BakoSaint

In most recent NFL drafts 1-3 of the top 4 picks are Quarterbacks. Some teams like San Francisco have executed Ricky Williams or Herscel Walker style trades to move up for QBs at the top of the first round lately and most of those trades have worked out worse than the trades for Ricky Williams and Herschel Walker.

At this point I think Joe Burrow is the only elite QB left in the NFL who was a top 4 overall pick. Yes there is Kyler Murray but other than his contract not much is eite, he got elite receivers, went .500 a lot, has done nothing in the playoffs, and now tore his ACL. Sam Bradford and Matt Ryan are no longer elite. The trend extends to the #5 overall pick if we dont count Tua as elite.
Clearly as a pro Tua has been inconsistent, injury prone, and has needed insane weapons to look above average.

So, I think this should change how we look at our long term QB problem. With different pocket and mobile options for qb success in the nfl, and with more spread offenses in college and 7-on-7 camps before college, the quarterback position may be becoming harder to predict, with more options and less chance of success. Yet, teams have been acting like they can predict the right qb and making big moves and or passing up big trade value to draft guys like Trey Lance and Zach Wilson. Even the annointed sure thing Trevor Lawrence is looking mediocre. Tank for Tua was lucky to get a Burrow bailout because Tua does not look like a sure thing. Recent top 4 busts and question marks include Zach Wilson, Lawrence, Lance, Mayfield, Darnold, Trubisky, Goff, Mariota, Winston, and Wentz.

Some of the best QBs in the NFL in recent years like Hurts, Brady, Jackson, Prescott, and before his recent implosion Russell Wilson were later round picks. Many others were early to mid 1st round picks but not top 5 such as Maholmes, Watson, Hebert, Rodgers, and Allen.

So, I think this indicates maybe we should not consider any kind of blockbuster Trey Lance style trade to mortgage years of draft stock to move up for a top 4 pick under the delusion of sure things. If we get a top 3 pick on our own in 2024, it could be smart to trade back out of it if some team offer us such a deal. QBs from 6th overall to early 2nd round may cost much less than top picks and have similar chance to succeed. If we like a qb who is available at the 8th or 12th pick or something, trading to that position will cost a lot less. And a mobile qb in the 2nd or 3rd round could be a value too.

I think GMs are afraid to trade back and pass on ‘their guy’ but in reality more teams in the last 10 years have have done franchise altering damage with high qb picks than franchise changing improvement. Burrow is the only resounding success. So unless the top qb’s last name is manning or his last season he led the greatest offense in the history of college football like Burrow, I dont think a qb is worth the cost of trading up to top 4, or refusing to trade down from top 4. Trends can be anomalies and there will be more Peyton Mannings in the future probably who live up to #1, but maybe not enough. I think that we need a young qb, but we should also consider value and our ability to also have the resources to acquire a supporting cast. Even if a team finds the next peyton manning with a top 4 overall pick qb, which 90% dont seem to find, than Peyton Manning becomes Archie Manning or Lions Matt Stafford without the supporting cast.

Maybe trading Payton will net us a draft pick high enough to take the 4th Qb selected in the draft without bit trade up costs and maybe the 4th Qb taken will have about a 23-24% chance to be the best of the 4, given how increasingly unpredictable the qb position is becoming.