Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

There is a common narrative that we 'kept the wrong kicker' but I would like to challenge that.

Yes, when you first look at the stats Grupe has missed 5 field goals and Lutz has only missed 2 but when you look closer, its much more complicated than that.

Lutz also missed an extra point, which should be worse, in terms of kicking ability/consistency.

Grupe has 23 field goal attempts on the season and Lutz has 15, so if Lutz has missed 2 of 15 he is on pace to miss 3 of 23, plus the extra point, so before you even look at distance, Lutz is up to 4 misses on an equivalent of Grupe's usage and accounting for extra points.

Lutz has rarely been used from even 40 yards out all season. He is being used mostly for chip shots. Lutz is 2 of 3 from 40+ yards this season. Grupe is 8 of 12 from 40+ which is the same ratio as 2 of 3. They are the same percentage on long kicks, even though Lutz gets to kick in thin rocky mountain mile high air. Heck, Lutz is 2 of 3 from 36+ because his 4th longest attempt on the season was from 35 yards. Just Grupe has been asked to attempt 4x as many long kicks racking up 4x as many misses on those kicks. With Lutz incredibly sparse usage from 36+, and Denver's thin air, you also have to wonder if he is having issues with range in practice.

Lutz has only 2 games this season where his longest field goal made exceeded 32 yards. Grupe has 6.

All of Lutz's missed field goals and extra points have come within the division in the most critical games. None of Grupe's have.

Inside 40, Grupe is 10 of 11 on field goals and 19 of 19 on extra points. Lutz is 11 of 12 on field goals and 15 of 16 on extra points. So basically from shorter range they are performing about the same.

I have to think offensive line plays some role in kicking. The same line that blocks for the QB has to protect the kicker. Also a team with more confidence in its oline doesn't have to 'rush things' as much and can provide the kicker a better hold, better placement of laces, and let them go through their motions with less worries on their mind. Its hard to find absolutely up to date oline rankings but on one list I found from week 6, Denver's oline was ranked 7 and New Orleans was ranked 23.

Yes, Grupe has missed kicks in close games. But 7 of our 9 games have been close so wtf do you expect? Both Grupe and Lutz have 1 game where their misses accounted for the the margin of defeat in a loss. But Lutz's led to a division loss.

Grupe is younger, cheaper, and healthier. We got a pick for Lutz. Lutz is not kicking better than Grupe this season. Lutz has the salary, protection, and thin air that should be letting him kick better. Lutz has effectively missed 3 kicks while only being asked to attempt 3 kicks from 40+ and while kicking 11 less times than Grupe. Lutz is not playing better. They are playing about the same and its just hidden because of Lutz' usage. For the same level of play, I would go with the younger, cheaper, healthier player. There may be upgrades out there, but they are not Lutz.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

In other words : Lutz is gone. Grupe is the kicker. What Lutz does is no longer relevant to the Saints.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

It's relevant to evaluating the decision to trade Lutz and whether we 'kept the wrong kicker.'

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

All kickers in the NFL have the ability to kick the ball. Grupe absolutely does. But, in kicks that matter, I have him 0-3.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Grupe already flat out lost a game for us, at least for his part.
What veteran talent is out there we could potentially bring in?

There must be a free agent veteran looking for a paycheck in exchange for accurate, consistent kicks. Have a small competition, and cut or put Grupe on practice squad or something.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

We won by seven points. A missed field goal only counts for three points. Not only did Chicago do nothing after the missed field goal, they fumbled the ball back to us. That miss mattered less than the 55 yarder that gave us our first lead of the game at 17-14. We never trailed after that key kick.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

While he did indeed, he's also won one for us. At the end of the day, all we want is accuracy consistency.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

If there was a free agent kicker that could consistently execute completely accurate kicks and from deep range he wouldn't be a free agent.

Hitting an upright is not an egregious miss. That is literally missing by inches. We commonly see kickers miss by several feet. Besides, there are multiple factors involved in the kick. Was the snap perfect? Was timing and placement of the ball perfect? Was the footing perfect?

But, here's a listing of all free agent kickers.

Spotrac FA PK's

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

47 yards is not a "gimme" and he hit the inner side of the upright.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Come on, 47 yards, in the NFL, in a DOME with no weather without being in hostile away game? You better believe that is a MUST make kick for an NFL professional kicker. Don't apologize for Grupe. He needs to yank his head out his arse.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Verity is a FA? Let's bring him in.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Had he pulled it or pushed it I could see your point. It hit the upright. To me that's not a fireable offense by any kicker. Not apologizing for anyone. Just stating facts, Halo.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

LOL! The guy's never made an active roster after attempts with four different teams. He's a free agent for a reason. Probably selling insurance or something these days hoping to get on with a CFL team next season.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Exactly.

I don't trust Grupe at all.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Some teams have the ability to find a way rather than come up with excuses every week.

There should be kicker tryouts on Metarie Dr this week.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Seriously though, it's almost hard to believe out of 32 jobs, we can't find one decent kicker out of all the college football programs in excess of 100, small and large, that can fill this kind of gig. Most of guys on that Spotrac list are too $ and over the hill.

