I’m tired of drafting guys that can’t stay on the field.

I’m tired of drafting guys that can’t stay on the field.

Rasheed Shahid has entered the chat

Coming off of that torn ACL at Weber St, I assumed his rookie
season would be simply a “red shirt” year.

Boy was I wrong.

But Boston, I get it 💯. Davenport, Payton Turner, Anazalone all had
medical red flags in college yet Saints still gambled on em.

Rasheed Shahid has entered the chat

Coming off of that torn ACL at Weber St, I assumed his rookie
season would be simply a “red shirt” year.

Boy was I wrong.

But Boston, I get it 💯. Davenport, Payton Turner, Anazalone all had
medical red flags in college yet Saints still gambled on em.

But Rasheed Shaheed was not drafted, so we didn't draft a guy coming off serious injuries in his case. We gambled house money. Had we been able to acquire Marcus Davenport as an undrafted free agent he would have been one of our top 10 or 20 undrafted free agent finds of the last decade.

In my view if you go to the store and you see a shirt that you like but its missing a button, you try to get it half off. If you are buying a used car and it has a salvage title and the engine makes noise you expect to pay less. You don't pay full price on optimistic upside. And then if you have a long commute to a new job where you have to prove yourself quickly to stay on, you don't but that salvage car with the engine noise as your daily commute vehicle.

Likewise when we acquire injured players we should only do so at a discount. That should be a real discount, ie a discount relative to what they have actually showed on the field, not relative to the most optimistic possible scenario of what they might have shown on the field, or else top high school recruits would just try to stay injured all of college to guarantee first round pick status. And if we can get a player off a discount because of college injuries, we have to realize there is risk and prepare for that risk, not pencil them in as a starter with no backup plan and draw up a generous long term extension the second they manage to play 10 games in a row.

I am not especially familiar with Davenport and Turner's college injury histories. Alex Analzone and Taysom Hill had very extensive college injury histories. For many years we counted too much on Analzone being healthy when all the history told us he would not be. I am generally of the opinion that Taysom Hill has only been kept healthy through limited use and is still a ticking time bomb. I guess its possible a player becomes durable in their mid-30's like reverse-Cam-Newton but I am doubting it.

But Rasheed Shaheed was not drafted, so we didn't draft a guy coming off serious injuries in his case. We gambled house money. Had we been able to acquire Marcus Davenport as an undrafted free agent he would have been one of our top 10 or 20 undrafted free agent finds of the last decade.

In my view if you go to the store and you see a shirt that you like but its missing a button, you try to get it half off. If you are buying a used car and it has a salvage title and the engine makes noise you expect to pay less. You don't pay full price on optimistic upside. And then if you have a long commute to a new job where you have to prove yourself quickly to stay on, you don't but that salvage car with the engine noise as your daily commute vehicle.

Likewise when we acquire injured players we should only do so at a discount. That should be a real discount, ie a discount relative to what they have actually showed on the field, not relative to the most optimistic possible scenario of what they might have shown on the field, or else top high school recruits would just try to stay injured all of college to guarantee first round pick status. And if we can get a player off a discount because of college injuries, we have to realize there is risk and prepare for that risk, not pencil them in as a starter with no backup plan and draw up a generous long term extension the second they manage to play 10 games in a row.

I am not especially familiar with Davenport and Turner's college injury histories. Alex Analzone and Taysom Hill had very extensive college injury histories. For many years we counted too much on Analzone being healthy when all the history told us he would not be. I am generally of the opinion that Taysom Hill has only been kept healthy through limited use and is still a ticking time bomb. I guess its possible a player becomes durable in their mid-30's like reverse-Cam-Newton but I am doubting it.

Anzalone has become pretty durable for the Lions. He has started 33 of 37 games for them since 2021 including the last 19 straight. In his four previous seasons with us he started 20 of 64. Perhaps we were too impatient and should have waited.

Meh, I think we were due an upgrade regardless, which Werner definitely is.

Taysom Hill was not drafted by us, thats good, but we did overpay him, which is also not good when durability is a major concern. We did initially acquire him at a discount, but when his contract was expired we threw that discount out the window.

Analzone has somehow become durable but not good. He is a mediocre linebacker on a trash defense. If this case our impatience paid off with drafting Peter Werner and letting Analzone walk. Analzone's PFF was actually higher in 2020 before we let him walk than it has been in any season with the Lions. He is just getting a lot of playing time now.