Jimmy Graham Arrested?

Boston Saint · 08-19-2023, 03:02 PM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

Broadly my opinion is TEs are very susceptible to lots of injuries from head to toe, they have to take a beating out over the middle, and unlike a LB they are not in control when the big collisions come. They tend to get hit in defenseless positions because they are not faster than the defenders so rather than hitting them in stride, the quarterback often puts the ball up high for them to get it, and they have to focus on coming down with the ball while the defenders focus on hitting them so hard they can't hold on. It was smart that we traded Jimmy Graham and got 1st round value for him. Its too bad the pick did not work out, but Unger was great. If you look back at TE drafted in the 1st round, there are maybe 1-2 stars per decade, and just tons of busts, or guys who flash, get paid, and break down. Meanwhile some random 3rd round TE meat head will somehow make the HOF. Its just too unpredictable to waste big resources. You never know who will somehow hold up, avoid the bigger hits, and still be able to go out over the middle without blinking.

If I were to compare the TE and RB positions, I would say both tend to have a lot of trouble sustaining greatness as they approach 30, but there might be more running backs who have managed it, and more RBs who manage it before 30 too. Guys like Tony Gonzalez, Gronk, and Kelce are the rare exception, but RB had guys like Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, and Adrian Peterson. TE is just a more hyped position in the NFL right now because the two most durably successful TE of our era, Gronk and Kelce, happened to play with the two most clutch playoff QBs, Brady and Maholmes. I agree with not investing too much in RB but I think I think TE is the same deal. Imagine if instead of Gronk and Kelce, Brady and Maholmes happened to be paired with durable running backs in the type of Smith, Sanders, Faulk, Martin, or Peterson? They would win a bunch of rings and people would just ignore all the other RBs becoming totally ineffective at 27 and say drafting a RB in the 1st Round and paying them big as free agents is going to win it all for them.

Here is an article that has study info related to player injuries. Among their findings:

https://deltapawprint.com/1546/sport...l-by-position/

A line from the article states:
“Tight ends have both the risks of a wide receiver and offensive lineman, however, they aren’t doing both catching and blocking every play. They have a smaller chance of injury than offensive linemen and Wide Receivers.”

WRs and LBs were the most injured positions. TEs seem to be much lower risk. Avoiding them as early picks due to injury has little statistical backup.

AsylumGuido · 08-19-2023, 03:24 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Here is an article that has study info related to player injuries. Among their findings:

https://deltapawprint.com/1546/sport...l-by-position/

A line from the article states:
“Tight ends have both the risks of a wide receiver and offensive lineman, however, they aren’t doing both catching and blocking every play. They have a smaller chance of injury than offensive linemen and Wide Receivers.”

WRs and LBs were the most injured positions. TEs seem to be much lower risk. Avoiding them as early picks due to injury has little statistical backup.

Give up. Bako is going to continue to blame everything on the Saints front office. Fact or logic matters not.

Boston Saint · 08-19-2023, 03:45 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Give up. Bako is going to continue to blame everything on the Saints front office. Fact or logic matters not.

Well, in this case he was agreeing with the FO in NOT taking a TE in round one. I am in doubt of that position.

AsylumGuido · 08-19-2023, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Well, in this case he was agreeing with the FO in NOT taking a TE in round one. I am in doubt of that position.

Given the talent we have now I'd have to agree with him if that's the case.

Boston Saint · 08-19-2023, 05:41 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Given the talent we have now I'd have to agree with him if that's the case.

When I say I am in doubt of that position I did not mean I doubt the TE position, rather I doubt the idea of never drafting one in the round.

SmashMouth · 08-19-2023, 10:12 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Given the talent we have now I'd have to agree with him if that's the case.

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

When I say I am in doubt of that position I did not mean I doubt the TE position, rather I doubt the idea of never drafting one in the round.

Since Gronk, very few TE have been worthy of a first round pick, IMHO.

BakoSaint · 08-19-2023, 10:34 PM

Originally Posted by SmashMouth

Since Gronk, very few TE have been worthy of a first round pick, IMHO.

