BakoSaint

I predict the Saints will have a record of 8-9.

I know to some will think this impossibly pessimistic, basically can’t happen, I am blind to the dramatic improvements that will mean the Saints cannot possibly do worse than last year and overall are Super Bowl contenders. But the fact is the same people have been saying the same things the last 3 years, predicting at least 12 wins each year, and each year the Saints have won 7-9 games. My view is that the addition of a young unproven offensive coordinator, a defensive end on a prove-it one year contract who has had mixed results in the past, and the usual story of players injured last year who could be healthier and an NFL draft that the team participated in that could be logic for all 32 teams to have better records in 2024, cannot necessarily be counted on as major improvements, and although an easier than average schedule, the Saints 2024 schedule will be much more challenging than 2023.

Basically here is a short run down of the factors I considered:

Pluses:

Klint Kubiak: Minor plus but very little evidence a new OC can make a dramatic difference. Kyle Shannahan himself had losing records his first season as Falcons OC and his first two seasons as 49ers coach, so Kubiak instantly making us a top playoff contender in 1 year because he worked with Shannahan 1 year is an extreme stretch.

Chase Young: Potential plus. We need any pass rush we can get. He had had complaints with injuries and effort but if he does stay healthy and produce he will help the defense.

Minuses:

Oline is a major issue. Subtracted 3 starters in Ram, Peat, and Hurst. Added one rookie who seems good but probably won't be as good as Ram rookie year.

I still believe the final play on the victory formation last year could mean that DA doesn't have a firm grip on the locker room. It was glossed over and called no big deal, but what if it was, and the team simply could not discipline players because they needed them to agree to restructures and extensions to get under the cap?

Backup QB is a risk. In the long term its exciting but in the short term its not clear if these players are ready to take the field behind a makeshift oline against Judon and Parsons. Carr had 2 concussions and a shoulder injury last year and only avoided missing time due to lack of past concussions and good bye week timing. 2 concussions this year and Carr misses games.

WR unit could be weak. Thomas played 10 games at starter level and was not replaced. Olave and Shaheed tend to miss a few games.

Aging core players on the defense and weak salary cap position that hindered offseason. Cutting back spending was smart long term but some negative short term is to be expected.

Harder schedule in 2024 than 2023. Even if its weak for the year, its not historically weak.

I break our schedule into 4 groups: 6 games against playoff teams from outside the division, 4 games against Tampa and a much improved Falcons roster both of which I see as slightly better teams than the Saints, 4 games against teams I view to be dangerous to us but toss ups (Broncos with Sean Payton a better coach, Chargers with Harbaugh and Hebert better coach and QB, Raiders with Pierce a young motivated coach who went 5-4 after taking over, and Redskins with Daniels a mobile QB), and 3 easy wins against Carolina twice and the Giants. I see us going 2-4 against the playoff teams outside the division, 1-3 or perhaps 2-2 against the Bucs and Falcons, 2-2 against the dangerous toss up teams, and 3-0 against the easy wins. That gets us to 8-9 or perhaps 9-8 if Atlanta is not as strong as they look.