Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

After reading five pages of valid pros and cons I have a tendency to give the young man time to settle in. Lutz and Morten Andersen "The Great Dane" weren't always money. I remember the revolving door at kicker in the past and I don't want to go there again. Grupe has a good leg and was damn good in preseason. Give him time to calm down. After all, he is only a rookie and he's already made several long kicks. Yes, he's missed at the worst time but he's young. Let's give him a chance to see if he's the kicker of the future before we start fresh next year.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Sounds like Rizzi sees the snap and/or hold being the issue. That's implied by the reference to the "operation".

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Just an update here. I'm not sure who all watched the Broncos/Bills game this past week, but our friend Lutz missed another extra point and then missed the short FG to win the game, but was given a second chance due to the Bills having 12 men on the field. He made the second attempt five yards closer with the added comfort of the practice kick.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Sounds like Taysom Hill needs to be the new holder.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

I was actually thinking the same thing.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

This makes sense. We have a rag-tag oline and crocodile dundee out there holding as a 30 year old rookie. With Grupe, I see upside, he nails a lot of long kicks and he is young. With the punter, the upside must be selling Saints gear to global markets and trying to talk Keith Urban and Nicole Kidman into showing up for a Saints game just because Pete Carmichael's offense is featuring their countryman learning to punt.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

On the missed game-winner before the do-over: I absolutely hated how they managed the clock there and IMO added more pressure to the kick than there should have been. They should have been throwing an incomplete pass/spike on 3rd down to stop the clock. Payton wanted to bring the clock all the way down and not give them the ball back and it almost cost them the game. Doing that makes the odds of the kicker missing the kick much higher as the entire squad is rushing to get the snap and the kick off. I really didn't like how they did that. They should have had a dead ball, had a pressure-free kick, and given the ball back to the Bills with less than 20 seconds and no time-outs. Your odds of making the kick and winning the game are higher in that scenario than the one that played out. What they did only lowered their chances of winning and almost cost them the game IMO.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

You are missing one thing. Rushing the kicking team also rushed the defense. In the end, rushing the defense gave Lutz 2 chances to make the kick and improved their chances of winning the game. Had Lutz made the initial attempt, I believe Denver could have declined the 12 man penalty and won. Since Denver missed the kick, Denver accepted the 12 man. Rushing the defense worked. It could be a partial excuse for Lutz’s miss, but I am ok with the coaching decision from Payton. It may increase the chance Lutz misses but that is probably outweighed by taking time off the clock and increasing the chances of a Bill penalty. I guess it could have increased the chance of. Denver penalty too which the Bills could accept or decline depending on whether Denver makes the kick, but if Buffalo accepts a Denver penalty Lutz would get an unrushed but farther kick and the time would still come off the clock.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

You basically argued against yourself. In addition, it's far more likely to have an offensive penalty in that situation than a defensive one. I think if they had an offensive penalty, the game would be over. There would be a 10-second runoff and the game also ends with an offensive penalty at 00 time, which makes doing that kick even more risky. There would be no redo like you stated.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Do you have any stats backing an offensive penalty being more likely? I feel like in that situation the offense can known what its going to do and prepare while the defense has react. Also not all offensive penalties result in a run off, it would probably have to be a pre-snap penalty.

With Sean Payton's bad luck on last second drives like the Minnesota miracle, I can't blame him for wanting to run all the time off the clock.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

A presnap penalty like a false start = game over. The most common penalty in the NFL is offensive holding. The second most common penalty is a false start. In terms of percentages, they outrank the other penalties by a significant margin. Over 1/3 of the penalties called are those two penalties. The highest defensive penalty called is defensive holding. Defensive pass interference is very close in percentage to defensive holding. No passes are being thrown so those penalties are both unlikely. 12 guys on the field is very uncommon and probably only occurred due to the situation. It's hard to say how likely it is in that situation. I'd bet quite a bit though that a false start and an offensive holding would still be the most common penalties in that situation. An offensive holding wouldn't end the game unless the game clock ran out, but it would make the next FG attempt significantly harder. I deal with math quite a bit, and I'm going to make what I think is a very good guess in that stopping the clock there makes your chances of winning far more likely than running your FG unit onto the field with a running clock ticking down.

People have been saying that Mahomes got KC into FG range with 13 seconds remaining, but people forget that Mahomes had 3 TOs. Any tackle in the field of play would probably end the game once Buffalo got back the ball. What Mahomes did and what Josh Allen would have to do are two completely different levels of difficulty.