And Gronk, Kelce, Graham, and Kittle were all not 1st round picks. Its just the ultimate impossible position to project. Most NFL TE's don't gel with their QB and offense until year 2. Most college TE's and QB's only start for 2 years, and often the TE does not start with the same QB 2 years in a row, plus there are only like 10 games so less time to gel. TE's may take awhile to bulk up when they hit college and may be growing into their size and weight. And then whether they still have the courage to go out over the middle and take big hits when they see what pro defenses are like, that varies. As does the ability to take those hits and stay healthy. So for the same reasons rookie TE's don't gel with their QB/offense in year 1, a college TE may never gel at all completely in college because there are not as many games, not the same QB consistency, not as much practice and time to focus on learning the game and putting in work in the weight room because you are a student athlete. So then you make a 3rd round pick who has the size and athleticism but didnt produce in college, and suddenly they are a better pro than 1st rounder, because college football is just a ****ty way to see if a TE will good at pro football.

BakoSaint · 08-19-2023, 04:14 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Give up. Bako is going to continue to blame everything on the Saints front office. Fact or logic matters not.

I am actually complementing one aspect of the Saints front office now. We have not overinvested in TE in the draft like some fans would like. I can't remember the last 1st rounder we used on the position. Irv Smith Sr maybe? And we traded Jimmy Graham near his peak value for picks. That is one good thing.

The article sited concerned HS football injuries and it was not clear if they were saying HS TE had less injuries than HS receiver per snap or in general. In general there are often 3 WR and 1 TE on most plays so of course WR would account for more injuries. Also in HS everyone is not big and strong and most hits are not hard, so the TE being a big guy going out over the middle is a lot safer than in the pros facing pro LB. But in High School the ground is harder and the fields are worse so running routes could be more dangerous. A lumbering TE in HS is safer, not running fast or making big cuts. But in the NFL that TE is getting layed out by Ray Lewis and Ed Reed over the middle while the receiver is running out of bounds with some corner covering him.

Its very hard to measure durability with stats. There is so much noise from 7th round picks who wash out of the league in 2.5 years. Its not just the injury itself, its whether it makes the player tentative and less effective, and I think TE is the position you can least afford to be tentative if you want to remain effective, you have to commit to absorbing hits over the middle and remain focuses on the catch despite the price.

But, its not per say just the injuries at TE for why I say don't draft the position in the 1st round. Its more the unpredictability. I will illustrate that with data. Here are lists of the most pro bowl selections at east position: TE, RB, WR, LB:

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/tig...most-pro-bowls
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/rb-...most-pro-bowls
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/wr-...most-pro-bowls
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/lin...most-pro-bowls

Seven tight ends appeared in 6 or more Pro bowls. Only 1 of 7 was a 1st round pick, Tony Gonzalez.

Seven running backs were selected to 7 or more pro bowls. All 7 were 1st round picks.

Seven wide receivers were selected to 8 or more pro bowls (not counting Matthew Slater who was selected for special teams only). 6 of 7 were 1st round picks.

Six linebackers were selected to 10 or more pro bowls. 4 of 6 were 1st round picks, and Mike Singletary was the 38th overall pick so very close. The only linebacker of these six drafted outside the top 38 picks was a guy named Joe Schmidt from the 1953 draft.

So there are such thing as durable effective tight end careers. They are just much harder to predict in the 1st round. Witten, Kelce, Gates, Sharpe, Charlie Sanders (someone before my time), Jordan, Graham, Gronk, and Kittle all came from later rounds. And even with their shortened careers Graham and Gronk are pretty high on the list of 'stacking' pro bowl selections at the position.

The Falcons we super dumb to spend high 1st round picks on TE and RB. At least with RB though, many of the most elite do come from the 1st round, they could find the next Peterson, Smitth, or Sanders there. Maybe these guys flash and they win in the short term, but even if that happens the odds they sustain and become foundations for the franchise are incredibly low, but even lower for the TE than the RB from the 1st round.

