The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum

AsylumGuido · 02-16-2025, 12:42 PM

I guess on way to look at it is, if we are rebuilding and going to have to absorb Carr's cap hit anyway, why not retain him? If you (not you personally, Bako) think Carr sucks so badly why not let him contribute to our crappy season for a better pick in 2026? Or are y'all afraid that he'll contribute to too many wins?

neugey · 02-16-2025, 01:30 PM

The decision to keep or cut should be darn near 100% up to Moore. That was the point of hiring him.

BakoSaint · 02-16-2025, 02:04 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

I guess on way to look at it is, if we are rebuilding and going to have to absorb Carr's cap hit anyway, why not retain him? If you (not you personally, Bako) think Carr sucks so badly why not let him contribute to our crappy season for a better pick in 2026? Or are y'all afraid that he'll contribute to too many wins?

I would agree if it was free to keep Carr, but its a falsehood being promoted by dishonest or uninformed members of the media that it is somehow free or actually saves money to keep Carr. The 2025 minimum payments of keeping or cutting Carr are essentially the same (if Carr doesn't sign elsewhere for $10m+), but the total balance owed against future salary caps increases by $30-40 million if we keep Carr. Most likely we would save $40 million long term by cutting Carr because he would sign with another team that would pay him over $10 million, likely $20-25 million I think, and his $10 million guaranteed roster bonus is subject to offset.

The basic thing to understand is that whenever you write a player a new check, you have more money charged against your salary cap, but there are ways to delay some of that money for up to 5 years, but its going to be charged eventually once you write the check. If we keep Carr this year, we have to write him $40 million in new checks.

Here is an approximate breakdown, assuming Carr would sign for over $10 million elsewhere if cut and trigger the offset.

Keep Carr: $51 million cap charge for 2025, $29 million in prorated money against the cap in 2026 and beyond, which is due even if Carr is cut in 2026. Plus another $50 million against the cap 2026 and beyond if he is retained to 'play out his contract.'

Restructure Carr: $20 million cap charge for 2025, $61 million in protated money against the cap in 2026 and beyond, which it due even if Carr is cut in 2026. Plus another $50 million against the cap 2026 and beyond if he is retained to 'play out his contract.'

Cut Carr as an ordinary pre-June-1 cut. $40 million cap charge for 2025. Zero obligations against the cap for Carr in 2026 and beyond.

Cut Carr with a post-June-1 cut tag. $11 million cap charge for 2025 and $29 million cap charge for 2026.

As you can see, when you consider the cap beyond 2025 year, it saves the Saints $30 million salary that nobody pays and $10 million roster bonus that another team offsets if they cut Carr now. If they wait until 2026 they pay that money and that $40 million has to hit against future caps. If they keep him in 2026 they owe another $50 million which can be restructured and spread out but will hit the cap eventually.

If the the Saints restructured everything in 2025 and 2026 and just let Carr play out his contract, they would face $81 million in dead cap in 2027. They currently owe Carr $17 million dead money in 2027 with the contract as is. Restructuring his $40 million in 2025 would spread it out to $8 million a year over 5 years, so $24 million more for dead money in 2027 since $16 million would be paid in the first 2 years, and then another $40 million dead money from a 2026 restructure, where $50 million is spread out to $10m/yr for 5 years, putting money out to 2030. But all that 2027-2030 money hits at once in 2027 if his contract voids, so $81 million dead cap in 2027. As you can see, the problem doesnt get better if we wait, it gets worse. $40 million dead cap now is chump change.

BakoSaint · 02-16-2025, 02:10 PM

Originally Posted by neugey

The decision to keep or cut should be darn near 100% up to Moore. That was the point of hiring him.

If Loomis asked all the candidates what we should do with Carr, then hired the candidate whose answer he liked best, whose decision was it really? That is my concern.

AsylumGuido · 02-16-2025, 02:24 PM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

If Loomis asked all the candidates what we should do with Carr, then hired the candidate whose answer he liked best, whose decision was it really? That is my concern.

