BakoSaint

There has been various discussion of moving on from DA, PC, Carr, and others. I am all for coaching changes. I also don't know that Winston or Haener would not be better than Carr, though I am highly skeptical they would be. But I just wanted to provide some neccessary background for why moving on from Carr this offseason is probably not realistic. I know some like the option and some hate it and feel Carr is fine, but I just want to explain what the option actually means and why it probably is not an option.

The Saints are $71.5 million over the projected 2024 salary cap, but this is not the end of the world because we can restructure contracts to save up to about $110-120 million if we restructure every eligible contract. Restructuring means we take money that is due in 2024 like base salary and roster bonuses and convert all but an about $1 million base salary into a signing bonus which can be prorated over up to the next 5 years, including void years if needed, so only 1/5th of the money is due in 2024.

The problem is that Carr is the biggest contract we can restructure for the most 2024 cap savings. Restructuring Carr saves us $23 million off the 2024 salary cap.

The other problem is that Carr's $30 million 2024 base salary is fully guaranteed, he is due a $5.7 million prorated bonus in 2024 from his signing bonus, and he is due $17.1 million in prorated bonuses over the 2025-2027 period. If he is cut, all those bonuses become due in 2024, and we still have to pay his base salary since its guaranteed, which is usually what you cut a player to avoid. So if he is cut, instead of saving $23 million we owe an extra $17 million in 2024. This is a net change of $40 million for our salary cap picture.

This means if we cut Carr, we are $88.5 million over the 2024 salary cap and we can save about $87-97 million if we restructure every contract on our roster to the max. Beyond this there is nothing that can be done to free up salary cap. Loomis' cap magic is entirely dependent on this tactic of restructuring contracts to defer base salary and roster bonuses over 5 years. There is no additional magic that allows them to be deferred over 10 years or to restructure more players than are on our own roster or to get to restructure the same money twice, there is a hard limit and when you hit that you cannot do anything else.

All our other contracts are structured much like Carr's, for the first year it costs not saved money to cut players. There is only one player we can cut and save more than $1.25 million which is James Hurst at $2.7 million which is not much money anyway, and all the players we could cut to save $1 million would cost the same to replace with another minimum salary player.

Essentially if we cut Carr, we take a net $40 million cap hit versus restructuring him, and at most after restructuring everyone and not moving on from any other players who might be part of our problems this year we have $10 million cap space. Then we need to sign our draft picks which will cost about $10 million cap space.

So if we cut Carr our 2024 roster is our 2023 roster, minus Carr, Thomas, Peat, Winston, Baun, and any other minor free agents, plus our draft class, plus minimum salary players. There will be virtually no money left over to sign free agents earning starting level pay, trade for them, cut anyone other than Carr earning starting level pay which would incur a dead cap hit, or sign any players to an extension at starting level pay (as we would already be restructuring those players base salary and roster bonuses over the maximum of 5 years, so any new money increase our cap burned in 2024 since 1/5th of it would hit immediately, and players would be unlikely to sign an extension without any additional bonus the first year).

Cutting Carr would completely paralyze our 2024 roster. It would be the moment the salary caps hard limits finally hit. If we do seek a new coach, this situation would make us a very undesirable job, as that coach could not really bring in any new veteran starters to put their imprint on the team, and they would be stuck with a rookie QB or a very minimum salary veteran. We might not even be able to afford to resign Winston if some team got crazy and offered him $6-8 million a year for for two years if he comes into a few games for us and looks decent. Also, the new coach would not be able to purge veterans who don't fit his system and were loyal to the old regime, so even if a new coach benched some veterans in favor of new blood, they would have to remain on the roster, creating controversies if young players struggle.

There are two caveats to all this. In theory we could designate Carr a post-June-1 cut. But this is very complicated. Carr has a $10 million 2025 roster bonus that becomes guaranteed if he is still on the roster this March. Preventing this guarantee is the only financial benefit to cutting him this offseason, since his base salary in 2024 is guaranteed. But, if he is designated a post-June-1 cut, I am not sure if this roster bonus could prevent being guaranteed, since in some sense he is still on the roster until June 1 for financial purposes. Even if it would prevent the guarantee, a post-june-1 cut is complicated in how it works, and the team is not supposed to get the cap benefit until June 1. But we are not allowed to exceed the salary cap at any time prior to june 1 either. So, we would have to do all the moves to restructure virtually every veteran with a non-minimum salary on our roster anyway, which takes away the flexibility to move on from any of those other players. We could designate other players we want to get rid of as post June 1 cuts but the same problems arise, and we are only allowed to designate two players, and I dont think we can designate any trades as post-June-1. So overall, the post june 1 thing is probably not a very useful tool in this situation where we are so far over the salary cap and have to stay under it at all times and have to restructure everyone.