08-19-2023, 03:02 PM	#1
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Jimmy Graham Arrested? Originally Posted by BakoSaint Broadly my opinion is TEs are very susceptible to lots of injuries from head to toe, they have to take a beating out over the middle, and unlike a LB they are not in control when the big collisions come. They tend to get hit in defenseless positions because they are not faster than the defenders so rather than hitting them in stride, the quarterback often puts the ball up high for them to get it, and they have to focus on coming down with the ball while the defenders focus on hitting them so hard they can't hold on. It was smart that we traded Jimmy Graham and got 1st round value for him. Its too bad the pick did not work out, but Unger was great. If you look back at TE drafted in the 1st round, there are maybe 1-2 stars per decade, and just tons of busts, or guys who flash, get paid, and break down. Meanwhile some random 3rd round TE meat head will somehow make the HOF. Its just too unpredictable to waste big resources. You never know who will somehow hold up, avoid the bigger hits, and still be able to go out over the middle without blinking. If I were to compare the TE and RB positions, I would say both tend to have a lot of trouble sustaining greatness as they approach 30, but there might be more running backs who have managed it, and more RBs who manage it before 30 too. Guys like Tony Gonzalez, Gronk, and Kelce are the rare exception, but RB had guys like Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, and Adrian Peterson. TE is just a more hyped position in the NFL right now because the two most durably successful TE of our era, Gronk and Kelce, happened to play with the two most clutch playoff QBs, Brady and Maholmes. I agree with not investing too much in RB but I think I think TE is the same deal. Imagine if instead of Gronk and Kelce, Brady and Maholmes happened to be paired with durable running backs in the type of Smith, Sanders, Faulk, Martin, or Peterson? They would win a bunch of rings and people would just ignore all the other RBs becoming totally ineffective at 27 and say drafting a RB in the 1st Round and paying them big as free agents is going to win it all for them. Here is an article that has study info related to player injuries. Among their findings: https://deltapawprint.com/1546/sport...l-by-position/ A line from the article states: “Tight ends have both the risks of a wide receiver and offensive lineman, however, they aren’t doing both catching and blocking every play. They have a smaller chance of injury than offensive linemen and Wide Receivers.” WRs and LBs were the most injured positions. TEs seem to be much lower risk. Avoiding them as early picks due to injury has little statistical backup. Rugby Saint II likes this.

08-19-2023, 03:24 PM	#2
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,676	Re: Jimmy Graham Arrested? Originally Posted by Boston Saint Here is an article that has study info related to player injuries. Among their findings: https://deltapawprint.com/1546/sport...l-by-position/ A line from the article states: “Tight ends have both the risks of a wide receiver and offensive lineman, however, they aren’t doing both catching and blocking every play. They have a smaller chance of injury than offensive linemen and Wide Receivers.” WRs and LBs were the most injured positions. TEs seem to be much lower risk. Avoiding them as early picks due to injury has little statistical backup. Give up. Bako is going to continue to blame everything on the Saints front office. Fact or logic matters not.

08-19-2023, 03:45 PM	#3
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Jimmy Graham Arrested? Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Give up. Bako is going to continue to blame everything on the Saints front office. Fact or logic matters not. Well, in this case he was agreeing with the FO in NOT taking a TE in round one. I am in doubt of that position.

08-19-2023, 04:56 PM	#4
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,676	Re: Jimmy Graham Arrested? Originally Posted by Boston Saint Well, in this case he was agreeing with the FO in NOT taking a TE in round one. I am in doubt of that position. Given the talent we have now I'd have to agree with him if that's the case.

08-19-2023, 05:41 PM	#5
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Jimmy Graham Arrested? Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Given the talent we have now I'd have to agree with him if that's the case. When I say I am in doubt of that position I did not mean I doubt the TE position, rather I doubt the idea of never drafting one in the round.

08-19-2023, 10:12 PM	#6
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,927 Blog Entries: 29	Re: Jimmy Graham Arrested? Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Given the talent we have now I'd have to agree with him if that's the case. Originally Posted by Boston Saint When I say I am in doubt of that position I did not mean I doubt the TE position, rather I doubt the idea of never drafting one in the round. Since Gronk, very few TE have been worthy of a first round pick, IMHO.

