What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

There are even more questions than we had at this time last year when the enthusiasm was fairly high before the bottom dropped out. The front office has apparently adopted a cleaner accounting system to get out from under the annual cap hell we go through every year. We signed mostly one year prove it deals with free agents to fill holes before the draft as usual.

Hurst decided to retire before the draft. He wasn't great but he was adequate when called on to play multiple positions.....mostly. He was a solid depth piece.
Peat was so bad that he couldn't play LT so they moved him to RT where he couldn't get his feet set. The team also tried him at right guard, I think, before finally settling in at LG for years. I must admit that I was surprised what a good job he did at LT this year. Although, he certainly took his sweet time! Sometimes the Saints are too quick to move a player to a new position if he doesn't hit the floor running.

McCoy, Peat, and our first round draft pick are the only players I feel comfortable with. That's only 3/5 of a starting O line that needs to be dominant again. We still have quite a few player who could fill in like Young but where's the depth? The team is apparently very high up on the way Young has developed from a late round draft pick into a competent backup. Maybe he can be even better with some real line coaching. Dougie Marrone doomed us and put us behind the learning curve a couple of years.

One of the things I'd like to see from the FO is to bring in another veteran O lineman before TC or wait to see who gets cut? Should we trade for a starter like when we traded Graham for Max Unger, who was a stud!

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

It's been said here and also by many analysists - there are only 3-4 dominant o lines in the NFL. Most other teams have 2, maybe 3 solid starters.

Scheme can cover almost anything and two systems (and personnel) now similar to ours is SF and Miami.

I'm optimistic that with a bit of luck in the health department, we get the most of our line this seson.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Amen, '76!

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

The offensive line is going to be touch and go. But the biggest concern I have is Dennis Allen. Kubiak may do a nice job but he's a very quiet guy. It's going to be up to the vets to set the tone and fill the leadership void again. Bottom to top leadership is hardly ideal. Things that do go wrong will be magnified.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Things all saints fans should realistically expect...every season
1. Bad cap management
2. Loads of dead money
3. Giving away future high picks for a can't miss pick that misses
4. Losing 1 to 2 games you should win that will come back to bite you in the ass as you miss the playoffs (again) due to that 1 or 2 losses
5. Rinse and repeat
6. Ooops forgot ( this board can expect) A jackass all season going 17-0, 16-1, 15-2, 14-3, 13-4, 12-5, 11-6, 10-7, 9-8, 8-9
Then bashing people who demonstrate realistic opinions and disappearing when they end up right again

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

I guess I’m realistically looking for a bunch of “fans” to go around looking for reasons to be triggered.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

New year. I'm optimistic. Definitely want to see Rattler.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

I expect the troll to return. Bingo!

LOL!!!!

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

You are mixing up some details about Andrus Peat. He never failed at Left Tackle, he was drafted in 2015 after Terron Armstead was drafted in 2013 and became the starting Left Tackle in 2014. Armstead had a concussion and a hand injury in 2014 so maybe the front office felt they could have their cake and eat it too, taking Peat as insurance at Left Tackle but using him as a Right Tackle if Armstead stayed healthy. Instead, Peat just couldn't get the knack for playing Right Tackle and really struggled there. Eventually he shifted to Left Guard. I can't remember if he ever played Right Guard much. But instead of either bowing out or staying healthy, Terron Armstead was constantly suffering minor injuries. Peat filled in fairly admirably at Left Tackle when Armstead was out, but it probably hurt his development to be switching positions all the time. I view Peat as a cautionary tale not to spend a 1st round pick to draft a player to play out of position, as a backup plan, or for perceived theoretical positional flexibility. If you want to find a jack of all trades backup in the 5th round great, but you should look for stars in the 1st round, and most stars have honed their skills with great expertise at their natural position not playing musical chairs. Musical chairs is an egotistic novelty where the coaches try make themselves look brilliant and creative by putting players in a position that is likely to be bad for them and then taking credit on the rare occasions it isn't.

Anyway, Peat signed with the Raiders, so now you can feel good about 2/5ths of our oline.

