I wish you wouldn't attack posters like that. I miss having spkb25 and other people around here. That's likely due to these petty attacks.

So why don’t you try taking the high road and either set him to IGNORE, or scroll on? We’re not all sworn to be as enthusiastic about mediocrity as you are, and this forum allows for much needed venting. And there will be much more ahead, I assure you… So deal with it.

I wish you wouldn't attack posters like that. I miss having spkb25 and other people around here. That's likely due to these petty attacks.

So, what happened to the whole "this season's schedule is going to be so much harder for the Saints" spiel?

https://twitter.com/TheSaintsWire/st...10660980855102

Last season was basically the “easy” schedule Powerball winner.

It is what it is.

Saints play in a weak division with what should be the worst team in the NFL by a wide margin for the foreseeable future, playing them (Carolina) twice is going to buoy the easy schedule. The QB slate this year is much more challenging vs last year.

This year we play COUSINS, COUSINS, MAHOMES, HEBERT, WATSON, LOVE, DAK, HURTS, HIGHLAND PARK & potentially DANIELS.

Last season we played Bagent 🤔 & the passing Pasiano.

Against DECENT QB’s we faced in Love, Lawrence, Highland Park & Jared Goff?? 0-4

It is going to be quite a bit harder if you look at the details:

In 2023 the Saints were expected to have a historically weak strength of schedule: their opponents had a .427 winning percentage the previous season. Yet, expectations do not always usually come to reality, and its common for the real results to regress toward the mean as they say since the best teams are rarely as good and the worst teams rarely as bad as the previous years.

Yet, when the actual 2023 season came to pass, the Saints schedule was about as easy as advertised. I can't find the exact number but I have seen numbers like .449 or .433. It was one of the easiest schedules, not just that season, but in decades. Pre-season strength of schedule is often reported but post-season its much more quiet, I think because the way the numbers usually regress to the mean does not make for exciting stories. Pre-season strengths of schedule show stark differences because the last places teams get to play a bunch of last place teams and the first place teams get to play a bunch of first place teams, but in reality we know the first and last place teams the next season are usually not the same so inevitably that easy schedule is not so easy, except for 2023 Saints and Falcons where it did turn out that way.

But even the final results of your opponents winning percentage does not tell the full story on strength of schedule. Timing plays a role that is harder to factor in. The Saints played a lot of banged up teams and backup QBs in 2023. Their historically easy schedule was probably even easier than it looked when you factor in Tommy Devito, Tyson Bagent, Joshua Dobbs, and Gardner Minshew. They also did not play either Super Bowl team. There were 9 NFL teams with 11 or more wins in 2023 and the Saints only played 1 of the 9.

In 2024 the Saints play a schedule of teams that went .453 last year. This not as easy as .427 going into 2023. Considering .500 is neutral, .453 is .47 below that, and .427 is .73 below that, the 2023 schedule was 55% easier versus the mean.

But strength of schedule tends to revert to the mean, and 2023 was an outlier in not doing that so much. We also know the Falcons added Kurt Cousins and that historically it would be very unlikely for the Panthers to stay so bad two years in a row, but is not taken into account just looking at last years records. And those teams that won 11 or more games last year, where we only played 1 of 9. In 2024 we play 4 of those teams. We also play the Super Bowl Champs on the road. But two games against Carolina, who went 2-15 in 2023, drag down our strength of schedule.

Do we have a fairly easy schedule in 2024? Sure, it looks that way. Maybe it will be the easiest for the year, maybe the 10th easiest if Carolina isn't quite so bad and Cousins improves the Falcons. But, 2023 was historically easy, one of the easiest in the 32 team era. Its not the same. And if our schedule is easier than average all it means is a lower draft pick if we are mediocre and some remote chance of a road wildcard birth where we get mopped up by teams that are on a higher level than we have a chance to prepare for in the regular season. Steel sharpens steel. A weak schedule is not a good thing in the NFL. But our schedule is not as weak as it was in 2023.

Last season was basically the “easy” schedule Powerball winner.

It is what it is.

Saints play in a weak division with what should be the worst team in the NFL by a wide margin for the foreseeable future, playing them (Carolina) twice is going to buoy the easy schedule. The QB slate this year is much more challenging vs last year.

This year we play COUSINS, COUSINS, MAHOMES, HEBERT, WATSON, LOVE, DAK, HURTS, HIGHLAND PARK & potentially DANIELS.

Last season we played Bagent 🤔 & the passing Pasiano.

Against DECENT QB’s we faced in Love, Lawrence, Highland Park & Jared Goff?? 0-4

After season's end our strength of schedule turned out to be harder than first press clippings suggested. Methinks it'll be the same this year, except we have Kubiak at the helm. So really it's a roll of the dice, at the end of the day.

This ^^^

I don't think many realize how great of an affect a competent offensive design and execution can have on a team's success. Pete Carmichael sucked. He hogtied everyone on the offense with his failures in design and playcalling. Just a single score per game we would have walked away with the division.

This ^^^

I don't think many realize how great of an affect a competent offensive design and execution can have on a team's success. Pete Carmichael sucked. He hogtied everyone on the offense with his failures in design and playcalling. Just a single score per game we would have walked away with the division.