Potential 2025 Rebuild Math
 

Per overthecap the Saints are $91 million over the 2025 cap:

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-orleans-saints
(click from 2024 over to 2025 after following the link)

If the Saints decide to rebuild not kick the can, like if we don't make the playoffs this year and are 7-10 or something like some analysts have predicted, here is what a rebuild could look like:

$91.5 million over 2025 cap:
-$30 million Derek Carr Designated Post-June-1 cut.
-$21 million Marson Lattimore Designated Post-June-1 cut.
-$18 million Ryan Ramczyk Agrees to Reduce 2025 Salary to $1 million as cap maneuver then Retires or Cut Post-June-1.
-$19 million Alvin Kamara Pre-June-1 cut.
-$2 million Foster Moreau Pre-June-1 cut.
-$1.5 million Jamaal Williams contract automatically voids 3/15/25.
= -$92 million.

Certainly a rebuild could also include players like Jordan, Hill, or Mathieu moving on, but this is just a simple scenario to show the math.

I know this is hypothetical and there are some timing issues but it is a realistic way the Saints could quickly rebuild if the aging core does not win in 2024 with Derek Carr. Technically, designated post-june-1 cuts don't actually lower cap until June 1 and we have to be under the cap at all times, but the $51 million from Carr and Lattimore could be saved in the interim by converting salary of players such as McCoy, Jordan, Hill, Granderson, Ruiz, Davis, Mathieu, etc either via restructure or to a bonus that triggers after June 1. Then post june 1 when that money comes in, it gives us money to sign draft picks and extensions for young stars. Reducing Ram's salary to $1 million would have an immediate effect even if his actual retirement is post June 1 as long as he agrees to it. If Jordan, Mathieu, Hill, Kamara, or Lattimore decided to retire, which depending on how 2024 goes could all be possible, similar moves could be made there. Also, the Saints are currently $11 million under the 2024 salary cap, and if that money is not spent, it would carry over. I don't think under the cap is already counting that but I am not sure.

Anyway, I just wanted to show that a rebuild could be realistic in 2025 thanks to our restraint in 2024. I don't know if we will move on from Carr, but if we don't see improvement, it would seem logical to move on if we can and especially not to restructure in a way that could force paying him $50 million 2025 and/or having to extend him beyond 2025 to restructure the $50 million. At this point I think its very clear we would not want to pay Ram and Lattimore their $18-25 million salaries in 2025 or make long term restructures for them. We drafted their replacements in the the 2024 draft. So at a minimum I expect us to move on from Ram and Lattimore, with Kamara also likely if he does not have a major resurgence or we don't do a stupid pre-emptive extension before we know.

I don't think a Saints team would be un-competitive with this rebuild. Its realistic that Fuaga can replace Ram, Kool Aid or Taylor can replace Lattimore, Miller or a rookie draft pick or a cheap veteran like Cooks or Elliott can replace the level of production we have seen from Kamara in 22-23, and one of our young QBs or a 1st round pick QB or a discounted cast-away like the deal the Steelers got on Russell Wilson can replace Carr. And then we would have tons of more cap room in 2026-2027 to sign younger players. And we would get to watch a young QB whose ceiling we dont know, who could maybe be the next Purdy, Mahomes, Hurts, Jackson, etc.

Re: Potential 2025 Rebuild Math
 

Very well illustrated. However,“rebuild could be realistic” and “logical” have not proven to be woven into our front office for quite some time now.

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Do you actually go out of your way to find this kind ^ of stupid @ss stuff?

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If Carr stinks it up this year and we don’t look good I’m 100% okay with a full rebuild.

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I think we're in the middle of a soft rebuild. We didn't extend anyone besides Shaheed and we didn't throw away a bunch of draft picks to move up for a player who will spend too much time on the trainers table and not the field. If we lose badly I could see a rebuild coming but our defense is still good. If Klint Kubiak gets us moving in the right direction we could get caught up on the cap and be competitive in 2025. I do believe that we are headed in the right direction.

Re: Potential 2025 Rebuild Math
 

I for one do not think Carr will stink it up. Nor do I think we will struggle. I believe our already solid defense will take yet another step forward and our offense will shock certain fans with its progression.

