Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better

BakoSaint · 11-05-2023, 10:48 PM

There is a common narrative that we 'kept the wrong kicker' but I would like to challenge that.

Yes, when you first look at the stats Grupe has missed 5 field goals and Lutz has only missed 2 but when you look closer, its much more complicated than that.

Lutz also missed an extra point, which should be worse, in terms of kicking ability/consistency.

Grupe has 23 field goal attempts on the season and Lutz has 15, so if Lutz has missed 2 of 15 he is on pace to miss 3 of 23, plus the extra point, so before you even look at distance, Lutz is up to 4 misses on an equivalent of Grupe's usage and accounting for extra points.

Lutz has rarely been used from even 40 yards out all season. He is being used mostly for chip shots. Lutz is 2 of 3 from 40+ yards this season. Grupe is 8 of 12 from 40+ which is the same ratio as 2 of 3. They are the same percentage on long kicks, even though Lutz gets to kick in thin rocky mountain mile high air. Heck, Lutz is 2 of 3 from 36+ because his 4th longest attempt on the season was from 35 yards. Just Grupe has been asked to attempt 4x as many long kicks racking up 4x as many misses on those kicks. With Lutz incredibly sparse usage from 36+, and Denver's thin air, you also have to wonder if he is having issues with range in practice.

Lutz has only 2 games this season where his longest field goal made exceeded 32 yards. Grupe has 6.

All of Lutz's missed field goals and extra points have come within the division in the most critical games. None of Grupe's have.

Inside 40, Grupe is 10 of 11 on field goals and 19 of 19 on extra points. Lutz is 11 of 12 on field goals and 15 of 16 on extra points. So basically from shorter range they are performing about the same.

I have to think offensive line plays some role in kicking. The same line that blocks for the QB has to protect the kicker. Also a team with more confidence in its oline doesn't have to 'rush things' as much and can provide the kicker a better hold, better placement of laces, and let them go through their motions with less worries on their mind. Its hard to find absolutely up to date oline rankings but on one list I found from week 6, Denver's oline was ranked 7 and New Orleans was ranked 23.

Yes, Grupe has missed kicks in close games. But 7 of our 9 games have been close so wtf do you expect? Both Grupe and Lutz have 1 game where their misses accounted for the the margin of defeat in a loss. But Lutz's led to a division loss.

Grupe is younger, cheaper, and healthier. We got a pick for Lutz. Lutz is not kicking better than Grupe this season. Lutz has the salary, protection, and thin air that should be letting him kick better. Lutz has effectively missed 3 kicks while only being asked to attempt 3 kicks from 40+ and while kicking 11 less times than Grupe. Lutz is not playing better. They are playing about the same and its just hidden because of Lutz' usage. For the same level of play, I would go with the younger, cheaper, healthier player. There may be upgrades out there, but they are not Lutz.

vpheughan · 11-05-2023, 11:08 PM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

There is a common narrative that we 'kept the wrong kicker' but I would like to challenge that.

Yes, when you first look at the stats Grupe has missed 5 field goals and Lutz has only missed 2 but when you look closer, its much more complicated than that.

Lutz also missed an extra point, which should be worse, in terms of kicking ability/consistency.

Grupe has 23 field goal attempts on the season and Lutz has 15, so if Lutz has missed 2 of 15 he is on pace to miss 3 of 23, plus the extra point, so before you even look at distance, Lutz is up to 4 misses on an equivalent of Grupe's usage and account for extra points.

Lutz has rarely been used from even 40 yards out all season. He is being used mostly for chip shots. Lutz is 2 of 3 from 40+ yards this season. Grupe is 8 of 12 which is the same ratio as 2 of 3. They are the same percentage on long kicks, even though Lutz gets to kick in thin rocky mountain mile high air. Just Grupe has been asked to attempt 4x as many long kicks racking up 4x as many misses on those kicks. With Lutz incredibly sparse usage from 40+, and Denver's thin air, you also have to wonder if he is having issues with range in practice.

Inside 40, Grupe is 10 of 11 on field goals and 19 of 19 on extra points. Lutz is 11 of 12 on field goals and 15 of 16 on extra points. So basically from shorter range they are performing about the same.

