Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft

SmashMouth · 05-05-2021, 04:02 PM

The New Orleans Saints are one of ten teams projected to earn multiple compensatory draft picks in 2022’s NFL draft in Las Vegas, per Over The Cap’s Nick Korte, though his chart doesn’t include comp picks received as part of the league’s recent incentivized minority hiring program.

New Orleans has already locked in a 2022 third rounder following the loss of Terry Fontenot, their pro personnel director who left for the open Atlanta Falcons general manager position. Teams that lose minority candidates to executive roles with other teams receive two third-round picks in subsequent draft cycles.

So that’s in addition to the comp picks Korte projects the Saints to recoup after losing defensive linemen Trey Hendrickson and Sheldon Rankins to the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets, respectively. At this early stage, the Saints are expected to receive a fourth rounder for Hendrickson and a sixth rounder for Rankins.

However, that could change. Korte adds that Hendrickson is one of six players whose comp pick could upgrade to a third rounder if he logs enough playing time in New York; that seems likely after he broke out last year, quickly surpassing his career snaps percentage of 32.8% (he played 53.4% of snaps in 2020). We’ll know for sure once the NFL announces comp picks next spring.

In the meantime, here are where the Saints are slotted in the 2022 NFL draft (not including the sixth rounder forfeited for COVID-19 protocols violations last season):

Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Round 3 (compensation for Fontenot)
Round 4
Round 4 (compensation for Hendrickson)
Round 5
Round 6 (compensation for Rankins)
Round 7

AsylumGuido · 05-05-2021, 04:19 PM

Sweet! Trade bait!

Rugby Saint II · 05-07-2021, 04:24 PM

We usually package several picks to move up go get the player they covet.

BakoSaint · 05-10-2021, 02:42 AM

We need to keep all these picks and trade back in the first round to get more. We have a lot holes on the roster. Every receiver but Thomas could be upgraded. We have nobody proven at TE. We have one proven LB. If we get someone like Richard Sherman at CB thats not a long term solution. We are in for cap hell next year too. We need all these picks.

AsylumGuido · 05-10-2021, 09:02 AM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

We need to keep all these picks and trade back in the first round to get more. We have a lot holes on the roster. Every receiver but Thomas could be upgraded. We have nobody proven at TE. We have one proven LB. If we get someone like Richard Sherman at CB thats not a long term solution. We are in for cap hell next year too. We need all these picks.

It is statistically proven that the success rate of draftees declines as their draft position moves downward. In addition, the success rate of picks after the third round are markedly lower than earlier rounds, and not markedly greater than that of undrafted free agents. To me it makes more sense to trade up picking a smaller number of players that have a much higher chance of success, while looking to fill holes in the UDFA market.

Regardless, Loomis and Payton have never traded down to accumulate picks so I doubt they will begin to do so at this point.

jeanpierre · 05-10-2021, 11:08 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

It is statistically proven that the success rate of draftees declines as their draft position moves downward. In addition, the success rate of picks after the third round are markedly lower than earlier rounds, and not markedly greater than that of undrafted free agents. To me it makes more sense to trade up picking a smaller number of players that have a much higher chance of success, while looking to fill holes in the UDFA market.

Regardless, Loomis and Payton have never traded down to accumulate picks so I doubt they will begin to do so at this point.

Statistics also show some teams do better with more draft picks than others and the Saints have been better when they have more picks (e.g. 2006, 2017 Drafts)...

Especially since Jeff Ireland was brought onboard, the scouting department has improved in its player assessments...

So it'd make more sense that if you're that successful with your picks to have more picks and not limit success by combining picks...

Source: PFF | Riske: A new look at historical draft success for all 32 NFL teams

Rugby Saint II · 05-10-2021, 12:35 PM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

Statistics also show some teams do better with more draft picks than others and the Saints have been better when they have more picks (e.g. 2006, 2017 Drafts)...

Especially since Jeff Ireland was brought onboard, the scouting department has improved in its player assessments...

So it'd make more sense that if you're that successful with your picks to have more picks and not limit success by combining picks...

Source: PFF | Riske: A new look at historical draft success for all 32 NFL teams

That makes sense jp. Personally I'd rather have a roster mostly full of the players I really wanted vs a full team of unknowns and a lower ceiling than moving up for the player that I really want on my team.

Edit: My mama always told me that you've got to have a vision of what you want and then make it happen.

gosaints1 · 05-10-2021, 01:10 PM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

Statistics also show some teams do better with more draft picks than others and the Saints have been better when they have more picks (e.g. 2006, 2017 Drafts)...

Especially since Jeff Ireland was brought onboard, the scouting department has improved in its player assessments...