The second caveat is that while Derek Carr's $30 million 2024 salary is fully guaranteed, in theory if we traded him another team could pay it. If we managed to get another team to accept Carr's full $30 million salary we could actually save $13 million which is still not as much as the $23 million we would save with a restructure, but is close. The thing is, no other team is likely to want Carr for $30 million, unless for example we give them our 1st round pick for taking Carr off our hands, which I don't think many fans would want us to give up.

Overall, I don't think moving on from Carr this offseason is a viable financial option once you consider the implications. His 2024 base salary is fully guaranteed so we don't save any money really, except the $10 million 2025 roster bonus. Even if Carr sits the entire season on the bench, we are better using our money other way. But its much more practical to bring in different coaches who might be able to get more out of Carr, at least as a bridge starter, and move on in 2025 if needed when his base salary is not guaranteed, even if that pesky roster bonus is. If we restructure Carr, we at least have a little salary cap flexibility to do things such as bring in some help on oline, take a few cap hits cutting some other veterans who may not fit long term to free up 2025 cap space to make it easier if we need to move on from Carr, sign other role players who may fit a new coaches system, etc.

Danno

He can be a pricey back-up as far as I'm concerned
Play the best players.

BakoSaint

Upon further reading, designating Carr a post-June-1 cut before his roster bonus triggers would prevent it from triggering. In that scenario the Saints would not save or lose any money against the 2024 cap until June 1. So the Saints would remain $71.5 million over the 2024 Salary Cap with the inability to restructure Carr's contract and they could still restructure all other players to save between $87-97 million so they would need to restructure almost everyone else. This would mean $15-$25 million cap space, of which $10 million would go to signing draft picks, leaving $5-15 million for other transactions, which is still a fairly low amount but could allow some other movement. Then the $17 million hit for prorated bonus dead money would hit in 2025, but the $10 million roster bonus wouldn't. Either way the $30 million base salary would hit in 2023 because it is guaranteed.

If we are going rebuild, this is still probably a worse option than moving on from other veterans, because it still uses up most of our 2024 cap and all we escape in 2025 is the $10 million roster bonus, because Carr's salary is guaranteed. Many other vets we could move on from don't have guaranteed salaries so we could save more, and we could cut more than one of them.

Technically there is another option but its probably unlikely. If Carr and the Saints mutually wanted a divorce, Carr could restructure his contract to convert the $30 million salary into a $1 million non-guaranteed salary and a $30 million bonus prorated over 5 years at $6 million a year. Then once the ink dries on the restructure, we could designate him a post-June-1 cut. This would save $24 million in 2024, $1 million more than a restructure, but result in a $41 million dead cap hit in 2025. This compares to saving $23 million in 2024 with a restructure where he stays on the team, and take a $50 million dead cap hit in 2025 to cut him then (the $23 million saved + $17 million previously prorated + $10 million roster bonus that guarantees March 1). If Carr would agree to this and we wanted to move on, it might be our best option, but I am not totally sure the NFL allows it and also I am not sure Carr would do it considering he would have leverage and might want that $10 million roster bonus.

To summarize here are our options to get rid of Carr in 2024 or 2025. Looking further at the cap mechanics some could be viable but most would create a lot of other cap constraints unless Carr helps by restructuring before the cut, if thats legal.

Our main options:
Regular Cut: $52.8 million 2024 cap cost. Total $52.8 million.
Post June-1-Designation Cut: $35.7 million 2024 cap cost, $17 million 2025 cap cost. Total $52.8 million.
Keep for 2024 without restructure, cut in March 2025: $35.7 million 2024 cap cost, $27.1 million 2025 cap cost. Total $62.8 million
Keep for 2024 with restructure, cut in March 2025: $12.7 million 2024 cap cost, $50.1 million 2025 cap cost. Total $62.8 million
Keep for 2024 with restructure, cut in March 2025 with post-June-1 designation: $12.7 million 2024 cap cost, $21.5 million 2025 cap cost, $28.6 million 2026 cap cost. Total $62.8 million.

Very Unlikely:
Restructure and Post-June-1-Designation Cut in March 2024: $11.7 million 2024 cap cost, $41.1 million 2025 cap cost. Total $52.8 million.
Trade in 2024 offseason: $52.8 million 2024 cap cost minus whatever salary trade partner is willing to take up to $30 million, unlikely much unless we give them picks. Total $52.8 million - $?
Keep for 2024 with restructure, restructure roster bonus in March 2025 and then immediate cut with post-June-1 designation: $12.7 million 2024 cap cost, $13.5 million 2025 cap cost, $36.5 million 2026 cap cost.

Sinner

Y’all better start pointing a big finger at Loomis, and possibly higher, if you want to make sense of our suffering, which WILL continue for quite some time, unfortunately.

WhoDat!656

I wanted the Saints to sign Baker Mayfield; IMO he is a better QB than Carr.

