Michael Thomas to IR

BakoSaint · 11-05-2022, 02:10 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

And this is the most interesting question in the entire scenario. What number would that $15.5 million need to be cut down to to keep the player and will the player accept that number?

SFIAH

All the signing bonus and money converted to bonus in restructures that we have already given to Michael Thomas is a sunk cost. Converting the $15.5 million to guarantee money via a prorated bonus in a restructure would be a bad move, because no sane franchise would offer $15.5 million for one year to a player who has missed 40 of their last 50 games even if he has the level of talent that an RG3, Victor Cruz, Chad Pennington, Julius Thomas, Terrell Davis, Todd Gurley, Al Toon, Sterling Sharpe, Bo Jackson, OBJ, etc had early in their careers.

I think a fair salary reduction for Michael Thomas for 2023 would be between $5-10 million on a prove it deal. Maybe $2 million of it could be guaranteed, a small bonus for agreeing to restructure. The exact amount would depend on a physical and how his recovery is looking. Guaranteeing him $14 million by restructuring most of his 2023 salary to a prorated bonus would save a few bucks in the short term but be a horrible gamble in the long term. There is a small 250k roster bonus due to Thomas in March 2023 but whether or not we pay that is not a big deal since its small money. If Thomas will not to take a pay cut, we can hold onto him until the season is about to start and then cut him them if he is not looking incredibly healthy and dominating preseason. The contract he would get as a late cut next summer coming off 3 years of injury would certainly not be $15.5 million. Therefore, he would have to consider taking the pay cut rather than testing the market with his injury history.

There is the argument though that we should just designate him a post June 1 cut if we don't see ourselves as a Super Bowl contender in 2023 after numerous tough salary cap cuts, possibly losing Dalton or having to overpay him, possibly no 1st round pick if there is not a bidding war for Payton, etc. Thomas has a void year in 2025 anyway. If he somehow recovered in 2023 which I think is less than a 10% chance historically, he still is not a great long term bet to still be good in 2025 or 2026 if we are rebuilding, and even if he was he is a free agent in 2025 anyway. High risk - high reward lottery ticket expenses on injured but talented veterans are sometimes a good play for a team that is right there on the edge of winning it all and needs one more star to win but doesn't have the cap money or picks to pay full price for that star, so they buy a fractional chance of a star at a fraction of the price. See Rams last year with OBJ. But we don't have Matt Stafford. We don't have Aaron Donald. I am not sure the OBJ type gamble makes sense for us, so maybe we just take our cap medicine and rebuild if he would take a big reduction.

11-05-2022, 02:10 PM	#11
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,391	Re: Michael Thomas to IR Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL And this is the most interesting question in the entire scenario. What number would that $15.5 million need to be cut down to to keep the player and will the player accept that number? SFIAH All the signing bonus and money converted to bonus in restructures that we have already given to Michael Thomas is a sunk cost. Converting the $15.5 million to guarantee money via a prorated bonus in a restructure would be a bad move, because no sane franchise would offer $15.5 million for one year to a player who has missed 40 of their last 50 games even if he has the level of talent that an RG3, Victor Cruz, Chad Pennington, Julius Thomas, Terrell Davis, Todd Gurley, Al Toon, Sterling Sharpe, Bo Jackson, OBJ, etc had early in their careers. I think a fair salary reduction for Michael Thomas for 2023 would be between $5-10 million on a prove it deal. Maybe $2 million of it could be guaranteed, a small bonus for agreeing to restructure. The exact amount would depend on a physical and how his recovery is looking. Guaranteeing him $14 million by restructuring most of his 2023 salary to a prorated bonus would save a few bucks in the short term but be a horrible gamble in the long term. There is a small 250k roster bonus due to Thomas in March 2023 but whether or not we pay that is not a big deal since its small money. If Thomas will not to take a pay cut, we can hold onto him until the season is about to start and then cut him them if he is not looking incredibly healthy and dominating preseason. The contract he would get as a late cut next summer coming off 3 years of injury would certainly not be $15.5 million. Therefore, he would have to consider taking the pay cut rather than testing the market with his injury history. There is the argument though that we should just designate him a post June 1 cut if we don't see ourselves as a Super Bowl contender in 2023 after numerous tough salary cap cuts, possibly losing Dalton or having to overpay him, possibly no 1st round pick if there is not a bidding war for Payton, etc. Thomas has a void year in 2025 anyway. If he somehow recovered in 2023 which I think is less than a 10% chance historically, he still is not a great long term bet to still be good in 2025 or 2026 if we are rebuilding, and even if he was he is a free agent in 2025 anyway. High risk - high reward lottery ticket expenses on injured but talented veterans are sometimes a good play for a team that is right there on the edge of winning it all and needs one more star to win but doesn't have the cap money or picks to pay full price for that star, so they buy a fractional chance of a star at a fraction of the price. See Rams last year with OBJ. But we don't have Matt Stafford. We don't have Aaron Donald. I am not sure the OBJ type gamble makes sense for us, so maybe we just take our cap medicine and rebuild if he would take a big reduction.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,391