I have to think offensive line plays some role in kicking. The same line that blocks for the QB has to protect the kicker. Also a team with more confidence in its oline doesn't have to 'rush things' as much and can provide the kicker a better hold, better placement of laces, and let them go through their motions with less worries on their mind. Its hard to find absolutely up to date oline rankings but on one list I found from week 6, Denver's oline was ranked 7 and New Orleans was ranked 23.

Grupe is younger, cheaper, and healthier. We got a pick for Lutz. Lutz is not kicking better than Grupe this season. Lutz has the salary, protection, and thin air that should be letting him kick better. Lutz has effectively missed 3 kicks while only being asked to attempt 3 kicks from 40+ and while kicking 11 less times than Grupe. Lutz is not playing better. They are playing about the same and its just hidden because of Lutz' usage. For the same level of play, I would go with the younger, cheaper, healthier player. There may be upgrades out there, but they are not Lutz.

In other words : Lutz is gone. Grupe is the kicker. What Lutz does is no longer relevant to the Saints.

BakoSaint · 11-05-2023, 11:15 PM

Originally Posted by vpheughan

In other words : Lutz is gone. Grupe is the kicker. What Lutz does is no longer relevant to the Saints.

It's relevant to evaluating the decision to trade Lutz and whether we 'kept the wrong kicker.'

Cruize · 11-06-2023, 07:43 AM

All kickers in the NFL have the ability to kick the ball. Grupe absolutely does. But, in kicks that matter, I have him 0-3.

Halo · 11-06-2023, 07:53 AM

Grupe already flat out lost a game for us, at least for his part.
What veteran talent is out there we could potentially bring in?

There must be a free agent veteran looking for a paycheck in exchange for accurate, consistent kicks. Have a small competition, and cut or put Grupe on practice squad or something.

AsylumGuido · 11-06-2023, 07:53 AM

We won by seven points. A missed field goal only counts for three points. Not only did Chicago do nothing after the missed field goal, they fumbled the ball back to us. That miss mattered less than the 55 yarder that gave us our first lead of the game at 17-14. We never trailed after that key kick.

SmashMouth · 11-06-2023, 07:55 AM

Originally Posted by Halo

Grupe already flat out lost a game for us, at least for his part.
What veteran talent is out there we could potentially bring in?

There must be a free agent veteran looking for a paycheck in exchange for accurate, consistent kicks. Have a small competition, and cut or put Grupe on practice squad or something.

While he did indeed, he's also won one for us. At the end of the day, all we want is accuracy consistency.

AsylumGuido · 11-06-2023, 08:01 AM

Originally Posted by Halo

Grupe already flat out lost a game for us, at least for his part.
What veteran talent is out there we could potentially bring in?

There must be a free agent veteran looking for a paycheck in exchange for accurate, consistent kicks. Have a small competition, and cut or put Grupe on practice squad or something.

If there was a free agent kicker that could consistently execute completely accurate kicks and from deep range he wouldn't be a free agent.

Hitting an upright is not an egregious miss. That is literally missing by inches. We commonly see kickers miss by several feet. Besides, there are multiple factors involved in the kick. Was the snap perfect? Was timing and placement of the ball perfect? Was the footing perfect?

But, here's a listing of all free agent kickers.

Spotrac FA PK's

AsylumGuido · 11-06-2023, 08:06 AM

Originally Posted by SmashMouth

While he did in deed, he's also won one for us. At the end of the day, all we want is accuracy consistency.

47 yards is not a "gimme" and he hit the inner side of the upright.

Halo · 11-06-2023, 08:13 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

47 yards is not a "gimme" and he hit the inner side of the upright.

Come on, 47 yards, in the NFL, in a DOME with no weather without being in hostile away game? You better believe that is a MUST make kick for an NFL professional kicker. Don't apologize for Grupe. He needs to yank his head out his arse.

