Saints Pick 4.19 - QB Jake Haener

SmashMouth · 04-30-2023, 10:22 AM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

I am not a big fan of this move. The point that he takes up a valuable roster spot when we already have Winston and Hill is a good point. Although, Hill does have a long history of enduring injuries that cause him to not take up a roster spot for much of seasons, to which last year was an anomaly of health.

From what I can tell about Haener, its very unlikely that his upside is as an elite QB. Best case he turns into a Jake Delhomme type game manager. Thats great if your goal is to go 9-7 and live to see another year like management, but is unlikely to earn a ring, unless we produce some Ray Lewis or Derrick Brooks type defense and he is our Trent Dilfer.

I am not sure that we need a new backup to replace Jameis Winston in 2024 because I don't fully believe Winston won't be on our roster as backup in 2024. If we let Winston go, we take an almost $11 million cap hit in 2024. That won't happen on Mickey and Khai's watch. If we give Winston a $10 million bonus to restructure and add 10 voidable years to the end of his contract, we can get his cap number down to $5 million, which will make too much sense for Mickey and Khai not to do it. Of course, this would lead to a $16 million dead cap hit in 2025 when his contract would void, so logically we will restructure again to add another $10 million bonus with 10 voidable years to get his 2025 salary down to $6 million, but that will result in a $20 million dead cap in 2026 where we will have to restructure again, and so on, until Winston or Loomis can't hold a pen to make their mark and we take a $100 million dead cap hit for Winston in 2035. I would have liked Haener a lot more if we had let go Winston and/or Hill but I think we are keeping both for year to year cap management and lack of a young backup is not why we are unable to move on.

The 2024 4th rounder we gave up could have been valuable. At least its not a round 1-3 pick but still it could have been used to get something more valuable than a 4th string QB with Jake Delhomme upside dependent on Dennis Allen's staff to develop it. We could have drafted another young skill position player, oline, or depth at LB next year. Or we could have used it as a trade chip to move up in an earlier round. Now we dont have that, and will once again in the 2024 draft probably have to trade valuable 2025 picks at a discount to move up.

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

I just pointed out in another thread that by far the majority of starting QBs in the league are 1st rounders. A few are second. Two are 4th rounders. So the Statistical chances of him being a starting NFL QB Are pretty low compared to other positions drafted in the fourth round.

Originally Posted by neugey

The more I sit on this, the more I wonder if Taysom is on the trading block, perhaps to Denver to reunite with CSP. With a new QB in Carr and 2 new RB's in the fold, I am not sure if Taysom's role stays the same as it has been. Maybe things do stay the same, but gut is telling me we may be at a crossroads.

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

I think Taysom's experiment at QB is done regardless. I see him as being straight TE from here on out. Maybe a wildcat here or there, but no longer being in the QB room.

Originally Posted by Mr.Riaton

I wonder how much of a cap hit we’d take if he gets traded? I love me some Taysom, but if we don’t really have a solid plan for him, I’d rather get something for him(would rather a proven player over a draft pick if possible) than under utilize him.

Haener will be our future.

This is the last year for Taysom and Jameis as Saints as both will be gone IMHO no later than a year from now.

It was a smart move to get the Brees clone while we could. His processing skills are what's needed in this day and age.

SmashMouth · 04-30-2023, 10:29 AM

iceshack149 likes this.

AsylumGuido · 04-30-2023, 10:43 AM

Originally Posted by SmashMouth

Haener will be our future.

This is the last year for Taysom and Jameis as Saints as both will be gone IMHO no later than a year from now.

It was a smart move to get the Brees clone while we could. His processing skills are what's needed in this day and age.

I think the error is in still thinking of Taysom as a QB. I honestly believe that the Saints have moved on from that. I believe they now see him as strictly a TE which helped make Trautman expendable. With Carr under center Taysom can continue to develop into a top tier TE. He has the size, blocking ability, extraordinary speed, and excellent hands required to be among the best in the league.

iceshack149 · 04-30-2023, 12:26 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

I think the error is in still thinking of Taysom as a QB. I honestly believe that the Saints have moved on from that. I believe they now see him as strictly a TE which helped make Trautman expendable. With Carr under center Taysom can continue to develop into a top tier TE. He has the size, blocking ability, extraordinary speed, and excellent hands required to be among the best in the league.

