Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Saints' Cap Management 101 - Efficiently Maximizing Cap Growth Trends

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Let's be serious here. No Saints salary outlook is truly daunting. Only so to the uninformed.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

If we were the Patriots the media wouldn’t say what they say about us every year when it comes to the cap. The media hates New Orleans.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

The media has changed in one vital way in the 40 years since I was in the fold. Accuracy and knowledge of the subject of which you are reporting has vanished as a prerequisite. Sure, there are some very good media types that know their stuff, but they are the very rare exception rather than the rule. I feel it is more ignorance than hatred on their part. But, no doubt, some hatred is there, as well.

Haters are always going to hate. ;)

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

It's a failure of logic to see the Saints making the same few moves over and over, borrowing money from future salary caps via restructures and trading up in the draft, and then declaring the Saints grand chess masters and citing as evidence instances where other teams made similar moves less frequently. Actually, being able to utilize a wider variety of moves to more positive results is a sign of a chess master. The guy who hasn't won the tournament in 13 years because he keeps making the same moves every game is not a master, even when those who are masters occasionally make that same signature move when the situation is more appropriate for it, or to have more variety and be less predictable and strike a balance.

Always borrowing money from future cap years since salary caps are growing is the most effecient way to manage the salary cap if you assume two things you cannot assume. 1. You will never want to cut, trade, or let walk in free agency a highly compensated player. 2. You want to balance your spending evenly year to year.

1 is a problem because sometimes you do want to cut, trade, or let walk a player who is aging, has off field issues, injuries, or doesn't fit your current needs. But if you have borrowed $30 million from future caps against that player accounted for in far off void years, all that cash becomes due if you move on. Of course, every team takes this risk on a freshly minted big contract, but they only give those contracts to players in their prime who they are very confident in. The Saints contracts are catholic marriages and they renew their vows annually with restructures so even moving on in year 3 or 4 or not resigning at the end of the deal is prohibitive because of all the prorated restructure and void years accumulated over the contract. If another team had to move on from a big contract, like say the situation the Broncos may face with Russ Wilson, part of the strategy to absorb the cap hit is to restructure other contracts to make up the difference and spread out the pain. But for the Saints every contract is already restructured annually just to get under the cap. If the Rams were run like the Saints, all their fans would still be hyping Todd Gurley's return to 2019 form they expect in 2023, because moving on would not have been an option. If the Falcons were run like the Saints, they would still be paying Matt Ryan $40 million or something and Julio Jones $20 million, because the cap hits to move on would have bee impossible to absorb. I am not sure exactly how the NFL rules work on this but it might even be possible for the Saints to default on the salary cap. Imagine if a highly paid Saint with a lot of prorated money had a brutal injury and retired, or a felony conviction where they had to be cut, or something like that, causing a $50 million cap hit, and all our contracts were already restructured, and any other cut would actually cause a larger hit to our cap. We could be the first team in league history to default on the cap. Or we could have a situation where we have the #1 overall pick in the draft but can't afford to sign the player because we can't get under the cap. Those are worst fears, but the general situation is we can't afford to move on from our Matt Ryan's, Julio Jones, Carson Wentz, and Todd Gurleys.

2 is a problem also. Yes if we spend the future cap now, and the future cap is 20% bigger, we can spend 20% more in theory. But that assumes steady spending. Another team can spend modestly, avoid spending the future cap for now, and then when they see their window, they can spend 100% of the current cap in the current year and that 120% future cap and best our 120% with their 220%. That is what the Bucs did, going from paupers to a super team during a brief run, as we chugged along with business as usual. There will always be a couple teams in the league coming out of partial rebuilds with cash to spare and then going all in and spending more present and future money in a year than our strategy of always spending present money in the past can match. If we want to try for perennial wildcard team, our strategy might work if not for the catholic marriages to the likes of Peat and Thomas. But it won't give us an advantage against teams that pick their moment to go all in.

Yes the Ram's made a Saints-like move restructuring Cooper Kupper. But if your style of chess is to move your bishop on almost all turns and a chess master moves their bishop occasionally, that does not make you the real master. The Rams have a ring that is barely over a year old. The Rams took their salary cap medicine moving on from aging players in expensive contracts in Jalen Ramsey, Allen Robinson, and Bobby Wagner, they are primarily rebuilding. They freed up a little house money with one restructure, but at the same time they are doing all the things we refuse to do, and they have results to show for it. The Bucs are rebuilding too. The Chiefs let expensive players walk and traded Tyreek Hill whose personal conduct issues have shockingly as a Michael Thomas limp have resurfaced. We are not chess masters. We are predictable, leveraged, and illiquid where other teams that seem to occasionally imitate us as actually successfully balancing debt and liquidity to remain flexible organizations capable of investing and divesting strategically.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