To me it seems certain fans are hoping for failure because of the desire to replace preconceived personnel failures projected to save their own insecure face. I for one have never and will never hope for any negativity upon my beloved Saints for mine or anyone else's personal needs.

Who Dat!!

:bng:

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I’m hoping for 4,500 yards, 35 TD’s, and 8 picks.

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Super Bowl Champions set to break the Belichick/Brady record! Let’s Do This!

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I am hoping for the same except from Rattler because that way we would have $30 million more dollars and 10 more years of that performance. There are also 10 years of stats that say Carr can’t hit those numbers and 0 years of stats that say Rattler or Haener can’t.

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That is absolutely doable with a viable offensive scheme. He had 3,878 yards, 25 TD's, and only 8 picks last year in that horribly designed and called offense that Carmichael dialed up. Just 37 yards more per game puts him at that 4,500 and there's no reason that can't be done. Averaging a little over a half a TD a game, also very doable, would get him to 35 TD's.

Oh, as a comparison, Brock Purdy had 4,280, 32, and 11 last season in the same offense we are picking up.

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One notable absence in our offense, is Brock Purdy. We have Carrbage.

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Notice how DA went out of his way to defend Carr in 2023?

Our best shot at seeing anything remotely close to Purdy on Sunday's is the development of Haener or Rattler in a year or two.

It won't be Carrmax.

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...

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D.A. and Carr are two heads of the same dead or dying creature.

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Only time will tell what will happen. If Carr has a better season than he did last year and we win more games, surely we will keep him. But all coins have two sides, so he may have a worse season. If he has a worse season, its good to have an out. So, I explored what that out would look like and showed its possible. This beats just saying offhand 'we have an out in 2026' but ignoring that restructuring in 2025 will make that out as big or bigger a cap hit than it would be in 2025. If someone who thinks the better season scenario is more likely wants to write a post about what a contract restructure would look like if we win the Super Bowl or get close, they are free to do so.

In the end I think there have been a lot of attempts to salvage Derek Carr: He just needed a better offensive minded head coach... enter Jon Gruden. He just needed a true #1 receiver he would have good chemistry with... enter Davante Adams. He just needed a change of scenery away from that Raiders stink... enter New Orleans. Now he just needs young potentially innovative offensive coordinator... enter Klint Kubiak. Will the fourth time be the charm??? We'll see.

Re: Potential 2025 Rebuild Math
 

I don't know what you are looking at, but Carr has had a pretty solid career to date. He was saddled with historically bad defenses (the best of which was ranked 25!) for his whole Raiders career which resulted in poor records several of those years, but the last I checked NFL teams are made up of 53 roster players, not just one.

And yes, you can say every coin has two sides, but you always seem to be playing with a two tailed one in your philosophizing.

;)

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I thought Bako was erring on the headed side and maybe eyeing the rose colored glasses from across the room there for a minute… but anyway…
While we sit here flipping rusty coins, other teams are putting together potential championship packages.