This is why I wasn't big on drafting a TE this year. Juwan Johnson had shown flashes of a being a good TE with last years mess of an offense and Hill, though older and often banged up, is a dangerous weapon. Krull is a big kid but he did absolutely nothing last year to give me any notion that he'll be ready to contribute this year. Hopefully we'll get a winner between him and Whiteheart from Wake Forest this season.

AsylumGuido · 04-30-2023, 12:43 PM

Originally Posted by iceshack149

This is why I wasn't big on drafting a TE this year. Juwan Johnson had shown flashes of a being a good TE with last years mess of an offense and Hill, though older and often banged up, is a dangerous weapon. Krull is a big kid but he did absolutely nothing last year to give me any notion that he'll be ready to contribute this year. Hopefully we'll get a winner between him and Whiteheart from Wake Forest this season.

And we are by no means out of the free agent market. Cameron Brate? Dan Arnold? Several others, as well.

neugey · 04-30-2023, 12:44 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

I think the error is in still thinking of Taysom as a QB. I honestly believe that the Saints have moved on from that. I believe they now see him as strictly a TE which helped make Trautman expendable. With Carr under center Taysom can continue to develop into a top tier TE. He has the size, blocking ability, extraordinary speed, and excellent hands required to be among the best in the league.

I think it has a chance of working if indeed they use him full-time as a H-back/TE/special team player. All the QB power and QB packages are going to need to be dropped and it'll take a big commitment from Carmichael and Taysom both. Very rare for a player in his 30's to make a position change, and there's a reason for that. If anyone can it's Taysom, but it's a big ask.

SmashMouth · 04-30-2023, 12:59 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

And we are by no means out of the free agent market. Cameron Brate? Dan Arnold? Several others, as well.

Forgot about Brate... he could work out for a year.

AsylumGuido · 04-30-2023, 01:07 PM

Originally Posted by neugey

I think it has a chance of working if indeed they use him full-time as a H-back/TE/special team player. All the QB power and QB packages are going to need to be dropped and it'll take a big commitment from Carmichael and Taysom both. Very rare for a player in his 30's to make a position change, and there's a reason for that. If anyone can it's Taysom, but it's a big ask.

Agreed. No way you take the ball out of Carr's hands like we had to do with Dalton, et al. And we have Jamaal Williams that is a beast at the goal line and in short yardage.

AsylumGuido · 04-30-2023, 07:00 PM

SmashMouth likes this.

BakoSaint · 04-30-2023, 07:47 PM

Originally Posted by SmashMouth

Haener will be our future.

This is the last year for Taysom and Jameis as Saints as both will be gone IMHO no later than a year from now.

It was a smart move to get the Brees clone while we could. His processing skills are what's needed in this day and age.

I want to question this in terms of numbers.

We are about $43 million over the cap for 2024, effectively $53 million over assuming you filled out the roster with minimum salary players. This is not an obstacle. We can get under the cap. Loomis and Hartley are magic. But they can't do their magic without restructuring contracts.

In 2024 the dead cap would be as follows for letting Winston and Hill walk.

Winston dead cap if walks: $10.7 million.
Hill dead cap if walks: $16.9 million. $15.8 million if he stays.

Then you have Derek Carr, whose cap hit for playing in 2024 is $35.7 Million, would be $52.8 million if cut.

In 2025 Carr's cap number goes up to $45.7 million.

My prediction is that to get under the 2024 cap next offseason, Loomis will not be able to accept dead cap hits or paying players the planned amounts in the current years, he will rely on restructures as usual to get under the cap. That magic will involve reducing Carr and Hill's 2024 salaries to $1 million and offering Winston a similar restructure extension with a $1 million contract, making up the difference for all with prorated bonuses and added void years to spread out the bonuses. These bonuses will pay the players the difference between their salaries and $1 million, approximately $9 million to Hill, $9 million to Winston, and $29 million to Carr. They will save the Saints a critical $35 million or so off the 2024 cap, along with similar restructures for Thomas and Peat. Depending on the number of voidable years added, only about 20% of this $47 million in bonuses will hit the 2024 cap savings the Saints a lot of money. But, this means about $38 million extra will be associated with dead cap if we part ways with the players in 2025.

Due to the anticipated restructures in the 2024 offseason, the Saints will be further over the 2025 cap, and the costs of cutting each of these players will be higher in the 2025 offseason than it was in 2024 because of the salaries converted to deferred bonuses. So, the Saints will likely have to restructure all these players again in 2025.

This does not mean Haener can't be our QB of the future. It just means he has to clearly beat the other 3 options, and they will still be on the roster as backups, at very elevated salaries, with big dead cap hits if we ever want to move on. Carr's contract may look like it gives us an exit strategy if we want to move on in 2025, 26, or 27. Right now it does. But only if we don't restructure and defer more money between now and then. But we will restructure and defer more money. Carr's $50 million base salary in 2026 is real and will be collected, because after offseason restructure in 2024 and 2025 offseasons the dead cap to move on in 2026 will be more than $50 million, and we will convert his 2026 salary to $1 million + $49 million prorated bonus, guaranteeing Carr's tenure well beyond 2026, whether as a starter or a backup.

04-30-2023, 10:22 AM	#31
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,123 Blog Entries: 29	Re: Saints Pick 4.19 - QB Jake Haener Originally Posted by BakoSaint I am not a big fan of this move. The point that he takes up a valuable roster spot when we already have Winston and Hill is a good point. Although, Hill does have a long history of enduring injuries that cause him to not take up a roster spot for much of seasons, to which last year was an anomaly of health. From what I can tell about Haener, its very unlikely that his upside is as an elite QB. Best case he turns into a Jake Delhomme type game manager. Thats great if your goal is to go 9-7 and live to see another year like management, but is unlikely to earn a ring, unless we produce some Ray Lewis or Derrick Brooks type defense and he is our Trent Dilfer. I am not sure that we need a new backup to replace Jameis Winston in 2024 because I don't fully believe Winston won't be on our roster as backup in 2024. If we let Winston go, we take an almost $11 million cap hit in 2024. That won't happen on Mickey and Khai's watch. If we give Winston a $10 million bonus to restructure and add 10 voidable years to the end of his contract, we can get his cap number down to $5 million, which will make too much sense for Mickey and Khai not to do it. Of course, this would lead to a $16 million dead cap hit in 2025 when his contract would void, so logically we will restructure again to add another $10 million bonus with 10 voidable years to get his 2025 salary down to $6 million, but that will result in a $20 million dead cap in 2026 where we will have to restructure again, and so on, until Winston or Loomis can't hold a pen to make their mark and we take a $100 million dead cap hit for Winston in 2035. I would have liked Haener a lot more if we had let go Winston and/or Hill but I think we are keeping both for year to year cap management and lack of a young backup is not why we are unable to move on. The 2024 4th rounder we gave up could have been valuable. At least its not a round 1-3 pick but still it could have been used to get something more valuable than a 4th string QB with Jake Delhomme upside dependent on Dennis Allen's staff to develop it. We could have drafted another young skill position player, oline, or depth at LB next year. Or we could have used it as a trade chip to move up in an earlier round. Now we dont have that, and will once again in the 2024 draft probably have to trade valuable 2025 picks at a discount to move up. Originally Posted by Boston Saint I just pointed out in another thread that by far the majority of starting QBs in the league are 1st rounders. A few are second. Two are 4th rounders. So the Statistical chances of him being a starting NFL QB Are pretty low compared to other positions drafted in the fourth round. Originally Posted by neugey The more I sit on this, the more I wonder if Taysom is on the trading block, perhaps to Denver to reunite with CSP. With a new QB in Carr and 2 new RB's in the fold, I am not sure if Taysom's role stays the same as it has been. Maybe things do stay the same, but gut is telling me we may be at a crossroads. Originally Posted by AsylumGuido I think Taysom's experiment at QB is done regardless. I see him as being straight TE from here on out. Maybe a wildcat here or there, but no longer being in the QB room. Originally Posted by Mr.Riaton I wonder how much of a cap hit we’d take if he gets traded? I love me some Taysom, but if we don’t really have a solid plan for him, I’d rather get something for him(would rather a proven player over a draft pick if possible) than under utilize him. Haener will be our future. This is the last year for Taysom and Jameis as Saints as both will be gone IMHO no later than a year from now. It was a smart move to get the Brees clone while we could. His processing skills are what's needed in this day and age. neugey and Rugby Saint II like this.

04-30-2023, 10:29 AM	#32
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,123 Blog Entries: 29	Re: Saints Pick 4.19 - QB Jake Haener Twitter Twitter iceshack149 likes this.

04-30-2023, 10:43 AM	#33
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,214	Re: Saints Pick 4.19 - QB Jake Haener Originally Posted by SmashMouth Haener will be our future. This is the last year for Taysom and Jameis as Saints as both will be gone IMHO no later than a year from now. It was a smart move to get the Brees clone while we could. His processing skills are what's needed in this day and age. I think the error is in still thinking of Taysom as a QB. I honestly believe that the Saints have moved on from that. I believe they now see him as strictly a TE which helped make Trautman expendable. With Carr under center Taysom can continue to develop into a top tier TE. He has the size, blocking ability, extraordinary speed, and excellent hands required to be among the best in the league. neugey and SmashMouth like this.

04-30-2023, 12:26 PM	#34
iceshack149 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Fairbanks, AK Posts: 4,258 Blog Entries: 1	Re: Saints Pick 4.19 - QB Jake Haener Originally Posted by AsylumGuido I think the error is in still thinking of Taysom as a QB. I honestly believe that the Saints have moved on from that. I believe they now see him as strictly a TE which helped make Trautman expendable. With Carr under center Taysom can continue to develop into a top tier TE. He has the size, blocking ability, extraordinary speed, and excellent hands required to be among the best in the league. This is why I wasn't big on drafting a TE this year. Juwan Johnson had shown flashes of a being a good TE with last years mess of an offense and Hill, though older and often banged up, is a dangerous weapon. Krull is a big kid but he did absolutely nothing last year to give me any notion that he'll be ready to contribute this year. Hopefully we'll get a winner between him and Whiteheart from Wake Forest this season. AsylumGuido likes this.

04-30-2023, 12:43 PM	#35
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,214	Re: Saints Pick 4.19 - QB Jake Haener Originally Posted by iceshack149 This is why I wasn't big on drafting a TE this year. Juwan Johnson had shown flashes of a being a good TE with last years mess of an offense and Hill, though older and often banged up, is a dangerous weapon. Krull is a big kid but he did absolutely nothing last year to give me any notion that he'll be ready to contribute this year. Hopefully we'll get a winner between him and Whiteheart from Wake Forest this season. And we are by no means out of the free agent market. Cameron Brate? Dan Arnold? Several others, as well.

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04-30-2023, 12:44 PM	#36
neugey Hu Dat! Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 6,697 Blog Entries: 13	Re: Saints Pick 4.19 - QB Jake Haener Originally Posted by AsylumGuido I think the error is in still thinking of Taysom as a QB. I honestly believe that the Saints have moved on from that. I believe they now see him as strictly a TE which helped make Trautman expendable. With Carr under center Taysom can continue to develop into a top tier TE. He has the size, blocking ability, extraordinary speed, and excellent hands required to be among the best in the league. I think it has a chance of working if indeed they use him full-time as a H-back/TE/special team player. All the QB power and QB packages are going to need to be dropped and it'll take a big commitment from Carmichael and Taysom both. Very rare for a player in his 30's to make a position change, and there's a reason for that. If anyone can it's Taysom, but it's a big ask.

