I think it depends on what you mean by without him. The Saints might actually have won more games last year if they had cut Michael Thomas before training camp and given more reps to replacement and planned their offense more around replacements. It's easy to point to the one game he won for us, but the effect on the 14 games he missed is more subtle. In the long run that would also have opened up money for new receivers and perhaps a draft pick if some sucker team bet on a comeback.

People said last year that if Peat and Thomas did not perform in 2022 they would be gone. They pointed to Peats contract and said this is his last year. I am sure in 2021 the contract looked like they would make that possible, but then the contracts were restructured to defer more money and they became more costly to cut than restructure so we took another chance. I forsee that happening again and again forever. The difference with players like Armstead and Onyemata is we have to get in bidding wars to keep them, so even if there is deferred money, the cost to keep them is still big. If our players succeed, we can only keep about half of them with our cap situation, but the ones who fail we can keep 100%, because once they get deferred money into future years (not just short term rentals) it is always cheaper to restructure and defer on a 1 year basis than to walk away, every offseason, forever. And there is no bidding war so its simple. Thomas and Peat for life.

If Michael Thomas passes his physical, I think there is a 70% chance he will play week 1 and a 10% chance he will play at least 14 games. I think he is like Rashaad Penny or JT Watt or post-rings Terrell Davis. It's easy enough to suit up for a few weeks but he isn't durable any more. I think that is actually worse than paying to cut him, because even if he wins us games when he plays, that just sets us up to get embarrassed in the wild card when he is not there, gives us a worse draft pick, loses us games when he is out because his backup didn't get the starting reps in camp, and wastes money on a formula that doesn't win rings. Romo has no rings. Watt has no rings. Because to lead a team to a ring, you need to be durable enough to take the field in the playoffs.

On that off 10% chance Thomas had a healthy season, it also puts us in a horrible position. If we keep him, we have to bet on him staying healthy with all those past injury skeletons in the closet, and he will demand a big time deal. If we let him walk, we will eat a bunch of dead cap and get nothing in return because his contract has a void clause that makes it like he was cut, not his contract expires, so no tags and no comp picks. But if we resign him to avoid the cap hit, then probably in 2024 training camp he breaks his pinky toe and refuses surgery and we pay him $120 million / 4 years for nothing, which we restructure over and over so that $80 million of it gets deferred to the last year of the deal in 2027, and in 2027 we need to get under the cap so we have to sign a player who has played 35 games in 8 years to a multi-year extension to spread out the pain. And then we start restructuring that contract, until Mickey Loomis swallows the worm and chokes.

You can go on metaphysical “what if’s” all you want. Fact is he won the Atl game with his 4th quarter performance.

The fact is, and this is a fact not a meta-anything, when an injury prone player goes down very early in the season and you planned around that player, gave them reps, etc, your backup will play most of the season and your backup will be less prepared to play than if the starter had never been on the roster. I don't know what teacher my kid will get in school next grade, but I would rather they get a pretty good teacher than a teacher who is amazing the first week, goes on disability for the rest of the school year on October 1, and is replaced with an unprepared substitute.

They also planned around Olave who got hurt. And Landry who got hurt. And Penning who got hurt and Trautman and Kamara and Winston and a lot of other guys on both sides of the ball who were part of the staggering number of injuries they had. You are choosing hindsight to ignore MT WAS healthy to start the year and was performing at his normal level. A new, different injury happened. Pat yourself on the back all you want if it makes you feel better. It was unlucky.

Olave missed two games. That is normal.

Jarvis Landry was an aging player coming off an injury plagued year who the Saints got cheap because there was a broad lack of interest in his services across the league. His injury was not surprising, it was built into the price. He was always know as a possession receiver not a speed guy, with lots of receptions over the middle taking hits. And he is undersized. So he has aged more like a running back than a receiver. His departure is actually the greatest success of our offseason as we don't need players in that mold even if he is a great guy who was fun to watch at LSU before all the hits.

Penning is bad luck. Many rookies who don't hold up their first season in the NFL never do. Thats why you want lots of draft picks, not to trade up and lose them, because **** happens.

Trautman was never good so his injury does not matter. He was a Payton experiment that failed. No team has ever had to 'account' for Trautman in their defensive game plan.

