SmashMouth

No one yet... and this question should've been added to my question in the other thread. I suppose that is telling, neaux?

BakoSaint

All this is true but nobody can account for parallel universes and alternate realities. I can only take data from our reality. In some parallel universe Archie Manning had 3 daughters, Urban Meyer stayed retired after Florida with a bad heart scan, Chad Pennington stayed healthy and won the AFC East every year, etc, but I can't account for that. Trevor Lawrence might have been great on the Bengals. Joe Burrow might have been mediocre on the Jags. If we had a great offensive coach perhaps we could put lipstick on a pig and make Sam Darnold or Zach Wilson work. But its pretty obvious we don't have a great offensive coach. We are perhaps in Jets and Jags territory. But Mike White has been decent with the Jets. Gardner Minshew was decent with the Jags. So if anything this helps my argument. Especially if you don't have great offensive coaching and QB development capacity, its a horrible decision to waste tons of resources on a top 4 pick type super elite QB prospect, when only one in the league has panned out, and your capacity to develop one is questionable.

Also everything you said about pro football applies to college too. Lawrence and Burrow might have been lousy college QBs if they went to Rutgers and Iowa State, and Brock Purdy and Mike White might have been top 4 picks if they went to Clemson and LSU. Its hard to tell who will be good with all the different systems at the college and pro levels these days. So why pay top dollar for a performance that relied on one system in college and will rely on another in the pros? Why not get some QB who might not have been in the perfect system for them in college, and focus on using the draft capital you save to get them the perfect system in the NFL?

If many QBs are system QBs, and we clearly don't have a good system, we should focus on bringing in coaches with a good system, not investing heavily in a QB who may only have succeeded because of their college system and will likely fail in our crappy pro system. We need to attract a good coach. What will do that is having lots of cap space, lots of draft picks, and a core of cheap talented young players to build around. That means we need to rebuild and take the painful cap hits to offload aging players and underperformers.

But even when we have a good system, for example I think Kyle Shannahan has brought a good offensive system to SF, the QB position is incredibly unpredictable. The 49ers might have a Superbowl dynasty if they didn't blow 3 1st round picks on Trey Lance. The Dolphins used those picks to acquire 3 pro bowl players. Imagine the 49ers with 3 more pro bowlers and Brock Purdy. I think there is a fair argument to be made that teams betting the farm on top 4 pick type QBs are overpaying and making a big mistake. As more and more QBs rely on their mobility and offensive systems become more diverse with less west coast style pocket passing, the QB position may be becoming more like the RB position where success is unpredictable, careers can be short, the blocking and offensive system can be key, with the right system it can be possible to plug and play a new starter at times, and youth and low cost are as valuable assets as any. I am not saying QBs are becoming running backs, but they are becoming closer to that, and less of the 15 year franchise QB 1st overall pick formula of years past.

Getting a cheap young QB could still be valuable even if we don't have a good offensive system to develop one. Belichick was no offensive guru when Tom Brady was drafted. Peyton Manning's first coach was Jim Mora. The Eagles changed coaches after drafting Hurts, the Cowboys after Prescott, etc. Some QBs can succeed in spite of the system randomly, and some can be saved when someone with a better system comes in a year or two later. I just think a cheap option at QB may be smart at this point given the unpredictability I have highlighted and our status as a cap-poor pick-poor team.

Rugby Saint II

That just goes to show why you cannot mortgage the future to move up for a quarterback. One in four are not good odds.