The Saints are one of the most successful franchises over the last 20 years. Teams like the Jags, Lions, and Browns have had plenty of cap flexibility over the course of the last decade. What has it got them? What exactly has the Saints situation kept them from doing? We were plays away from a Super Bowl multiple times. You’d think we were bottom feeders because of how we manage the cap with the way some y’all talk about it. The Rams did everything many of y’all don’t want to do to win a Super Bowl: max out the cap and mortgage the future. They brought in big names on big contracts. That fiscally responsible approach only works when you have a Tom Brady or a Patrick Mahomes and a roster that actually buys into that ideology.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

I repeat ...

https://media1.giphy.com/media/LOWLR...giphy.gif&ct=g

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

The Saints have not been utilizing their current strategy for 20 years. In the early years the Saints were a young team eager to move on from aging vets even if it meant taking big cap hits. We got rid of Brooks, Horn, etc. We didn't trade up in the draft as much and we founds gems like Evans and Nicks in the middle rounds. We had the flexibility to trade players like Ricky Williams and Jimmy Graham because we hadn't restructure their contracts to maximize prorated money and the more modest cap hits implied were manageable under our less leveraged salary cap. Somehow over the years we became this king of debt team. Perhaps Loomis worried he had blown Brees' final window for a championship with blunders like Jarius Byrd and he wanted to make one final push. Then when Brees retired he couldn't bear a reset and went full speed ahead. The Saints success was likely do to Brees and Payton. Now with the Raiders coach and QB and a worsening cap strategy, we may very well become the bottom feeders. If the last 12 years we don't have a ring and our trend is downward. So sorry if I want to imitate teams that do have a ring in those years now crown Loomis the top genius.

The Rams strategy has been different from ours. The Rams went through a rebuild, cleaned up their salary cap, and accumulated draft picks. They built a young core of Goff, Gurley, Donald, and Kupp while staying well under the salary cap. Then seeing a window while Goff was on his rookie deal, they went on a spending spree and built a super team with the consequences to be damned. They almost made it but were fairly evenly matched with us even with RG as the 12th man and not a match for the Patriots. Then Goff and Gurley fell apart after that year. Still at the time their salary cap was leveraged but not as leveraged as ours is now, and they saw they still had a chance at some window with Donald as the best defender in the league, Ramsey among the best, and Kupp a top receiver. So they took their salary cap medicine to get rid of Goff and Gurley despite very painful cap hits that hurt them in the present, and they made a big move for Stafford structuring the contract so it was cheap in the present and knowing it would be an anchor on their cap situation later. With Stafford they made one more run and won it all. Then they added Robinson and Wagner to try a repeat, and Stafford broke down. Now they realize they are too leveraged and need to start over and they took cap hits to get rid of Robinson, Ramsey, and Wagner. The Rams are playing a timing game with the salary cap and it has worked. They have never gotten so leveraged that they could not move on from a player who was clearly no longer worth his pay, until now with Stafford probably, and now that they see that they are rebuilding. The Saints are duct taping a brick to the accelerator and that is not working. There are two strategies in this league that can work. The Chiefs where you know your QB makes you a contender every year so you keep steady and stay out of trouble with the cap. Then there is the Rams/Bucs where you rebuild, stockpile cash, draft young talent, max the credit cards when you hit your window until you are too old and broke, then rinse and repeat. Both those strategies win championships. Ours hasn't won anything more than the bottom feeder the last 12 years, and without Brees and Payton we may be bottom feeders if we can't move on from bad contracts and don't have the patience to plan for tomorrow.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

I prefer the next line, the one that's not about Michael Thomas.

Oh, and the line after that, the other one that is definitely not about Michael Thomas.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

LOL! Do any of you truly take the time to read that drivel?

