It is unlikely, but still remotely possible, that Haener or Rattler could be as good or better than Carr has been in the past. It is much more likely that Haener or Rattler could be as good or better than Carr is in the future, due to Carr declining and the team looking to evaluate cheaper options with more upside. The two are very different questions. Its like comparing prime Donovan McNabb or Drew Bledsoe in the Super Bowl vs later career McNabb or Bledsoe after they put all their hopes on switching teams being the magic ingredient to get to the next left, found themselves still on the B list, and lost the hunger to prove it and moved to the D list. That could happen to Carr this year or next.


The chances of a 1st round pick QB being better than Derek Carr has been are indeed low. 1 in 6 could be reasonable. I am not sure they are way worse if that pick is in the 10-60 range not top 5-10, so taking shots later is fair too.

The thing is, though Carr has been pretty good, he has not been good enough to win a ring. He is also highly paid and aging. When so-so QBs like Carr win a ring, it is usually because they are on their rookie contract or a bargain contract, cost little, and the team is loaded with other talent with cash to add more. Or it can be when a veteran QB goes to a team that is highly loaded and has not yet mortgaged the future and is ready to win now. It will never work to add a QB like Carr to a mediocre .500ish team with a decent but aging defense and a poor oline and coach that is already cash strapped, and gradually build around the aging mediocre QB while watching their salary increase from 30 to 40 to 50 million a year for mediocrity. Its just not a valid formula.

So the best thing for the Saints at QB would be to take a chance with a young player. If they are great, they may win for a decade or two. If they are horrible, there will be a draft pick to take a chance on another in 2-3 years, and during those 2-3 years they can draft talented young oline, pass rushers, receivers, etc with their picks while evaluating the first QB, giving more chances for the next. If the young QB is pretty good but not great, a lateral move from Carr, they will still be much cheaper than Carr on the Salary Cap, leaving room to give them more help than Carr has. And when they get older and more expensive if its still not working, there could be the chance to trade them for picks and rebuild like the Lions did with Stafford or the Packers with Rodgers.

The draft is a gamble. But when you gamble you have a chance to win. Paying Carr $40 million is buying a bronze medal at the pawn shop instead of entering the race at all.