Kamara is an aging running back. His missing some games is expected. It happens to all of them. Most teams draft young running backs so they can hand the keys to a Pollard type down the road, rather than rely on a backup they 'trust' who won the Heisman trophy in 2005 or whatever.

Winston was coming off an injury. I pointed out in my predictions for our 2022 record that we were going into the season with a lot of injury risk with a starting QB coming off injury, #1 WR coming off 2 years out, an aging Landry as #2 WR coming off injuries, etc. You can call the injuries staggering I guess, but staggering generally implies unforseeable, and I did basically forsee them.

Michael Thomas was not healthy going into 2022. He did not play at all in preseason. He had setbacks in camp. He managed to suit up and be effective week 1 but he was a guy coming off 2 years of injury. When a player has injuries, they often adjust their mechanics with less trust on the injured joints and the result can often be new injuries in other areas. The longer they are out the worse it is. To any sane person, Michael Thomas was a big question mark going into 2022, not a full go 100% sure thing. Thats why nobody drafted him in the 1st-2nd round in fantasy, even though he would surely be a 1st-2nd round pick if he was full go 100% back to 2019.

My overall point is that injuries are disruptive and hurt teams. Its not just missing those players, its forcing other players into roles they are less prepared for, and changing lots of other roles to compensate. If you know a player will miss most of the season, you are better off without them at all. No team can avoid all injuries. With some positions, missing a few games is almost inevitable. But teams that stack up too many high injury risk players into starting spots are setting themselves up for chaos.

That’s where I believe your viewpoint is distorted by your anti-Loomis bias in that you view every Decision as a mistake. I believe I’m more objective. But hey, I could be wrong and I’m not gonna insult/fight about it. It doesn’t matter what I say or facts I present….Your anti-Loomis mind is set.

Edit: Case in point, Thomas and Landry were healthy for week one. They had 12 receptions for 150 yards and 2 TDs between them. Losing both those guys like they did is an anomaly.

Olave missed two games. That is normal.

Jarvis Landry was an aging player coming off an injury plagued year who the Saints got cheap because there was a broad lack of interest in his services across the league. His injury was not surprising, it was built into the price. He was always know as a possession receiver not a speed guy, with lots of receptions over the middle taking hits. And he is undersized. So he has aged more like a running back than a receiver. His departure is actually the greatest success of our offseason as we don't need players in that mold even if he is a great guy who was fun to watch at LSU before all the hits.

Penning is bad luck. Many rookies who don't hold up their first season in the NFL never do. Thats why you want lots of draft picks, not to trade up and lose them, because **** happens.

Trautman was never good so his injury does not matter. He was a Payton experiment that failed. No team has ever had to 'account' for Trautman in their defensive game plan.

Kamara is an aging running back. His missing some games is expected. It happens to all of them. Most teams draft young running backs so they can hand the keys to a Pollard type down the road, rather than rely on a backup they 'trust' who won the Heisman trophy in 2005 or whatever.

Winston was coming off an injury. I pointed out in my predictions for our 2022 record that we were going into the season with a lot of injury risk with a starting QB coming off injury, #1 WR coming off 2 years out, an aging Landry as #2 WR coming off injuries, etc. You can call the injuries staggering I guess, but staggering generally implies unforseeable, and I did basically forsee them.

Michael Thomas was not healthy going into 2022. He did not play at all in preseason. He had setbacks in camp. He managed to suit up and be effective week 1 but he was a guy coming off 2 years of injury. When a player has injuries, they often adjust their mechanics with less trust on the injured joints and the result can often be new injuries in other areas. The longer they are out the worse it is. To any sane person, Michael Thomas was a big question mark going into 2022, not a full go 100% sure thing. Thats why nobody drafted him in the 1st-2nd round in fantasy, even though he would surely be a 1st-2nd round pick if he was full go 100% back to 2019.

My overall point is that injuries are disruptive and hurt teams. Its not just missing those players, its forcing other players into roles they are less prepared for, and changing lots of other roles to compensate. If you know a player will miss most of the season, you are better off without them at all. No team can avoid all injuries. With some positions, missing a few games is almost inevitable. But teams that stack up too many high injury risk players into starting spots are setting themselves up for chaos.