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TSDR

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Nope … just figured it would probably help to lighten the mood for anyone caught up in another Bako vortex.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

The thing is, nobody makes a thoughtful counter argument to my two key assertions about the recent Loomis cap strategy: that is makes us unable to move on from bad contracts and that running year to year on credit we can’t match teams that build up a savings under the cap and then combine savings and credit at once to go all in. People just reply with tik tok memes and raving madness about how any strategy but Loomis’ will make us become the Browns or Lions. It’s like debating teenagers. I am beginning to wonder if Guido is two kids standing on eachothers shoulders in a trenchcoat pretending to be an adult.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Yes people do make thoughtful counter arguments Bako, you just refuse to acknowledge them or give them any validity. Additionally when you make statements about the Saints cutting people's feet off and calling parts of their staff the worst in the history of the NFL then turn around and say other user's posts are like arguing with teenagers it's telling about your nature. I always thought Guido was the King when it comes to lacking self awareness...but now I think you might have that crown.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

It's a waste to try to debate this guy, Boston. He has HIS idea of how HE wants things run. Fine. But that isn't the way things are run and that's not the way most informed people want things run. This guy posts the same negative crap over and over and over again. Does he not get the idea that most people do not buy into his philosophies nor his vile diatribes over Saints leadership? This guy needs to face the fact that if he wants a team that runs things the way he thinks they need run he might want to shop around for one of the bottom feeders to support because Loomis and gang aren't going anywhere. And Loomis and Harley's way of doing business is quickly becoming the norm so perhaps another sport might be more to this guy's liking.

Not to mention this loser called my mother a cheap whore. There's always that.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Point A: We can’t move on from bad contracts.

Who’s contract do we need to move right now that we want to but can’t? Just because there’s a player that YOU want gone with a big cap hit number doesn’t mean that that’s what the front office wants, nor does it mean that’s what is best for this team. We’ve been able to go out and grab the players we want with relatively little issue and whenever we truly are ready for a rebuild the strategy can change to cap maximization without a hiccup.

Point B: We can’t match teams that save up money.

Like who? The Bears? The Panthers? The Jaguars? The Lions? The Colts? Because the Chiefs have $652k in cap space right now. The Bills have $1.4 million. We actually have $14 million…so I’m not sure who we’re trying to keep up with and why.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

BURN!!!:biggun:

That's a great argument for a third grader. :rolleyes:

Bako does seem to have a slanted view of the Saints.



It's a good thing he didn't talk about my mama. :biggun:

Great come back Rez.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

So for Point A, the contracts we should move on from in my opinion are those of Andrus Peat, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Taysom Hill. Everyone can have their own opinions but those are the contracts that stand out to me. But the exact players are not important, the real question is could we move on from any bad contract if we wanted to. I don't see it as a reasonable defense to say we don't have any bad contracts and we never will have any bad contracts so it doesnt matter. Every team has bad contracts, and when you future caps are already more leveraged than any other team and your bad contracts are getting renegotiated every year to backload more money that will come due if you move on, it makes it hard to get out of a bad contract when and when you have one. The dead cap if we cut those players is as follows: Thomas $32m, Peat $21m, Hill $24m, Kamara $25m, and Winston $15m. Thomas has 3 consecutive years of injury missing 80% of his games overall in that time. Peat averages 12 games played per season his entire career and our oline will never not have instability and injury shuffles that negatively affect every other olineman as long as he is around. Winston is QB whose season has been ended by injuries 2 years in a row playing backup on a team with a youngish starter, a 4th round pick we traded up for, and another backup option in Hill, way too much redundancy for a guy we would bench Andy Dalton to bring back last year. Most people thought the Saints would move on from Peat, Thomas, and Winston this offseason but instead we kept all 3 because it allowed us to hold off the credit card bill one more year. Logic says thats why we did it, not because we love all 3 players. All I see the last few years is we can only move on from our short term deals. Whenever a player is with the team long on a big contract we restructure and backload the contract all to hell and we can never move on because its never cheaper to move on than to restructure if you are so far above the cap you can only afford to live one cap year at a time. The only long term player we could move on from was Armstead and thats because he wasn't washed and the bidding war therefore made it more expensive to keep him. We have a system set up that selects FOR retaining washed players and liabilities.

Kamara's peers McCaffery, Cook, and Elliott have all been cut or traded away. Nobody in this league commits big money to an aging RB whose stats have already begun to decline. Yet here we are with Kamara associated with $25 million dead cap if we move on. And none of those other RBs are in line for 6+ game suspensions. Not only did we not look to reduce the money due to Kamara this offseason, we increase the money due in reality. Kamara would have lost game checks when suspended, but instead we converted 90% of his salary to a bonus due to our cap situation. What that means is his game checks go from about $500,000 to more like $50,000 so we figured out a way to get a declining RB 90% of his pay while suspended for assault, while other teams with similar RBs found a way to move on. Kamara is due to $19 million next year, but don't worry, we can restructure and bring it down to $11 million by guaranteeing him another $8 million even if he commits another assault and making his dead cap number more like $32 million in the 2024-2025 offseason when he will be even older and in a running back by committee.