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I think for myself and have my own belief system. The entire Drew Brees - Matt Ryan era I ragged on Matt Ryan relentlessly and got in fights with other Saints fans who felt Matt Ryan was a great QB, deeply respected him, and would be glad to have Matt Ryan on the Saints if we had to have any other QB but Brees. I felt that Matt Ryan was a mediocre QB whose pretty good enough stats didn't tell the whole story of how he couldn't win close games and couldn't get it done in the playoffs and just padded his stats in the regular season. I celebrated with a round of drinks every time the Falcons signed Matt Ryan to a big extension that made him one of the highest paid QBs in the league and sapped the Falcons salary cap and I truly wanted to see him retire a Falcon for life at 45 so that the Falcons could remain trapped in mediocrity forever. I called Matt Bryant the true leader of the Falcons, because the only times Matt Ryan was ever credited with doing anything clutch in the playoffs it was actually getting Bryant in range for a 55 yard kick. I said I would rather have Matt Bryant for $30 million or whatever than Matt Ryan because at least Bryant does not have negative value as a player who ruins draft position in the regular season then chokes in the big games and playoffs. Many Saints fans were deeply hurt by my criticism of Matt Ryan who they considered a very handsome and hard working young man with admirable virtues and character. I never said he was a bad person, just that he was a loser. My problem is, now, we have a Matt Ryan clone at QB. And my views remain consistent. I don't like excuses. Many great QBs have got to the playoffs with a bottom ranked defense. Brees did. Some have won it all with lousy defenses. And some QBs have made their defenses better by being great leaders on the field who inspire the entire team. Patrick Mahomes just won a ring with possibly the worst wide receiving corps in the league. He won another with the type of ankle injury that caused Cam Jordan to write off an entire $14 million season. Derek Carr is not great. He is good. And the best of that good comes when it matters least, and the least when it matters most. He racked up stats against bad teams and has not beat good teams with the Saints unless there QB was injured or our mathematical odds of making the playoffs were close to zero and it didnt matter. If I insulted Matt Ryan for over a decade and embraced the same qualities in Derek Carr I would be a hypocrite as far as I am concerned. And I have a right to that view and to be consistent in my views.

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“And the best of that good comes when it matters least, and the least when it matters most.”

^^^ THAT RIGHT THERE.

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Well good for you!

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Super Bowl winners don't rebuild. They reload. :)

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We don’t even rebuild. We rehash.

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because you have gone for the current status, hook, line, and sinker. :beatnik:

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i guess that is why the Raiders let Carr go...his solid career. the raiders got rid of the better portion of their offense and kept the rest. makes sense. :beatnik:

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Unfortunately time will tell....some pleased and some pissed at the end of this season. I would challenge each of us to revisit this at the end of the season, to see who has the cohonies to admit they missed. Carr sucked azz or Carr had a great season.

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At the end of the day, Carr is decent. Average. Middle of the road.

A bridge QB. He will never lead us to the SB (that IS the goal).

It is what it is.

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Carr may end up being somewhere in between. Let's say Carr has an average season for an NFL QB. That makes him one of the 15-17 best QB's in the entire world. Elite QB's that can almost singlehandedly carry a team to a championship are few and far between. They are generational. Some teams have never been fortunate enough to ever even have one. We had one in Drew Brees. Just like many other NFL teams we may never be lucky enough to have one again, at least not anytime soon. In the meantime the ONLY way to win another championship is to have one of those "average" QB's coupled with some weapons around him and a great deal of luck.

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There is a way to win with an average QB but its not what we are doing. The trick to winning with an average QB is instead of going 'all in' every year, you hold something back some years, don't spend every dollar you can, cut loose some aging players whose days you know are numbered and eat the cap hits immediately. Tell your young guys to play hard, don't tank, but realistically some of the young unproven guys will be good and some will struggle and you will probably lose some games. Then you come out with high draft picks and lots of salary cap space. Then when you go all in again, starting from way under the salary cap, all in means a much bigger spending spree and war chest, coupled with a core of high draft picks, and bam you can even win with an average QB sometimes.

Champions often reload by rebuilding. Before the Bucs signed Tom Brady they were one of the furthest teams under the salary cap so they had a war chest to spend on Brady, Gronk, and other players. That was a rebuild. The best teams rebuild without you even knowing it. The 49ers carried over a ton of unused salary cap from year to year while the Saints max it out and accomplish less.

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You say it's all about winning it all, right? And when did the 49er's win their last Super Bowl? If I'm not mistaken the Cowgirls have even won a Super Bowl since the 49er's won their last.

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Shirley, you digress…

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I will admit going to OT against Mahomes in the Super Bowl is respectable too. When Carr does that, call me back. But alas even if the Super Bowl was the absolute only thing that mattered, your argument doesn't hold water, because I also pointed out a team that rebuilt and won the Super Bowl.

Ultimately to me the Super Bowl is the goal. But when you get to the conference championship or super bowl and play respectably, it does mean you are close, its a good thing. Having a .500-ish or barely winning record and maybe sneaking into the playoffs and getting trounced means little to me.