04-30-2023, 12:59 PM	#37
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,123 Blog Entries: 29	Re: Saints Pick 4.19 - QB Jake Haener Originally Posted by AsylumGuido And we are by no means out of the free agent market. Cameron Brate? Dan Arnold? Several others, as well. Forgot about Brate... he could work out for a year. Rugby Saint II likes this.

04-30-2023, 01:07 PM	#38
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,214	Re: Saints Pick 4.19 - QB Jake Haener Originally Posted by neugey I think it has a chance of working if indeed they use him full-time as a H-back/TE/special team player. All the QB power and QB packages are going to need to be dropped and it'll take a big commitment from Carmichael and Taysom both. Very rare for a player in his 30's to make a position change, and there's a reason for that. If anyone can it's Taysom, but it's a big ask. Agreed. No way you take the ball out of Carr's hands like we had to do with Dalton, et al. And we have Jamaal Williams that is a beast at the goal line and in short yardage. Rugby Saint II likes this.

04-30-2023, 07:00 PM	#39
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,214	Re: Saints Pick 4.19 - QB Jake Haener Twitter SmashMouth likes this.

04-30-2023, 07:47 PM	#40
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,135	Re: Saints Pick 4.19 - QB Jake Haener Originally Posted by SmashMouth Haener will be our future. This is the last year for Taysom and Jameis as Saints as both will be gone IMHO no later than a year from now. It was a smart move to get the Brees clone while we could. His processing skills are what's needed in this day and age. I want to question this in terms of numbers. We are about $43 million over the cap for 2024, effectively $53 million over assuming you filled out the roster with minimum salary players. This is not an obstacle. We can get under the cap. Loomis and Hartley are magic. But they can't do their magic without restructuring contracts. In 2024 the dead cap would be as follows for letting Winston and Hill walk. Winston dead cap if walks: $10.7 million. Hill dead cap if walks: $16.9 million. $15.8 million if he stays. Then you have Derek Carr, whose cap hit for playing in 2024 is $35.7 Million, would be $52.8 million if cut. In 2025 Carr's cap number goes up to $45.7 million. My prediction is that to get under the 2024 cap next offseason, Loomis will not be able to accept dead cap hits or paying players the planned amounts in the current years, he will rely on restructures as usual to get under the cap. That magic will involve reducing Carr and Hill's 2024 salaries to $1 million and offering Winston a similar restructure extension with a $1 million contract, making up the difference for all with prorated bonuses and added void years to spread out the bonuses. These bonuses will pay the players the difference between their salaries and $1 million, approximately $9 million to Hill, $9 million to Winston, and $29 million to Carr. They will save the Saints a critical $35 million or so off the 2024 cap, along with similar restructures for Thomas and Peat. Depending on the number of voidable years added, only about 20% of this $47 million in bonuses will hit the 2024 cap savings the Saints a lot of money. But, this means about $38 million extra will be associated with dead cap if we part ways with the players in 2025. Due to the anticipated restructures in the 2024 offseason, the Saints will be further over the 2025 cap, and the costs of cutting each of these players will be higher in the 2025 offseason than it was in 2024 because of the salaries converted to deferred bonuses. So, the Saints will likely have to restructure all these players again in 2025. This does not mean Haener can't be our QB of the future. It just means he has to clearly beat the other 3 options, and they will still be on the roster as backups, at very elevated salaries, with big dead cap hits if we ever want to move on. Carr's contract may look like it gives us an exit strategy if we want to move on in 2025, 26, or 27. Right now it does. But only if we don't restructure and defer more money between now and then. But we will restructure and defer more money. Carr's $50 million base salary in 2026 is real and will be collected, because after offseason restructure in 2024 and 2025 offseasons the dead cap to move on in 2026 will be more than $50 million, and we will convert his 2026 salary to $1 million + $49 million prorated bonus, guaranteeing Carr's tenure well beyond 2026, whether as a starter or a backup.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,135