Sure, scheme might cover some things, but if one oline completely misses his assignment, that scheme is going to be Derek Carr writing his wife and kids name on his hand to cover chronic brain injuries. Ultimately you don't pay great oline and great pass rushers big cash unless matchups matter, and they do. You know what scheme can cover? It could have covered not paying Cesar Ruiz $10 million plus a year to be perhaps one poppy seed or eye lash or dew drop more powerful than the average minimum salary journeyman oline. But I don't think it can cover that your only proven standout oline is McCoy and you have to hope a 1st rounder is ready to dominate now to give you a second, and the only guy who is not worried a dude on a forum who spent the entire offseason talking about how it takes young oline 5 extra years to develop these days because they are only allowed to read books about blocking written in Latin by priests in college these days.

My big questions are:

Will Carr get injured behind our questionable oline, continue to decline as a player much like many middle age mediocre QBs like Drew Bledsoe did at this time in their careers, hold steady and give us more of the same ups and downs, or somehow have a good year picking up where he left off against bad competition and low pressure the last few games and do it against good competition when we control our own destiny?

Will Kubiak be better or worse than Carmichael? Carmichael was a wizard when he was in the room with Sean Payton, but not when he became the offensive coordinator behind a lousy AFC West head coach fired for losing so many games (DA). So now we have Kubiak who is basically the same story in a different order, wizard when he was in the room with Kyle Shanahan, but not when he became the play caller behind a lousy AFC West head coach fired for losing so many games (Hackett). Hiring a young offensive coordinator like Kubiak made sense, but Carmichael, Hackett, and Allen were all once young too. Hopefully this is a situation where a fool strikes gold again, like when Haslett hired Mike McCarthy.

Will there be any pass rush? Chase Young had surgery immediately after signing and has a contract structure and past injury history that screams "I might not actually play much, who knows?" Rosies are confident Cam Jordan will bounce back, but he is at an age where the opposite is much more likely. Our draft pick DE from last year looked like a bust. Demario Davis is a year older.

Will the Falcons be better, or worse? The Falcons could be much better with a solid QB like Kirk Cousins, but Cousins is also coming off an ACL and is an older player. His backup tore the same ACL twice in college. Can you imagine the demoralization if the Falcons spent $180 million and the #8 overall pick at QB and their week 1 starter is Taylor Heineike. It could happen, week 1 or sometime after. The Falcons might be the mostly likely team in the division to win 12 games if everything goes right, but if it goes wrong they could be as or more likely than the Panthers to win 0 games. This matters a lot for the Saints. If things go wrong for the Falcons, the Saints could face the weakest division in NFL history with the two worst teams in the league and Saints and Bucs could both make the playoffs by sweeping the bottom half of their division, but would not likely dominate there.

Will the Saints find young stars? This is an old team. Even if we keep Lattimore, Kamara, Davis, Jordan, Ram, etc this year, the writing is on the wall for those guys. Unless Davis is going to open a DD56 supplement store in Manhattan he cannot continue to play at this level indefinitely. Kamara and Lattimore are old for their positions and its starting to show. Jordan and Ram are probably done. But you never know what can happen. Kool Aid could be better than anyone imagines. Some random late round pick could bust out. For the future, we need those things to happen. We also need to move on from more of these aging players, and having cheap alternatives will help with that. Maybe even Rattler. It will never get cheaper to move on from Carr, because if we don't move on we will likely restructure his contract which will make it move expensive to move on later than it appears now if you don't factor in a restructure.

NowI think this is a legit question. He was in the room with Kyle Shannahan, but the year before that he was in the room with Nathaniel Hackett and a historically bad Broncos offense.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Why the book posts, Bako? Why not release it in chapters?

:D

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Netflix approach.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

I guess we're fixing to find out... isn't it fun? As always, we all feel overly optimistic after a draft and UDFAs. Something about this class feels different. And it's not just The Bayou Rattler. Maybe it's hopium. Maybe it won't be. :bng:

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Troll Chow is what you munch on when you’re not smoking hopium.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

We definitely had a better draft than the Falcons, who spent their high pick on QB and came out lacking depth at QB because all they have is a 35yo coming off an ACL and an unproven rookie who tore the same ACL twice in college and was projected to be a 2nd round pick.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Continuity on the Oline.