So it'd make more sense that if you're that successful with your picks to have more picks and not limit success by combining picks...

Source: PFF | Riske: A new look at historical draft success for all 32 NFL teams

Yeah, I’ve read that article several times, it’s a good analysis. Quant guys are becoming more valuable to coaches and player personnel/scouting teams than ever before.

That being said, is it even mathematically/fiscally possible to build your starting 22’s from nothing but 1’s and 2’s? Give me a team full of Colston’s, Moore’s, Thomas’, Sproles, Bushrods, Evans’, etc... than a team full of Prima Donna #1’s.

jeanpierre · 05-10-2021, 01:17 PM

Originally Posted by gosaints1

Yeah, I’ve read that article several times, it’s a good analysis. Quant guys are becoming more valuable to coaches and player personnel/scouting teams than ever before.

That being said, is it even mathematically/fiscally possible to build your starting 22’s from nothing but 1’s and 2’s? Give me a team full of Colston’s, Moore’s, Thomas’, Sproles, Bushrods, Evans’, etc... than a team full of Prima Donna #1’s.

Well, for one example, when it comes to the pass rush of a 4-3 front, you've got to have six-seven guys rotating, staying fresh vs better offensive lines...

Last year for the Saints was a great example where we had all four of our DEs rotating in no more than a 70/30 split, and the DTs were nearly the same...

And that example showed quantity was every bit as important and effective as quality...

AsylumGuido · 05-10-2021, 01:17 PM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

Statistics also show some teams do better with more draft picks than others and the Saints have been better when they have more picks (e.g. 2006, 2017 Drafts)...

Especially since Jeff Ireland was brought onboard, the scouting department has improved in its player assessments...

So it'd make more sense that if you're that successful with your picks to have more picks and not limit success by combining picks...

Source: PFF | Riske: A new look at historical draft success for all 32 NFL teams

I am so glad that you brought up the 2017 draft, JP! We had seven (7) picks in that draft and six of the seven picks were in the top three rounds! The loan pick outside of the first three rounds (6th for DE Muhahhud) was the only one of the bunch not to develop into starter material This supports the premise that moving out of the latter rounds into the upper rounds gives more chance for success. Beyond the very occasional Colston type hit in a late round, the Saints success has come in the top three rounds FAR more consistently than later.

2006 was a successful anomaly in the annals of Saints drafting with eight picks. Not only did they get lucky with Colston late, but Strief, as well. As the old saying goes, a blind hog can find an acorn. Reggie Bush and Roman Harper were successful picks in that draft per their round one and two selections. Jahri Evans was a pleasant surprise in round four. The three remaining players selected in rounds five and six played a disappointing THREE total games between them in a Saints uniform. But, not bad for the pre-Ireland era.

05-05-2021, 04:19 PM	#2
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,274	Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft Sweet! Trade bait! Rugby Saint II likes this.

05-07-2021, 04:24 PM	#3
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,073	Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft We usually package several picks to move up go get the player they covet. AsylumGuido likes this.

05-10-2021, 02:42 AM	#4
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,173	Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft We need to keep all these picks and trade back in the first round to get more. We have a lot holes on the roster. Every receiver but Thomas could be upgraded. We have nobody proven at TE. We have one proven LB. If we get someone like Richard Sherman at CB thats not a long term solution. We are in for cap hell next year too. We need all these picks. jeanpierre likes this.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,173

05-10-2021, 09:02 AM	#5
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,274	Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft Originally Posted by BakoSaint We need to keep all these picks and trade back in the first round to get more. We have a lot holes on the roster. Every receiver but Thomas could be upgraded. We have nobody proven at TE. We have one proven LB. If we get someone like Richard Sherman at CB thats not a long term solution. We are in for cap hell next year too. We need all these picks. It is statistically proven that the success rate of draftees declines as their draft position moves downward. In addition, the success rate of picks after the third round are markedly lower than earlier rounds, and not markedly greater than that of undrafted free agents. To me it makes more sense to trade up picking a smaller number of players that have a much higher chance of success, while looking to fill holes in the UDFA market. Regardless, Loomis and Payton have never traded down to accumulate picks so I doubt they will begin to do so at this point.