08-19-2023, 10:34 PM	#7
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,400	Re: Jimmy Graham Arrested? Originally Posted by SmashMouth Since Gronk, very few TE have been worthy of a first round pick, IMHO. And Gronk, Kelce, Graham, and Kittle were all not 1st round picks. Its just the ultimate impossible position to project. Most NFL TE's don't gel with their QB and offense until year 2. Most college TE's and QB's only start for 2 years, and often the TE does not start with the same QB 2 years in a row, plus there are only like 10 games so less time to gel. TE's may take awhile to bulk up when they hit college and may be growing into their size and weight. And then whether they still have the courage to go out over the middle and take big hits when they see what pro defenses are like, that varies. As does the ability to take those hits and stay healthy. So for the same reasons rookie TE's don't gel with their QB/offense in year 1, a college TE may never gel at all completely in college because there are not as many games, not the same QB consistency, not as much practice and time to focus on learning the game and putting in work in the weight room because you are a student athlete. So then you make a 3rd round pick who has the size and athleticism but didnt produce in college, and suddenly they are a better pro than 1st rounder, because college football is just a ****ty way to see if a TE will good at pro football. SmashMouth likes this.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,400

08-19-2023, 04:14 PM	#8
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,400	Re: Jimmy Graham Arrested? Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Give up. Bako is going to continue to blame everything on the Saints front office. Fact or logic matters not. I am actually complementing one aspect of the Saints front office now. We have not overinvested in TE in the draft like some fans would like. I can't remember the last 1st rounder we used on the position. Irv Smith Sr maybe? And we traded Jimmy Graham near his peak value for picks. That is one good thing. The article sited concerned HS football injuries and it was not clear if they were saying HS TE had less injuries than HS receiver per snap or in general. In general there are often 3 WR and 1 TE on most plays so of course WR would account for more injuries. Also in HS everyone is not big and strong and most hits are not hard, so the TE being a big guy going out over the middle is a lot safer than in the pros facing pro LB. But in High School the ground is harder and the fields are worse so running routes could be more dangerous. A lumbering TE in HS is safer, not running fast or making big cuts. But in the NFL that TE is getting layed out by Ray Lewis and Ed Reed over the middle while the receiver is running out of bounds with some corner covering him. Its very hard to measure durability with stats. There is so much noise from 7th round picks who wash out of the league in 2.5 years. Its not just the injury itself, its whether it makes the player tentative and less effective, and I think TE is the position you can least afford to be tentative if you want to remain effective, you have to commit to absorbing hits over the middle and remain focuses on the catch despite the price. But, its not per say just the injuries at TE for why I say don't draft the position in the 1st round. Its more the unpredictability. I will illustrate that with data. Here are lists of the most pro bowl selections at east position: TE, RB, WR, LB: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/tig...most-pro-bowls https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/rb-...most-pro-bowls https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/wr-...most-pro-bowls https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/lin...most-pro-bowls Seven tight ends appeared in 6 or more Pro bowls. Only 1 of 7 was a 1st round pick, Tony Gonzalez. Seven running backs were selected to 7 or more pro bowls. All 7 were 1st round picks. Seven wide receivers were selected to 8 or more pro bowls (not counting Matthew Slater who was selected for special teams only). 6 of 7 were 1st round picks. Six linebackers were selected to 10 or more pro bowls. 4 of 6 were 1st round picks, and Mike Singletary was the 38th overall pick so very close. The only linebacker of these six drafted outside the top 38 picks was a guy named Joe Schmidt from the 1953 draft. So there are such thing as durable effective tight end careers. They are just much harder to predict in the 1st round. Witten, Kelce, Gates, Sharpe, Charlie Sanders (someone before my time), Jordan, Graham, Gronk, and Kittle all came from later rounds. And even with their shortened careers Graham and Gronk are pretty high on the list of 'stacking' pro bowl selections at the position. The Falcons we super dumb to spend high 1st round picks on TE and RB. At least with RB though, many of the most elite do come from the 1st round, they could find the next Peterson, Smitth, or Sanders there. Maybe these guys flash and they win in the short term, but even if that happens the odds they sustain and become foundations for the franchise are incredibly low, but even lower for the TE than the RB from the 1st round.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,400

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