You fix that, you’ll always have a chance.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Right on brother! There is a chance that with some real coaching these guys could get the job done. Especially, since we are going to be an attacking run first offense. Set the tone baby!

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

The Saints have the most talented roster in the division. Kubiak's scheme will help the offense in massive ways. Carr is going to have a Pro Bowl season. The defense is legit. The Eagles are loaded by I don't have confidence in them pulling it all together. I believe the 49ers are going to take a step backwards. I can see the Saints winning the NFC. Shocking the world AGAIN and beating the greatest QB playing and winning its second Super Bowl.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Seems totally plausible to me.

Who Dat!!

:bng:

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

I wish I was confident enough in our oline to believe that some of them could take a step backwards before being knocked off their feet. How a QB who has never won a playoff game and a coach who has beaten something like two or three winning teams in a 5 year career are going to combine with an extremely makeshift oline where that QB has minimum protection to rely on scheme to get that QB a pro bowl season and win 3-4 straight playoff games, well, it seems highly improbably to me. Why would a QB who has been in the league what 11 years have by far his most consistent season behind the worst oline he has ever played behind? Are offensive linemen just coming into the league a lot more polished and ready to start than ever before and the draft pick will be so good he can cover two rushers while switching to left tackle?

Would you care to also promise that Ryan Ramczyk is going to play 17 games and make the all pro team?

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

The best defense that Carr ever had with the Raiders was ranked 25th in the league. Most years they were among the two or three worst. Carr easily played well enough to make the playoffs and win multiple games almost every year had he even an average defense.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

:popcorn:

If we hit on all OL, meaning drafted and UDFAs, there is a chance, albeit small one. You never know, however.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

But he didn’t, so he didn’t. And he doesn’t so he won’t. Deal with it. Oh that’s right, you do, and you will.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

So, what happened to the whole "this season's schedule is going to be so much harder for the Saints" spiel?

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Well, an easy schedule was no help last year. They better step up this time around. :roll:

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

There were several teams on our schedule last year that were deemed "easy" that turned out to be pretty good teams. Development of existing players, the addition of new players, and a bit of luck in the health department can easily turn around a team's poor or average performance from one year to the next. On the other hand, teams that were relatively successful one season could really come back down to earth with the loss of a key player here or there through free agency or injury, and/or a bit of bad luck on or off the field

It's hard to place much meaning on the whole "strength of schedule" deal.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

27,000,000 in dead money. Probably worth a couple of pretty good players roggt there. Around here they call that a cap genius.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Around here some people are called trolls.

By the way, troll, I suppose you don't realize that the average dead cap figure for 2024 in the NFL is $25,877,681, huh? I guess the whole league is full of geniuses, huh?

:dunce:

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

I wish you wouldn't attack posters like that. I miss having spkb25 and other people around here. That's likely due to these petty attacks.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

spkb25, if you haven't noticed over the years, has made it a point to attack me and the Saints as a team. I miss many others that have left for various reasons, but not this troll. Not one bit. He crossed the line when he boasted here about making fun of his Special Ed students and excused it because he said they thought it was fun. I'll never forget that. It was sick. It still turns my stomach.

All he's done since is tell us how much he thinks OUR team sucks. Check his signature. He disowned the Saints, if he was ever a fan to begin with, which I have never seen any indication of being the case.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

So why don’t you try taking the high road and either set him to IGNORE, or scroll on? We’re not all sworn to be as enthusiastic about mediocrity as you are, and this forum allows for much needed venting. And there will be much more ahead, I assure you… So deal with it.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Honestly, ice, it's my fault for not having blocked the jerk like a couple of others that have nothing to contribute to the site.

My bad. Sorry!

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

He just likes to hear himself talk. He tried to get me banned because after I learned he had colon cancer I said "rectum damn near killed him"

And he would flip out about it and beg to get me banned

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Dude he just posts nonstop, it is like watching a maniac go through multiple episodes over like a 4 minute time frame.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

It is going to be quite a bit harder if you look at the details:

In 2023 the Saints were expected to have a historically weak strength of schedule: their opponents had a .427 winning percentage the previous season. Yet, expectations do not always usually come to reality, and its common for the real results to regress toward the mean as they say since the best teams are rarely as good and the worst teams rarely as bad as the previous years.