05-10-2021, 11:08 AM	#6
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft Originally Posted by AsylumGuido It is statistically proven that the success rate of draftees declines as their draft position moves downward. In addition, the success rate of picks after the third round are markedly lower than earlier rounds, and not markedly greater than that of undrafted free agents. To me it makes more sense to trade up picking a smaller number of players that have a much higher chance of success, while looking to fill holes in the UDFA market. Regardless, Loomis and Payton have never traded down to accumulate picks so I doubt they will begin to do so at this point. Statistics also show some teams do better with more draft picks than others and the Saints have been better when they have more picks (e.g. 2006, 2017 Drafts)... Especially since Jeff Ireland was brought onboard, the scouting department has improved in its player assessments... So it'd make more sense that if you're that successful with your picks to have more picks and not limit success by combining picks... Source: PFF \| Riske: A new look at historical draft success for all 32 NFL teams gosaints1, K Major and Boston Saint like this.
	Last edited by jeanpierre; 05-10-2021 at 11:22 AM..

05-05-2021, 04:02 PM	#1
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,201 Blog Entries: 29	Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft The New Orleans Saints are one of ten teams projected to earn multiple compensatory draft picks in 2022’s NFL draft in Las Vegas, per Over The Cap’s Nick Korte, though his chart doesn’t include comp picks received as part of the league’s recent incentivized minority hiring program. New Orleans has already locked in a 2022 third rounder following the loss of Terry Fontenot, their pro personnel director who left for the open Atlanta Falcons general manager position. Teams that lose minority candidates to executive roles with other teams receive two third-round picks in subsequent draft cycles. So that’s in addition to the comp picks Korte projects the Saints to recoup after losing defensive linemen Trey Hendrickson and Sheldon Rankins to the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets, respectively. At this early stage, the Saints are expected to receive a fourth rounder for Hendrickson and a sixth rounder for Rankins. However, that could change. Korte adds that Hendrickson is one of six players whose comp pick could upgrade to a third rounder if he logs enough playing time in New York; that seems likely after he broke out last year, quickly surpassing his career snaps percentage of 32.8% (he played 53.4% of snaps in 2020). We’ll know for sure once the NFL announces comp picks next spring. In the meantime, here are where the Saints are slotted in the 2022 NFL draft (not including the sixth rounder forfeited for COVID-19 protocols violations last season): Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 3 (compensation for Fontenot) Round 4 Round 4 (compensation for Hendrickson) Round 5 Round 6 (compensation for Rankins) Round 7 jeanpierre likes this.

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05-10-2021, 12:35 PM	#7
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,073	Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft Originally Posted by jeanpierre Statistics also show some teams do better with more draft picks than others and the Saints have been better when they have more picks (e.g. 2006, 2017 Drafts)... Especially since Jeff Ireland was brought onboard, the scouting department has improved in its player assessments... So it'd make more sense that if you're that successful with your picks to have more picks and not limit success by combining picks... Source: PFF \| Riske: A new look at historical draft success for all 32 NFL teams That makes sense jp. Personally I'd rather have a roster mostly full of the players I really wanted vs a full team of unknowns and a lower ceiling than moving up for the player that I really want on my team. Edit: My mama always told me that you've got to have a vision of what you want and then make it happen. gosaints1 likes this.

05-10-2021, 01:10 PM	#8
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576	Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft Originally Posted by jeanpierre Statistics also show some teams do better with more draft picks than others and the Saints have been better when they have more picks (e.g. 2006, 2017 Drafts)... Especially since Jeff Ireland was brought onboard, the scouting department has improved in its player assessments... So it'd make more sense that if you're that successful with your picks to have more picks and not limit success by combining picks... Source: PFF \| Riske: A new look at historical draft success for all 32 NFL teams Yeah, I’ve read that article several times, it’s a good analysis. Quant guys are becoming more valuable to coaches and player personnel/scouting teams than ever before. That being said, is it even mathematically/fiscally possible to build your starting 22’s from nothing but 1’s and 2’s? Give me a team full of Colston’s, Moore’s, Thomas’, Sproles, Bushrods, Evans’, etc... than a team full of Prima Donna #1’s. jeanpierre likes this.
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576

05-10-2021, 01:17 PM	#9
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft Originally Posted by gosaints1 Yeah, I’ve read that article several times, it’s a good analysis. Quant guys are becoming more valuable to coaches and player personnel/scouting teams than ever before. That being said, is it even mathematically/fiscally possible to build your starting 22’s from nothing but 1’s and 2’s? Give me a team full of Colston’s, Moore’s, Thomas’, Sproles, Bushrods, Evans’, etc... than a team full of Prima Donna #1’s. Well, for one example, when it comes to the pass rush of a 4-3 front, you've got to have six-seven guys rotating, staying fresh vs better offensive lines... Last year for the Saints was a great example where we had all four of our DEs rotating in no more than a 70/30 split, and the DTs were nearly the same... And that example showed quantity was every bit as important and effective as quality... gosaints1 likes this.