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Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Originally Posted by AsylumGuido I am so glad that you brought up the 2017 draft, JP! We had seven (7) picks in that draft and six of the seven picks were in the top three rounds! The loan pick outside ...

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Old 05-10-2021, 12:23 PM   #1
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Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
I am so glad that you brought up the 2017 draft, JP! We had seven (7) picks in that draft and six of the seven picks were in the top three rounds! The loan pick outside of the first three rounds (6th for DE Muhahhud) was the only one of the bunch not to develop into starter material This supports the premise that moving out of the latter rounds into the upper rounds gives more chance for success. Beyond the very occasional Colston type hit in a late round, the Saints success has come in the top three rounds FAR more consistently than later.

2006 was a successful anomaly in the annals of Saints drafting with eight picks. Not only did they get lucky with Colston late, but Strief, as well. As the old saying goes, a blind hog can find an acorn. Reggie Bush and Roman Harper were successful picks in that draft per their round one and two selections. Jahri Evans was a pleasant surprise in round four. The three remaining players selected in rounds five and six played a disappointing THREE total games between them in a Saints uniform. But, not bad for the pre-Ireland era.
*lone

And you're wrong, Muhammad did develop as he was for the Colts what Trey What's His Name (As you so disrespectfully refer) Hendrickson-role...

Also, the Saints did learn their lesson the next year in finally releasing an old, incapable veteran in favor of Granderson, who took advantage of his snaps...

Sean is slowly learning as a coach in the NFL, you do have to put in the time and coach the rookies up as well, as it does pay off...
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Old 05-10-2021, 12:32 PM   #2
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Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft

Originally Posted by jeanpierre View Post
*lone

And you're wrong, Muhammad did develop as he was for the Colts what Trey What's His Name (As you so disrespectfully refer) Hendrickson-role...

Also, the Saints did learn their lesson the next year in finally releasing an old, incapable veteran in favor of Granderson, who took advantage of his snaps...

Sean is slowly learning as a coach in the NFL, you do have to put in the time and coach the rookies up as well, as it does pay off...
Thank you for the spelling correction! Too bad Muhammad didn't help the Saints.

Yes, 2017 was a tremendous draft class, not based upon the number of picks, but upon the top heavy rounds in which the picks were taken.
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Old 05-10-2021, 02:33 PM   #3
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Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
Thank you for the spelling correction! Too bad Muhammad didn't help the Saints.

Yes, 2017 was a tremendous draft class, not based upon the number of picks, but upon the top heavy rounds in which the picks were taken.
Okay, by that logic, what three do you get rid of out of the 2017 class?

Lattimore, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara, Anzalone, Hendrickson?


With regards to Day 3 picks, dismissing those picks as little to no value is simply short-sided and wrong...

Are the Saints as successful without some of these players taken in the later rounds?
  • RG Jahri Evans, R4

  • WRx Marques Colston, R7

  • RT Zach Strief, R7

  • LT Jermon Bushrod, R4

  • LG Carl Nicks, R5

  • P Thomas Morstead, R5

  • WRz Kenny Stills, R5

  • NT Tyeler Davison, R5

  • DT David Onyemata, R4

  • DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, R6

  • RB Boston Scott, R6

  • LB Kaden Elliss, R7

In fact, many of the early drafts were salvaged because of Day 3 picks...
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Old 05-10-2021, 04:13 PM   #4
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Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft

Originally Posted by jeanpierre View Post
Okay, by that logic, what three do you get rid of out of the 2017 class?

Lattimore, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara, Anzalone, Hendrickson?


With regards to Day 3 picks, dismissing those picks as little to no value is simply short-sided and wrong...

Are the Saints as successful without some of these players taken in the later rounds?
  • RG Jahri Evans, R4

  • WRx Marques Colston, R7

  • RT Zach Strief, R7

  • LT Jermon Bushrod, R4

  • LG Carl Nicks, R5

  • P Thomas Morstead, R5

  • WRz Kenny Stills, R5

  • NT Tyeler Davison, R5

  • DT David Onyemata, R4

  • DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, R6

  • RB Boston Scott, R6

  • LB Kaden Elliss, R7

In fact, many of the early drafts were salvaged because of Day 3 picks...
Don’t forget UDFA guys like Pierre Thomas! Lance Moore, Josh Hill, Chris Ivory. The Saints have had some nice success with undrafted players. Heck, iirc Jake Delhomme and Tom Dempsey were undrafted. I know I’m leaving out some, maybe Sammy Knight(?), and for that I’m sorry. I’ll take Pierre Thomas over Ricky Williams, Reggie Bush AND Mark Ingram, combined. Nothing wrong with the other three, but I’m very fond of unheralded talent that just gets work done without drama.