Taysom Hill is very injury prone over his college and pro career. He is also much older, about Cam Newtons age. He is also a player whose best attributes are power running and special teams returns and coverage, not very safe positions against injury. We tried him as a starting QB and it did not work. Then we tried him as a TE and he got beat out for the #1 gig by an undrafted free agent converted WR. He is dangerous with the ball but he just isn't great at running routes or catching passes. So what are we paying $10-15 million a year for? An injury riddled 33 year old running back who has never achieved 100 rushing attempts but racks up eye popping highlights in a few games against bad defenses while absolutely disappearing in other games? A backup TE who managed 77 yards receiving on the season? A backup QB to take the ball out of our $40 million a year QBs hands when we already have a $10 million backup QB and a 4th round pick backup QB we traded up for?

But I am sorry. The Saints have no bad contracts. All these contracts are wonderful. And if they did all struggle we could easily take the cap hits to move on. Well, either that or we are basically hoarders who maxed out our credit cards and get by telling ourselves that really we are rich because the trash in the living room is all priceless collectables we can't throw away.

The other concern is there are contracts we don't want to get out of now but might soon. Star cornerbacks have a way of being great until they are garbage. See Nnamdi Asamgaugh and Darrelle Revis. Lattimore is getting older and missing more time. The day is going to come when his contract is a liability, and the smart thing to do is to let things come to a natural conclusion at the end of the deal when the cap hit is small. But instead we restructure to backload it more every year. We are probably looking at $30 million dead cap when we need to move on. Likewise we hope Derek Carr is the next Drew Brees but he may also be the next Drew Bledsoe. If he is the latter, I can't see how we will ever be able to afford to move on if a young QB like the 4th rounder we drafted comes to replace him. We will restructure Carr every year and we could be looking at $50 million plus dead cap if we need to move on in 2025 or 2026 after restructures to backload and convert his $30 million salaries in 2024 and 2025.

Point B examples of teams we can't match because they saved money. The Bucs cleaned up their cap before they made their run with Brady, giving them the ability to bring in more stars when they went all-in, yielding them a Super Bowl. The Rams did a similar thing, before they started their run with Goff they had a war chest of cap room. They leveraged to the max over time. But now both the Rams and Bucs have added trophies and are both rebuilding and moving on from expensive players. But also I don't think we will match up well against the Falcons and Panthers this season. They both shed a lot of bad contracts like Ryan, Julio Jones, Deion Jones, McCafferey, etc. The Falcons took some key free agents from us. The Panthers kept their draft picks and have the #1 pick QB.

But lets say every draft pick and free agent we acquired this season hits the lottery and we go to the Super Bowl and have a grueling coin flip match against the Chiefs and threaten to shut Patrick Maholmes out of any more rings in his prime. The Chiefs are $51 million under the 2024 cap. We are $61 million over the 2024 cap. They can out spend us because they have saved. Meanwhile we are maxing out the credit cards to go 7-10. We will get under the cap in 2024 but we will do it by letting go young stars and hanging on to washed up liabilities willing to restructure and add void years.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Despite the salary cap woes, the Saints are doing a fairly decent job rebuilding the team a little at a time. Not very long ago even Loomis admitted that the way the Saints have done business with their cap isn't the ideal situation. I do believe the way the contracts were recently redone for Thomas, Peat, and Winston will allow the Saints for an easy exit from these players after the 2023 season, if they choose to do so. As for Kamara and Hill, it will be a bit longer if the Saints choose to move on from them.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Bako, your long post conveniently cherry-picks data points to try and prove your opinion that the Saints FO sucks. So much so that you have to reference the greatest QB ever to play in order to try and prove it. You bring up the Rams and Tampa as good teams to follow? The Bucs spent 7 out of 8 seasons finishing last in the conference while the Saints were having great playoff runs. The hired a great mercenary QB and the league gave them a SB with referee help. Same thing with the Rams while they refs took away the Saint's second title with the PI no call in the playoffs. The Rams had multiple seasons with 5 or less wins including a 1 win season while Lommis and Company have never had less than 7 wins in a normal season. Bringing up instances of teams that may be currently in better shape than us does not erase the fact that Loomis has had this franchise at a very extended streak of winning football and avoided being an irrelevant team with one, two or three win seasons his entire time here. It's just amazing the lack of credit and respect you give the team.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

I see the similarities but I don't believe that Bako has had any members leave due to overwhelming frustration yet.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Great response Boston … can’t say I read GPT Chat - HESBSAF
“Hate Everything Saints But Still a Fan” … anyway like YOUR algorithm :chug::beer:

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Thanks WW

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First of all, that's bullcrap, but taking your premise it could be that the remaining members have a backbone and can handle protesting athletes and such without running away from the game and the site.