Rugby Saint II

The Saints are broken and broke. It's going to be hard to dig out of this hole. It's depressing to think that this is what we are stuck with for the rest of the year.....and maybe next year too.

MatthewT

Moving on from Carr doesn't necessarily mean removing him from the roster. Drafting a potential franchise QB and having him learn from Hill while Carr sits the bench isn't the worst idea. Of course if Carr turns it around then he can play over the next couple years while the new guy gets ready. We shall see.

K Major

9+ years in, I think we kinda have a good idea what Carr is.

A mid QB at best. I think Kirk Cousins 2.0 is a fair comparison.

After watching JT Sullivan give an expert breakdown, I have my doubts
with DCarr turning this around. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that many WRs “open” in a NFL game NOT thrown passes to before.

We can only hope things improve vs Indy.

saintsfan1976

All we needed was a top 15 QB. His salary was in line with his abilities. He didn't need to carry the team.

Instead Carr is playing nowhere near that level and may now be sinking the ship...

BakoSaint

Depends what you mean by need. If the goal was to go 10-7 or maybe 11-6 and make an appearance in the playoffs and have a coin flip shot against Dallas, Minnesota, Seattle, LA, or whoever were supposed to be the mid tier teams, maybe. But at a championship level, I don't think so. Thats the biggest problem to me, Loomis looked at this roster and said all we needed was the QB and he was wrong. A few years ago we had Brees, and 2018 was the last year we got close to the championship, and it has been down hill every year since, and we were not going to achieve greater results with a lesser version of Brees and the same but older core.

Taking away the QB position and comparing the rest of the roster, I don't think we are as good as Phi or SF. What we had was a solid top 10 defense, some good weapons on offense except for no dominant TE, a makeshift sketchy oline, and a head coach with a track record of losing. Although our defense is good, we don't have the DPOY caliber defenders who take over games. We drafted Davenport and Turner to be those guys and they both missed so now we have to sell ourselves that an aging Cam and Granderson are our direct equivalents of Bosa and Parsons. Cam Jordan has always been a guy who is consistent but he is getting old, and even in his prime he was not the guy who brought it to the next level and took over the game in the playoffs and willed a ring. Players like Bosa, Parsons, Gardner, and Donald are harder to account for in the playoffs.

We were 7-10 last year and didn't have the worst QB play from Dalton honestly. Dalton perhaps the 20th best QB in the NFL last year. He was 19th in passing yards, 15th in TDs. Lets say Dalton was the 22nd best QB in the league last year to be conservative, how is going to the 15th best QB going to get us from 7-10 to a ring?

The Eagles had everything we had, plus an elite oline, plus a proven coach who won a lot of games last year, plus a top 5-10 QB. How is getting a 15th ranked QB going to put us over the top?

The Jets had everything we had except they were coming from a much worse QB in Zach Wilson and probably have a better defense. After all they managed 7-10 in a better division with a worse offense. Garder is a DPOY level shut down corner while Lattimore shows up for the big games but isn't as consistent. They added a QB in Aaron Rodgers who was a recent MVP and had the potential to be top 5. How was adding Derek Carr going to match their adding Rodgers had he stayed healthy?

You can look at lots of other teams. The 49ers have a winning coach, a top 15 QB who is young and cheap, a better oline, and a more dangerous pass rusher to dominate games. The Bills have a roster a lot like ours minus the QB, but their QB is top 5. The Chiefs may trail us a bit on offensive and defensive weapons but their QB is all world. We just aren't competing with those teams even if Carr was Carr of 2 years ago. Maybe we are 5-2 in a weak division, but when the playoffs come we are done.

To say we paid fair market for a #15 QB is tricky. The market for a #15 QB isn't always there. Most NFL teams do not want to pay big money for a #15 QB even if its fair value because its hard to win it all with a #15 QB unless your team is absolutely bonkers great on other levels. Like the Jets with Gardner or the Broncos back when they had Von Miller and such an elite defense they made the playoffs with Tebow. Sometimes a QB who could be #15 doesn't get much interest at all, like Winston when he left the Bucs or Newton when he left the Panthers or guys like Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers late in their career. Your franchise has to be in a very special moment for the case where Drew Bledsoe or Derek Carr or Jay Cutler gets you a ring, and most teams would rather take a chance on a young guy who could be #5 or #25 for cheap than spend a ton to try to lock in mediocrity.

And the most important thing at all, we are infinity players away when we don't have a winning coach. There is no roster in the league that is going anywhere with an 18-42 coach. I think the whole point of signing Carr was to stretch for 10-7 so we could unfurl a glorius NFC West Championship banner and brag about owning Ridder and Mayfield and give big money long term extensions to ML, DA, and PC before getting our ass handed to us in the playoffs so they could enjoy a lovely January vacation with that signing money. It was never a viable move to pursue excellence, only the pursuit of good enough.