And no, this team wouldn’t have had as much success without those guys you’ve listed.
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Old 05-10-2021, 05:09 PM   #5
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Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft

Originally Posted by jeanpierre View Post
Okay, by that logic, what three do you get rid of out of the 2017 class?

Lattimore, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara, Anzalone, Hendrickson?


With regards to Day 3 picks, dismissing those picks as little to no value is simply short-sided and wrong...

Are the Saints as successful without some of these players taken in the later rounds?
  • RG Jahri Evans, R4

  • WRx Marques Colston, R7

  • RT Zach Strief, R7

  • LT Jermon Bushrod, R4

  • LG Carl Nicks, R5

  • P Thomas Morstead, R5

  • WRz Kenny Stills, R5

  • NT Tyeler Davison, R5

  • DT David Onyemata, R4

  • DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, R6

  • RB Boston Scott, R6

  • LB Kaden Elliss, R7

In fact, many of the early drafts were salvaged because of Day 3 picks...
As for Lattimore, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara, Anzalone, Hendrickson, I'd get rid of none of them. But, I'd continue to trade every 4th, 5th, and 6th rounder to move into the 3rd. Then use the extra 3rd or two to pick up a 2nd. Like I've been saying, you make your hay in the top three rounds statistically. You'll likely not always find partners wanting to trade down (they know better, too) so you'll obviously still have lower round picks occasionally.

Let's see, though. You listed 12 players over 15 years. A few were very impactful. Others were average, yet provided depth. No telling what could have been if some could have been turned into something better with an earlier round pick. And just think of all those others from those lower rounds that went to waste. Perhaps that extra championship or two!


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Old 05-10-2021, 10:42 PM   #6
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Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft

Whew, alright, let's do it this way...

So would y'all agree these are the most successful picks in the respective draft classes of the Sean Payton/Mickey Loomis tenure?



2006 Draft
  • RB Reggie Bush, R1

  • SS Roman Harper, R2 (Via Trade Back, Gained C Jeff Faine)

  • RG Jahri Evans, R4 (Via Trade Back, Gained NT Hollis Thomas)

  • DE Rob Ninkovich, R5

  • RT Zach Strief, R7

  • WR Marques Colston, R7 (*Compensatory)

2007 Draft Class
  • LT Jermon Bushrod, R4 (Via Trade of WR Donte Stallworth; If PHI re-signed DS, it'd been a R2 pick)

2008 Draft Class
  • DT Sedrick Ellis, R1 (Via Trade)

  • CB Tracy Porter, R2

  • LG Carl Nicks, R5 (Via Trade)

2009 Draft Class
  • CB Malcolm Jenkins, R1

  • P Thomas Morstead, R5 (Via Trade)

2010 Draft Class
  • CB Patrick Robinson, R1

  • TE Jimmy Graham, R3

2011 Draft Class
  • DE Cameron Jordan, R1

  • RB Mark Ingram Jr, R1 (Via Trade)

2012 Draft Class
  • DT Akiem Hicks, R3

2013 Draft Class
  • SS Kenny Vaccaro, R1

  • LT Terron Armstead, R3

  • WR Kenny Stills, R5

2014 Draft Class
  • WR Brandin Cooks, R1 (Via Trade)

2015 Draft Class
  • LT Andrus Peat, R1

  • CB P. J. Williams, R3 (Via Trade of Kenny Stills, Also Gained LB Dannell Ellerbe)

  • NT Tyeler Davison, R5 (Via Trade of Ben Grubbs)

2016 Draft Class
  • DT Sheldon Rankins, R1

  • WR Michael Thomas, R2

  • SS Vonn Bell, R2 (Via Trade)

  • DT David Onyemata, R4 (Via Trade with WAS)

2017 Draft Class
  • CB Marshon Lattimore, R1

  • LT Ryan Ramcyzk, R1 (Via Trade of Jimmy Graham)