Yet, when the actual 2023 season came to pass, the Saints schedule was about as easy as advertised. I can't find the exact number but I have seen numbers like .449 or .433. It was one of the easiest schedules, not just that season, but in decades. Pre-season strength of schedule is often reported but post-season its much more quiet, I think because the way the numbers usually regress to the mean does not make for exciting stories. Pre-season strengths of schedule show stark differences because the last places teams get to play a bunch of last place teams and the first place teams get to play a bunch of first place teams, but in reality we know the first and last place teams the next season are usually not the same so inevitably that easy schedule is not so easy, except for 2023 Saints and Falcons where it did turn out that way.

But even the final results of your opponents winning percentage does not tell the full story on strength of schedule. Timing plays a role that is harder to factor in. The Saints played a lot of banged up teams and backup QBs in 2023. Their historically easy schedule was probably even easier than it looked when you factor in Tommy Devito, Tyson Bagent, Joshua Dobbs, and Gardner Minshew. They also did not play either Super Bowl team. There were 9 NFL teams with 11 or more wins in 2023 and the Saints only played 1 of the 9.

In 2024 the Saints play a schedule of teams that went .453 last year. This not as easy as .427 going into 2023. Considering .500 is neutral, .453 is .47 below that, and .427 is .73 below that, the 2023 schedule was 55% easier versus the mean.

But strength of schedule tends to revert to the mean, and 2023 was an outlier in not doing that so much. We also know the Falcons added Kurt Cousins and that historically it would be very unlikely for the Panthers to stay so bad two years in a row, but is not taken into account just looking at last years records. And those teams that won 11 or more games last year, where we only played 1 of 9. In 2024 we play 4 of those teams. We also play the Super Bowl Champs on the road. But two games against Carolina, who went 2-15 in 2023, drag down our strength of schedule.

Do we have a fairly easy schedule in 2024? Sure, it looks that way. Maybe it will be the easiest for the year, maybe the 10th easiest if Carolina isn't quite so bad and Cousins improves the Falcons. But, 2023 was historically easy, one of the easiest in the 32 team era. Its not the same. And if our schedule is easier than average all it means is a lower draft pick if we are mediocre and some remote chance of a road wildcard birth where we get mopped up by teams that are on a higher level than we have a chance to prepare for in the regular season. Steel sharpens steel. A weak schedule is not a good thing in the NFL. But our schedule is not as weak as it was in 2023.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Last season was basically the “easy” schedule Powerball winner.

It is what it is.

Saints play in a weak division with what should be the worst team in the NFL by a wide margin for the foreseeable future, playing them (Carolina) twice is going to buoy the easy schedule. The QB slate this year is much more challenging vs last year.

This year we play COUSINS, COUSINS, MAHOMES, HEBERT, WATSON, LOVE, DAK, HURTS, HIGHLAND PARK & potentially DANIELS.

Last season we played Bagent 🤔 & the passing Pasiano.

Against DECENT QB’s we faced in Love, Lawrence, Highland Park & Jared Goff?? 0-4

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

And there ^^^ you have it.

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After season's end our strength of schedule turned out to be harder than first press clippings suggested. Methinks it'll be the same this year, except we have Kubiak at the helm. So really it's a roll of the dice, at the end of the day.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

This ^^^

I don't think many realize how great of an affect a competent offensive design and execution can have on a team's success. Pete Carmichael sucked. He hogtied everyone on the offense with his failures in design and playcalling. Just a single score per game we would have walked away with the division.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

Woulda Coulda Shoulda… Where have we heard that before? This time next year, you’ll be saying it again, and we might be thinking about a new HEAD COACH (imagine that, as if it makes a difference, because it does) as we enter into yet another year of redevelopment.

Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season
 

I don't think many realize how great of an affect a competent offensive line can have on a team's success. And ours relies on Penning and features zero tackles who have the combination of a previous successful NFL season and cartilage between the bones in their knees and a starting guard named 'TBD scheme will make up for it' playing next to one of those tackles.

Sometimes a competent offensive scheme cannot be executed without a competent offensive line, and attempts to compensate for incompetent offensive linemen wreck the scheme because nobody can focus on anything but extra blocking assignments to cover for ole ferdinand the bull at left tackle.