (injury, legal, underperformance' better performance elsewhere). And I am also pointing out that they may not turn out to be starter material after being given the opportunity. It happens frequently. THAT is the reason behind it being an inexact science. Nobody can know with 100% certainty that any rookie will be a success. Nobody. Nada.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

I agree. They should be thrown in there and they usually are. But historically one in three do not succeed as a starter once given the chance. It happens not because the persons making the pick are incompetent, or because the coaching is incompetent. Its happens because nobody can predict with complete certainty how a 20 year old kid is going to adjust in a game of grown assed men regardless of how much talent or physical ability that kid might have.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

It’s also fair to point out that we are talking about guys that are 20-21 when they come into the league. A lot of physical and mental development happens still until 25 or so. Not surprising that first round draft picks get beat out by later picks sometime as that development occurs.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

Exactly!

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

I would agree but... These 1st round draft picks are heavily vetted by many organizations physically, characteristically, and cognitively. There are absolutely zero excuses for making a 1st round draft pick and it being a wash other than process failure (note i said wash, not failure to start year one). If a team is not 90% sure of what they are getting they shouldn't pick in the first round just to splash a headline, it is a waste of resources, value, and screws other rookies in the draft who are ready..

First round draft pics vs starting rookie season is very much a skewed stat and drafting is more an art than inexact science. What the stat fails to account for are teams that draft BPA and not PON and already have a starter which is generally a draft pick with a future season in mind, this is a deliberate pick and has nothing to do with a rookie being able to tie down a spot his first year in the league..

The stat also doesn't account for the type of talent a draft pick has, some of these players have so much raw talent and such an extremely high ceiling it is difficult to pass up but the team drafting them know they have a lot of work to do. First round draft picks being expected to start year 1 is a fan thing, its the fans need for instant gratification and a win now mentality.

We do continue to develop after our teens but its minor development. A 21 year old idiot will generally be a 25 year old idiot in 4 years, while maturation can certainly slow someone down and certainly make them a more thoughtful decision maker, the behavior modification process after the formative years is subject to the law of diminished returns. Have you made a 10, 20, 30 year high school reunion? Not many make dramatic change after 21, spend much time on social media or here :) reading the fits of 60+ year olds ( I have actually been called a Boomer here so younger isnt exactly better either:D)?

Good decision makers are rarely made, objectivity is a difficult trait to learn because it requires a person to overcome emotion.:bng:

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

Bingo.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

I was a troublesome child and a late bloomer who has spent the night in lockup before. If I had their kind of money I'd have been dead a long time ago. Thank goodness we were land rich and money poor.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

You are not alone brother. When my wife asks where I would be today had I not met her and I say dead, she doesn’t entirely get it. You do though.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

Probably not dead, but in a far less hospitable existence. Most likely suffering from polyester poisoning.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

Oh no, I'd certainly be dead!

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

I was referring to my rescue.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

So was Rugby 🤣

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

I’m with you Oak. A first round pick should be a contributor to the team. If not, it’s a miss. We can pontificate (fancy word of the day 😜) about what contribute means, but we are on the same page.

In fact, this goes along with the idea thrown out frequently that an NFL players career is about 4 years. If that was true, the league couldn’t maintain enough players to sustain itself if first round picks didn’t become players.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

You sir deserve a diploma for graduating with honors from the school of researching everything about the Saints.:itsgood:

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

Yet even the best evaluators miss on players at times. Even with all of the resources and information available it is impossible to know exactly how that player is going to adapt to professional ball on and off the field. Does that mean they don't know what they are doing? Hell, no. It simply means with all of their talent and knowledge they cannot read the future. That's why only two out of three players drafted in the first round eventually become regular starters. It's not the fault of the person doing the drafting. It is the fault of the person being drafted. And don't forget, there are players on the team doing their very best to make sure that rookie doesn't take their job.