11-05-2023, 10:48 PM	#1
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 1,765	Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better There is a common narrative that we 'kept the wrong kicker' but I would like to challenge that. Yes, when you first look at the stats Grupe has missed 5 field goals and Lutz has only missed 2 but when you look closer, its much more complicated than that. Lutz also missed an extra point, which should be worse, in terms of kicking ability/consistency. Grupe has 23 field goal attempts on the season and Lutz has 15, so if Lutz has missed 2 of 15 he is on pace to miss 3 of 23, plus the extra point, so before you even look at distance, Lutz is up to 4 misses on an equivalent of Grupe's usage and accounting for extra points. Lutz has rarely been used from even 40 yards out all season. He is being used mostly for chip shots. Lutz is 2 of 3 from 40+ yards this season. Grupe is 8 of 12 from 40+ which is the same ratio as 2 of 3. They are the same percentage on long kicks, even though Lutz gets to kick in thin rocky mountain mile high air. Heck, Lutz is 2 of 3 from 36+ because his 4th longest attempt on the season was from 35 yards. Just Grupe has been asked to attempt 4x as many long kicks racking up 4x as many misses on those kicks. With Lutz incredibly sparse usage from 36+, and Denver's thin air, you also have to wonder if he is having issues with range in practice. Lutz has only 2 games this season where his longest field goal made exceeded 32 yards. Grupe has 6. All of Lutz's missed field goals and extra points have come within the division in the most critical games. None of Grupe's have. Inside 40, Grupe is 10 of 11 on field goals and 19 of 19 on extra points. Lutz is 11 of 12 on field goals and 15 of 16 on extra points. So basically from shorter range they are performing about the same. I have to think offensive line plays some role in kicking. The same line that blocks for the QB has to protect the kicker. Also a team with more confidence in its oline doesn't have to 'rush things' as much and can provide the kicker a better hold, better placement of laces, and let them go through their motions with less worries on their mind. Its hard to find absolutely up to date oline rankings but on one list I found from week 6, Denver's oline was ranked 7 and New Orleans was ranked 23. Yes, Grupe has missed kicks in close games. But 7 of our 9 games have been close so wtf do you expect? Both Grupe and Lutz have 1 game where their misses accounted for the the margin of defeat in a loss. But Lutz's led to a division loss. Grupe is younger, cheaper, and healthier. We got a pick for Lutz. Lutz is not kicking better than Grupe this season. Lutz has the salary, protection, and thin air that should be letting him kick better. Lutz has effectively missed 3 kicks while only being asked to attempt 3 kicks from 40+ and while kicking 11 less times than Grupe. Lutz is not playing better. They are playing about the same and its just hidden because of Lutz' usage. For the same level of play, I would go with the younger, cheaper, healthier player. There may be upgrades out there, but they are not Lutz. jnormand, SmashMouth and Sainters7 like this.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 1,765	Last edited by BakoSaint; 11-05-2023 at 11:17 PM..

11-05-2023, 11:08 PM	#2
vpheughan 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,499	Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better Originally Posted by BakoSaint There is a common narrative that we 'kept the wrong kicker' but I would like to challenge that. Yes, when you first look at the stats Grupe has missed 5 field goals and Lutz has only missed 2 but when you look closer, its much more complicated than that. Lutz also missed an extra point, which should be worse, in terms of kicking ability/consistency. Grupe has 23 field goal attempts on the season and Lutz has 15, so if Lutz has missed 2 of 15 he is on pace to miss 3 of 23, plus the extra point, so before you even look at distance, Lutz is up to 4 misses on an equivalent of Grupe's usage and account for extra points. Lutz has rarely been used from even 40 yards out all season. He is being used mostly for chip shots. Lutz is 2 of 3 from 40+ yards this season. Grupe is 8 of 12 which is the same ratio as 2 of 3. They are the same percentage on long kicks, even though Lutz gets to kick in thin rocky mountain mile high air. Just Grupe has been asked to attempt 4x as many long kicks racking up 4x as many misses on those kicks. With Lutz incredibly sparse usage from 40+, and Denver's thin air, you also have to wonder if he is having issues with range in practice. Inside 40, Grupe is 10 of 11 on field goals and 19 of 19 on extra points. Lutz is 11 of 12 on field goals and 15 of 16 on extra points. So basically from shorter range they are performing about the same. I have to think offensive line plays some role in kicking. The same line that blocks for the QB has to protect the kicker. Also a team with more confidence in its oline doesn't have to 'rush things' as much and can provide the kicker a better hold, better placement of laces, and let them go through their motions with less worries on their mind. Its hard to find absolutely up to date oline rankings but on one list I found from week 6, Denver's oline was ranked 7 and New Orleans was ranked 23. Grupe is younger, cheaper, and healthier. We got a pick for Lutz. Lutz is not kicking better than Grupe this season. Lutz has the salary, protection, and thin air that should be letting him kick better. Lutz has effectively missed 3 kicks while only being asked to attempt 3 kicks from 40+ and while kicking 11 less times than Grupe. Lutz is not playing better. They are playing about the same and its just hidden because of Lutz' usage. For the same level of play, I would go with the younger, cheaper, healthier player. There may be upgrades out there, but they are not Lutz. In other words : Lutz is gone. Grupe is the kicker. What Lutz does is no longer relevant to the Saints. UK_WhoDat and Rugby Saint II like this.
vpheughan 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,499