Kickalicious is over the hill now to even consider.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Bring in Bullock for a tryout. This should have been a larger kicking competition during the off season.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

I'm not sure that matters Guido. What matters with kickers is can you trust them to make the kicks they need to make when it counts. Kicks that put the game away. We've seen the miss in Green Bay. We saw the miss yesterday. Do you trust Grupe to deliver the next time the game is on the line? The fact that we are asking the question means there is a problem in this area.

SFIAH

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

I trust him just as much as anyone else that is available. The grass isn't always greener. Once again, if he'd missed the kick badly it would have been another matter. Like I mentioned earlier, hitting the upright could have been because of the timing of a hold as much as anything Grupe did wrong himself.

To be honest, I don't think there's any kicker in the league I would completely trust on a kick. None of them are perfect.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Do we miss Mortan Andersen already? Hate that he went to be a FailClown in his latter years. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if he hadn't lost too much accuracy, maybe distance loss. How often is a 60 yarder kicked anyway?

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Lol. MA? The legend?

I can still remember my dad always taking a quick "bathroom break" immediately on 4th down when we were in fg range. I would say "hey dad, you are going to miss this field goal try". My dad " ... son, that's 3, he ain't missing".

Good times. R.I.P. pops :(

MA was about as automatic as they come. Guess he has a yellow jacket & bust in Canton for a reason :bng:

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

As great as we remember Morten Andersen, his career FG percentage with the Saints was 77.6% (302 for 389). At 18 for 25, Blake Grupe's career FG percentage sits at 78.3%, and is over half a percentage point better than Morten's. Just saying.

BTW, Morten's career percentage from 40+ yards was 62.1% (187 for 301). With Grupe's miss from 47 yards yesterday his percentage from 40+ is now 66.7% (8 for 12). Andersen was 40 of 84 from 50+ (47.6%) while Grupe is 4 of 6 for 66.7%.

As fans we have selective memories.

;)

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Fair point... what are the numbers in the clutch I wonder?

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Not sure how to find them. I do know from his career stats that Andersen improved from very mediocre numbers his first two seasons (19 of 29, 65.6%) to 88.6% his 4th season. I think we only remember Morten at his best. I know he missed his share and a number of them at critical times.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

It's a little tough to compare Morten to contemporary kickers IMO. Kicking from distance with reasonable accuracy was a scarcer commodity in those days and Morten's abilities were more valuable in the league.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

This is true.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

I feel like Lutz is more likely to make a kick in a clutch moment than Grupe. That is one of the big differences I see imo. Lutz seems to elevate in clutch moment, Grupe seems to shrink. It's a mental thing. You can throw out stats all you want.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

I for one, do NOT feel confident in relying on Gruppe in clutch situations. Once again, we've been spoiled by kickers for the past decade who have been pretty much automatic. It's a struggle, but who else is out there?

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

I just remember the members here that were calling for Lutz's head last season when he missed 8 of 25 over 30 yards.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Gould is the closest thing these days. But he's 40 I think. Plus his $ demands are up there too.

All we really have to do is go for two every time. I read somewhere where the probability average was way better than people thought in terms of being successful on a two point conversion.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

As bad as we've been in the red zone? Grupe is perfect on extra points.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Well Andersons fg percentage was an abysmal 40% in his rookie year which is a way more acceptable comparison than comparing a half a season by Groupe to a 24 season career by Anderson. I think we should give the rookie a chance to get better, however I do agree that it would be nice to have a kicker who can deliver more consistently in clutch situations. Then again it would be nice for our offense to live up to its potential and not put us in those situations to begin with…

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

I have absolutely no confidence in Grupe hitting a 47 YD FG to win a game right now. If we are behind when he kicks it my confidence goes down even more. I don't think he has the mind to be a clutch kicker. Those taking up for him based on stats can keep at it. The only thing that would change my mind in some way would be to see him hit a clutch kick. I think mentally, he is hanging on a ledge right now. Kickers can build confidence, but honestly, I've never thought that Grupe had the right innate mind for being a clutch kicker. I would be incredibly happy to be wrong about this, it's not like I'm rooting against him. I'd love for him to be the next Gostkowski, I just don't see it happening.

Lutz, on the other hand, has the right innate mental workings, he's just had a couple of bad breaks that have altered his confidence and he's trying to work through his issues. His kicks also don't look as smooth as they used to, I'm not sure if this is a health-related thing or a mind thing. I'm not certain if he'll ever be who he was, but when he was right he was special. I feel like Lutz raises the bar though when the pressure is on him. This doesn't necessarily mean he's going to make it though as he's got some real issues right now.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

There are four elements of the FG that need to click for success: The Snap, The Hold, The Kick, and the Kickers head! Sorta like Golf... if your head isn't Zen, your accuracy is going to be in the toilet! ;)

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Kickers are weird. If memory serves me correctly, Garrett Hartley was kicking poorly at the end of the 2009 season but was money in the playoffs.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

Grupe is missing fgs indoors, AT HOME, no wind that have to be made. So apparently you beat out the vet (Lutz), making em 55+ during pre game warm ups, so what's the problem?

To hear Allen say they weren't even bringing in "tryouts" at the position after another shaky performance is dangerous (post season).
At least bring in a kicking consultant to help.

Bookmark this page.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better
 

I've got this post bookmarked.

Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better