:bng: :beer:

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

I would rather we finish last place 7 of 8 seasons and win the Super Bowl the eighth than have 8 frustrating playoff runs where we can't quite get there. We are not the Falcons or Matt Ryan, its not about honorable mentions. I was heartbroken by how we were robbed in the NFCCG vs the Rams but realistically I think we only slightly overmatched the Rams, it was an extremely close game, and the Patriots dominated the Rams in the Super Bowl, so I think we can't say we would have won the Super Bowl if not for that call. We would have played in it, but realistically I think you have have to give the Patriots at least 60/40 odds given their track record and what they did against the Rams. And also if you give credit to Loomis for where he would have got us if not for the refs, you also have to consider the refs point forward, and realize we can't just be good to beat 12 men we need to be great, and I don't think we are going to be great by holding onto the likes of Andrus Peat.

There are many examples of rebuilding not just the Rams and Bucs. I think the reason the Chiefs avoid our strategy with the cap is because the only way they won't contend with Maholmes is if they get stuck in a lot of bad contracts and can't put even a decent team around him. So they let Mathieu go knowing a safety usually will decline at his age. And they traded Tyreek Hill knowing his off the field issues and his aging and relying on speed. So they rebuilt, and they still won it all. Meanwhile the Falcons had about the same record as us last year, while they moved on from Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Deion Jones. Rebuilding didnt hurt them. Meanwhile the Eagles got to the Super Bowl by being willing to absorb big cap hits moving on from Wentz and other veterans to build around a younger QB in Hurts and have the money to add a star WR for him when they needed it. You can say I cherry pick, but its clearly cherry picking to claim we will be the Browns or Lions or Jags if we don't follow Loomis' strategy. The most successful franchises of our era are the Patriots and recently the Chiefs. Both have been willing to move on from vets to avoid blowing the cap. I just don't think we are some amazing innovators while defying the strategy of those winning rings. Loomis' strategy of max cap leverage is no move innovative than his strategy of overpaying an aging RB and guaranteeing 90% of that running backs salary against an imminent suspension for no good reason.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

And those are hardly the only two options available. Many teams get last place 7 of 8 seasons and then do it again for 5 of the next 6 seasons without even making the playoffs. Your viewpoint is that of the entitled fan who doesn't understand how difficult it is to win (especially with the refs and league stacked against you) and doesn't appreciate what the team has accomplished under the current direction. Just my opinion of course.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Some posters may have left due to the kneeling and pandering but a few members I know were tired of you behaving like an impetuous child and ruining this site. You should own that since many of us have pointed it out but you won't. I feel as though you've dialed it back a bit so good job.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Agreed

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

George (Saintfan) warned us …

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

I stress that I respect Bako's, Guido's and anyone else's rights to their opinions. I find myself agreeing with some and disagreeing with other things they say. I probably can say that about every user here. I'm sure others feel the same about me. It's the Saints passion that is the common thread. Thats the great thing about this forum.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Save it Bosty! I never agree with your shallow and uninformed posts! Ever! Lmao!

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Thats because you got's smarts!!!

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In fact, if you take away my shallowness and my lack of knowledge that only leaves me with my looks! Good thing I can cook!

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

NFL cap management is nothing more than basic cost accounting as Khai Harley has eloquently explained on several occasions. One component of cost accounting is how you account for your inventory. In the NFL cap world the players are the inventory. There are differing means of accounting for the inventory expenses. FIFO, LIFO, and average cost for example. Although, there is one thing that is required for the systems to be successful ... consistent application. Once a method is decided upon any deviation from that method negates the whole application. Any method has drawbacks or risks, but consistent use of the method pays off in the long run.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Perhaps you can dial back the constant attacks on me in return, ice. Quid pro quo?

:chug:
:bng:

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

My twin brother and I don't agree all the time and we argue from time to time but we see things through the same lens. Let's put on our bng sunglasses and talk positively.

Sure, we disagree at times with other posters. But, just because someone makes several arguments that we don't agree with, it doesn't mean we need to resort to name calling. What would ________ do? :poke:

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

IDK Rugs...sounds like if someone has a bad opinion about your mom, you're gonna come out swinging! LOL

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Here's a Good Morning Football question that's similar to what we have debated here.

Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch
 

Guido came at me with some passive aggressive bs about how I didn't have the smarts to understand Loomis' brilliant cap genius. I don't do passive aggressive on message boards so I went with a more transparent and honest form of aggression regarding his mothers virtue. I am all for civil debate, but if you call me an idiot, all bets are off.