  • FS Marcus Williams, R2

  • RB Alvin Kamara, R3 (Via Trade)

  • LB Alex Anzalone, R3

  • DE Trey Hendrickson, R3 (*Compensatory)

  • DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, R6

2018 Draft Class
  • DE Marcus Davenport, R1 (Via Trade)

  • WR Tre'Quan Smith, R3

  • RB Boston Scott, R6

  • OL Will Clapp, R7

2019 Draft Class
  • C Erik McCoy, R2 (Via Trade)

  • SS C. J. Gardner, R4 (Via Trade)

  • LB Kaden Elliss, R7

2020 Draft Class
  • C Cesar Ruiz, R1

  • LB Zack Baun, R3 (Via Trade)

  • TE Adam Trautman, R3 (*Compensatory Via Trade)

  • QB Tommy Stevens, R7 (Via Trade)

Do you feel some have been left off that should be on the list as they were successful picks?

We'll come to UDFAs later, we're debating draft picks and there value for now, agreed?
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Last edited by jeanpierre; 05-11-2021 at 09:09 AM..
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Old 05-11-2021, 08:35 AM   #7
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Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft

Originally Posted by jeanpierre View Post
Whew, alright, let's do it this way...

So would y'all agree these are the most successful picks in the respective draft classes of the Sean Payton/Mickey Loomis tenure?



2006 Draft
  • RB Reggie Bush, R1

  • SS Roman Harper, R2 (Via Trade Back, Gained C Jeff Faine)

  • RG Jahri Evans, R4 (Via Trade Back, Gained NT Hollis Thomas)

  • DE Rob Ninkovich, R5

  • RT Zach Strief, R7

  • WR Marques Colston, R7 (*Compensatory)

2007 Draft Class
  • LT Jermon Bushrod, R4 (Via Trade of WR Donte Stallworth; If PHI re-signed DS, it'd been a R2 pick)

2008 Draft Class
  • DT Sedrick Ellis, R1 (Via Trade)

  • CB Tracy Porter, R2

  • LG Carl Nicks, R5 (Via Trade)

2009 Draft Class
  • CB Malcolm Jenkins, R1

  • P Thomas Morstead, R5 (Via Trade)

2010 Draft Class
  • CB Patrick Robinson, R1

  • TE Jimmy Graham, R3

2011 Draft Class
  • DE Cameron Jordan, R1

  • RB Mark Ingram Jr, R1 (Via Trade)

2012 Draft Class
  • DT Akiem Hicks, R3

2013 Draft Class
  • SS Kenny Vaccaro, R1

  • LT Terron Armstead, R3

  • WR Kenny Stills, R5

2014 Draft Class
  • WR Brandin Cooks, R1 (Via Trade)

2015 Draft Class
  • LT Andrus Peat, R1

  • CB P. J. Williams, R3 (Via Trade of Kenny Stills, Also Gained LB Dannell Ellerbe)

  • NT Tyeler Davison, R5 (Via Trade of Ben Grubbs)

2016 Draft Class
  • DT Sheldon Rankins, R1

  • WR Michael Thomas, R2

  • SS Vonn Bell, R2 (Via Trade)

  • DT David Onyemata, R4 (Via Trade with WAS)

2017 Draft Class
  • CB Marshon Lattimore, R1

  • LT Ryan Ramcyzk, R1 (Via Trade of Jimmy Graham)

  • FS Marcus Williams, R2

  • RB Alvin Kamara, R3 (Via Trade)

  • LB Alex Anzalone, R3

  • DE Trey Hendrickson, R3 (*Compensatory)

  • DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, R6

2018 Draft Class
  • DE Marcus Davenport, R1 (Via Trade)

  • WR Tre'Quan Smith, R3

  • RB Boston Scott, R6

  • OL Will Clapp, R7

2019 Draft Class
  • C Erik McCoy, R2 (Via Trade)

  • SS C. J. Gardner, R4 (Via Trade)

  • LB Kaden Elliss, R7

2020 Draft Class
  • C Cesar Ruiz, R1

  • LB Zack Baun, R3 (Via Trade)

  • TE Adam Trautman, R3 (Via Trade)

  • QB Tommy Stevens, R7 (Via Trade)

Do you feel some have been left off that should be on the list as they were successful picks?