You admit that not every team can have a Patrick Mahomes, but you ignore the fact that the last teams to win it all without a Patrick Mahomes did so by not settling for an 'average' qb (Rams dumping Goff) and going under the cap to build a financial war chest before going all-in (Bucs with Brady). One could also argue that the Bucs didn't settle for an 'average' QB when they let Winston walk. Yet you think we can win it all by settling for an average qb and spending the same cash every year because we never save a dime to double it up the next year?

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Even when not “winning it all”, one would have to be on crack, no matter how loyal a Saints Fan one might be, to compare the quality of product between last season’s niners (no matter how much one might hate them) and our Saints.

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So basically, what you are are saying, is that we need to do what the Bucs did with Brady and go all in on Mahomes when he becomes available in five years. Sounds good to me. Until then, give me an average QB until that move becomes available. Right there with you on that!

At least we won't go twice as long since our last Championship like both the Cowboys (29 years) and 49er's (30 years) have done.

:bng: :chug:

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Bro, you’re happy with stinking up the dome just bad enough to renovate the restrooms for as long as you live. Sit down.

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lol

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+1.

And to 99.999 percent of the Owners/GMs, coaches.

Did you catch the very first episode of Giants Hard Knocks? Their GM said it several times within the first 5 minutes of the show.

MINDSET.

If LD Bell misses the post season (again), he needs to be shown the door.

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I doubt anyone truly feels that the Super Bowl isn't the ultimate goal. I sure don't. But there have to be intermediary goals for those in charge. There's no guarantee any move made by any franchise will result in a path to the championship or backfire and lead to years of struggle. Those goals may include a winning record. Or a playoff win. Or a trip to the conference championship game. Or even an appearance in the Super Bowl itself, win or lose.

Re: Potential 2025 Rebuild Math
 

Let me clarify. We can't go all in like the Bucs did with Brady and Gronk if we don't build a war chest first by not going all-in when we don't have a war chest of carried over cap and don't have an elite QB. You have to save to spend. Living paycheck to paycheck and maxxing the credit cards that were already maxxed before making the minimum payment doesn't work. Every dime you could but don't borrow/spend now is a dime you can borrow/spend later, and by waiting until later you can build up a war chest to spend it all at once and overwhelm the competition. This is a league where 4-13 one year and 13-4 the next year is a better outcome than 8-9 one year and 9-8 the next year, so spending money unevenly makes more sense unless you have a Patrick Mahomes who can make you 13-4 every year.

I don't expect Patrick Mahomes will become available as a free agent or via a reasonable trade offer any time soon, unless he becomes so banged up we should not want him or that he would be very risky to acquire.

Going all-in does not necessarily mean going all-in on the QB position. Hypothetically, a team could win with a Carr-like QB I guess, by going all in on extreme surrounding talent. Lets say Kool Aid developed into Deion Sanders, Chase Young resumed his early career track and developed into the next Reggie White, Demario Davis showed no signs of aging, and Fuaga made the pro bowl, and the Saints went 12-5 but could not beat the 49ers or Lions quite yet. At that point you could go all-in to win now by signing or trading for pro bowl caliber players at RT, WR, TE etc. Like the spending sprees that, got the Bucs and Rams their rings. But to go on a spending spree like that, you need the cash, so it helps if you are not already starting $90 million over the cap and can barely get under and sign one name player.

Its all about timing, but if you max out like every year is your time, then when it really is your time, you can't do anything extra that offseason. It will be a shame if the Saints do get within reach of a ring but can't make the extra push for the players they need because too much cash was wasted in deferred compensation to aging players and trying to 'win now' every previous year when it wasn't in reach. You have to save to really be able to spend. And if you don't have a QB like Mahomes, you probably need to be able to really spend when it counts to win.

I never mentioned the Cowboys. If anything the Cowboys are an example of the failure of trying to 'reload not rebuild' and have modeled the always competitive and never on top results you define as success.

As for the 49ers, it makes no sense for you to call 3 Super Bowl appearances, all close games, an abject failure, but at the same time argue that by poaching their 1 year passing games coordinator offensive assistant, we are guaranteed a perfect record because they are so great.

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20-0 Baby!!

Championship!!

:bng: