BakoSaint

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...S/ShahRa00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...T/ThomMi05.htm

Consider this:

Stat R. Shaheed 2022 M Thomas 2022 M T 2019
Catch% 82.4% 72.7% 80.5%
Yd/Rec 17.4 10.7 11.6
Yd/Tgt 14.4 7.8 9.3
Yd/Start 62.8 57 108.3

The assumption is made that Michael Thomas is our #1 WR and Rasheed Shaheed is our #3 WR but consider the stats.

Rasheed Shaheeds catch rate in 2022 was ~10% higher than Michael Thomas' and even exceed Michael Thomas' catch rate in his 2019 OPOY season with Drew Brees. And this is with Andy Dalton.

Rasheed Shaheed's yards per reception and yards per targets vastly exceeded anything Michael Thomas has ever achieved in his career.

Rasheed Shaheed had more yards per start than Michael Thomas last season. He can't match 2019 Michael Thomas with Drew Brees in this category but he comes closer than 2022 Michael Thomas could and if he is targeted more who knows.

Michael Thomas happened to get a lot of end zone targets in 2022 before his injury. But besides that, he didn't look his full self, unless you blame that on the QBs. But Rasheed Shaheed had lesser QBs to work with too and mostly had better stats.

I think we should keep in mind that Shaheed may be a special talent and may have more upside than Michael Thomas in 2023. In the unlikely event Thomas stays healthy, his usage may still be limited if Shaheed catches a higher percentage of passes each for more yardage. Maybe Shaheed's stats can't be extrapolated, but maybe they can. Antonio Brown is about Shaheeds size, came from a small school, and almost went undrafted too. And he never caught 82.4% of his targets. Jaylen Waddle is about Shaheeds size but and had slightly higher yards per recepetion but much lower yards per target due to much lower catch rate. And Waddle's 11.6 yards per target was 2nd in the NFL to Shaheed's 14.4 yards per target among receivers with at least 400 yards receiving.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/202...target-leaders

Shaheed never missed more than 1 target in a game last year. In the final 6 games where he started, his 85% catch rate matched Michael Thomas' best catch rate from 2018, which taking much deeper targets. It's important to note that his catch rate actually increased when starting and being targeted more. The most targets he received in a game was 6 against the vaunted Philadelphia defense and he caught all 6. The Saints had a 3-2 winning record in games where Shaheed was targeted at least 4 times and a 2-0 record when he was targeted at least 5 times. Meanwhile the Saints were 1-2 with Michael Thomas, and he was targeted at least 5 times in all his games.

Personally, I like the odds that Shaheed's numbers were not a fluke more than I like the odds that Thomas stays healthy. I am excited to see what Shaheed can become. I think its possible he could become the best wide receiver in the NFL because in some efficiency stats he already was last year.