We'll come to UDFAs later, we're debating draft picks and there value for now, agreed?
That's 30 successful picks in the first three rounds. Then there's 15 listed from the final four rounds of which possibly eight can be called mildly successful or better. Those numbers are right around the league average. The success rate of picks after round three are historically much lower than those from the earlier rounds.

Throwing more later round picks at the wall might provide another success or two, but it would also result in many times more misses. Using those picks, instead, to move up into the first three rounds would give the team a much higher chance of individual success. You can still find the "diamonds in the rough", like Granderson, via UDFA.

A perfect example of volume of picks versus quality of picks can be seen with the Vikings. Since 2010 the Vikings have had more than the normally allotted seven draft picks every single year by trading down and accumulating more picks.

2010 8
2011 10
2012 10
2013 9
2014 10
2015 10
2016 8
2017 11
2018 8
2019 12
2020 15
2021 11

That's 122 picks over twelve years. They have only managed 13 Pro Bowl players over that period. What they did end up with is a lengthy list of players that are currently out of the league. Only 42 of those 122 have started at least one game. They have managed only four years with over eight wins, four playoff visits and only two playoff wins (yes, we know those two wins well).
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Old 05-11-2021, 09:04 AM   #8
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Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
That's 30 successful picks in the first three rounds. Then there's 15 listed from the final four rounds of which possibly eight can be called mildly successful or better. Those numbers are right around the league average. The success rate of picks after round three are historically much lower than those from the earlier rounds.

Throwing more later round picks at the wall might provide another success or two, but it would also result in many times more misses. Using those picks, instead, to move up into the first three rounds would give the team a much higher chance of individual success. You can still find the "diamonds in the rough", like Granderson, via UDFA.

A perfect example of volume of picks versus quality of picks can be seen with the Vikings. Since 2010 the Vikings have had more than the normally allotted seven draft picks every single year by trading down and accumulating more picks.

2010 8
2011 10
2012 10
2013 9
2014 10
2015 10
2016 8
2017 11
2018 8
2019 12
2020 15
2021 11

That's 122 picks over twelve years. They have only managed 13 Pro Bowl players over that period. What they did end up with is a lengthy list of players that are currently out of the league. Only 42 of those 122 have started at least one game. They have managed only four years with over eight wins, four playoff visits and only two playoff wins (yes, we know those two wins well).
Well, assign All-Pro recognitions based on Day drafted...

Then, pull the best player from each draft class, which day was that player drafted?
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Old 05-11-2021, 09:14 AM   #9
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Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft

Originally Posted by jeanpierre View Post
Well, assign All-Pro recognitions based on Day drafted...

Then, pull the best player from each draft class, which day was that player drafted?
All the All Pros were from the first two rounds except for Danielle Hunter, Blair Walsh and Everson Griffen.

You can do the best player pulling. That's subjective.

Vikings Draft History
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Old 05-11-2021, 09:12 AM   #10
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Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
That's 30 successful picks in the first three rounds. Then there's 15 listed from the final four rounds of which possibly eight can be called mildly successful or better. Those numbers are right around the league average. The success rate of picks after round three are historically much lower than those from the earlier rounds.

Throwing more later round picks at the wall might provide another success or two, but it would also result in many times more misses. Using those picks, instead, to move up into the first three rounds would give the team a much higher chance of individual success. You can still find the "diamonds in the rough", like Granderson, via UDFA.

A perfect example of volume of picks versus quality of picks can be seen with the Vikings. Since 2010 the Vikings have had more than the normally allotted seven draft picks every single year by trading down and accumulating more picks.

2010 8
2011 10
2012 10
2013 9
2014 10
2015 10
2016 8
2017 11
2018 8
2019 12
2020 15
2021 11

That's 122 picks over twelve years. They have only managed 13 Pro Bowl players over that period. What they did end up with is a lengthy list of players that are currently out of the league. Only 42 of those 122 have started at least one game. They have managed only four years with over eight wins, four playoff visits and only two playoff wins (yes, we know those two wins well).
But we're talking about the Saints, so you gotta keep the parameters of the experiment contained...

How the Saints, as cited earlier in the PFF article, do better with their draft picks than most teams and where (Day/Round) the Saints found success...

If the Vikings aren't drafting as well as they don't have the quality scoutings (Jeff Ireland) as the Saints have, then you're comparing Apples, Oranges...
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