11-05-2023, 11:15 PM	#3
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 1,765	Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better Originally Posted by vpheughan In other words : Lutz is gone. Grupe is the kicker. What Lutz does is no longer relevant to the Saints. It's relevant to evaluating the decision to trade Lutz and whether we 'kept the wrong kicker.' Papa Voodoo likes this.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 1,765

11-06-2023, 07:43 AM	#4
Cruize 1000 Posts + Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 4,304	Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better All kickers in the NFL have the ability to kick the ball. Grupe absolutely does. But, in kicks that matter, I have him 0-3. Halo, leilung, SmashMouth and 1 others like this.
Cruize 1000 Posts + Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 4,304

11-06-2023, 07:53 AM	#5
Halo Site Donor MONTHLY Join Date: May 2002 Location: New Orleans, LA Posts: 20,236 Blog Entries: 45	Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better Grupe already flat out lost a game for us, at least for his part. What veteran talent is out there we could potentially bring in? There must be a free agent veteran looking for a paycheck in exchange for accurate, consistent kicks. Have a small competition, and cut or put Grupe on practice squad or something. K Major likes this.

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11-06-2023, 07:53 AM	#6
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,395	Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better We won by seven points. A missed field goal only counts for three points. Not only did Chicago do nothing after the missed field goal, they fumbled the ball back to us. That miss mattered less than the 55 yarder that gave us our first lead of the game at 17-14. We never trailed after that key kick.

11-06-2023, 07:55 AM	#7
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 37,060 Blog Entries: 29	Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better Originally Posted by Halo Grupe already flat out lost a game for us, at least for his part. What veteran talent is out there we could potentially bring in? There must be a free agent veteran looking for a paycheck in exchange for accurate, consistent kicks. Have a small competition, and cut or put Grupe on practice squad or something. While he did indeed, he's also won one for us. At the end of the day, all we want is accuracy consistency.
	Last edited by SmashMouth; 11-06-2023 at 08:27 AM..

11-06-2023, 08:01 AM	#8
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,395	Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better Originally Posted by Halo Grupe already flat out lost a game for us, at least for his part. What veteran talent is out there we could potentially bring in? There must be a free agent veteran looking for a paycheck in exchange for accurate, consistent kicks. Have a small competition, and cut or put Grupe on practice squad or something. If there was a free agent kicker that could consistently execute completely accurate kicks and from deep range he wouldn't be a free agent. Hitting an upright is not an egregious miss. That is literally missing by inches. We commonly see kickers miss by several feet. Besides, there are multiple factors involved in the kick. Was the snap perfect? Was timing and placement of the ball perfect? Was the footing perfect? But, here's a listing of all free agent kickers. Spotrac FA PK's

11-06-2023, 08:06 AM	#9
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,395	Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better Originally Posted by SmashMouth While he did in deed, he's also won one for us. At the end of the day, all we want is accuracy consistency. 47 yards is not a "gimme" and he hit the inner side of the upright.

11-06-2023, 08:13 AM	#10
Halo Site Donor MONTHLY Join Date: May 2002 Location: New Orleans, LA Posts: 20,236 Blog Entries: 45	Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better Originally Posted by AsylumGuido 47 yards is not a "gimme" and he hit the inner side of the upright. Come on, 47 yards, in the NFL, in a DOME with no weather without being in hostile away game? You better believe that is a MUST make kick for an NFL professional kicker. Don't apologize for Grupe. He needs to yank his head out his arse. iceshack149, UK_WhoDat, jnormand and 4 others like this.