If you actually believe that Loomis had the total control over the decision on who to hire this time around and that he would base that decision upon who agreed with him about Carr one way or the other, then you are so tainted by your personal hatred of Loomis that you cannot see reality. Just sayin'.

BakoSaint · 02-16-2025, 03:00 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

If you actually believe that Loomis had the total control over the decision on who to hire this time around and that he would base that decision upon who agreed with him about Carr one way or the other, then you are so tainted by your personal hatred of Loomis that you cannot see reality. Just sayin'.

Thats why I said 'if' and 'concern.' I hope others were involved in the decision, such as Gayle, and I hope we decided on the person, not the persons plan 'aligning' with Loomis's plan. We were not in the room, so we can't know. I think some things Loomis said in his press conferences regarding 'aligned vision' and 'being on the same page' are enough to illicit some degree of reasonable concern that they could conflict with his other statements regarding that coach being able to make roster decisions. But I hope Moore is able to be truly independent. Its also possible that Loomis would have preferred a candidate who shared all his plans, but none of the top candidates did, and Loomis had to accept a candidate with a different vision because hiring a third tier candidate would have damaged his reputation. Its also possible that Loomis would have been truly convinced by a different vision, that they shared the same vision by pure chance, or that Loomis is willing to defer to a coach with a different vision. We just dont know.

Rugby Saint II · 02-16-2025, 03:06 PM

I always liked Carr and thought he was a good QB in a crappy system. He is average and expensive. I'd like to cut him and run with Rattler for a season. If he does grow that's great. If not, we draft higher next year.

I can put up with a rebuilding year. What I can't do is watch us draft players again with high RAS scores and potential that need development.

SmashMouth · 02-16-2025, 06:20 PM

Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II

I always liked Carr and thought he was a good QB in a crappy system. He is average and expensive. I'd like to cut him and run with Rattler for a season. If he does grow that's great. If not, we draft higher next year.

I can put up with a rebuilding year. What I can't do is watch us draft players again with high RAS scores and potential that need development.

That brings to mind... should we use the RAS score system for the Saints fans of today?

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

Some thoughts on Moore's statement that "Derek Carr is a starting QB in this league..."

If and hopefully when we cut Carr, we want him to be starting QB for another team, because he has a guaranteed roster bonus of $10 million for 2025 that is subject to offset, meaning that every dollar another team pays him, up to $10 million, further reduces the Saints dead cap from cutting him. Russell Wilson agreed to play for the Steelers for a vet minimum $1 million but Wilson had a guaranteed salary of about $40 million, so he had no reason to try to get $10 or $20 million in free agency, because unless he exceeded $40 million on his new contract, all the extra money was going to the Broncos via offset not to Wilson's pocket. For Carr its different, as long as he gets more than $10 million, every extra dollar after $10 million that Carr could get in free agency would go to his pocket. I believe that on the free agent market Carr would get $20-25 million per year now, reduced from his current salary because he is older and more banged up and there is a flood of older QBs like Rodgers, Wilson, and Cousins on the market, but still more than $10 million. So Carr could turn down a $25 million offer and sign for $1 million to spite the Saints out of $9 million of offset money, but then he would be costing himself $15 million too.

The reason its key for the Saints that Carr is a 'a starter in this league' is that Carr has to earn more than $10 million for the Saints to get any offset. If Carr decides to say, go to the Eagles or Chiefs as a backup not a starter, hoping to win a ring and possible have a chance at glory if their starter goes down, he is not going to sign for $5 million or $8 million or $10 million, he is going to sign for $1 million, because he does not get to keep the extra money unless the contract exceeds $10 million, and it would only exceed $10 million if he is brought in as a starter.

If the Saints cut Carr and he retires, the Saints save $0 of the $10 million. If the Saints cut Carr and he decides to sign as a backup for a contender, the Saints save $1 million of the $10 million. If the Saints cut Carr and he is signed elsewhere as a starter in the league, the Saints save all $10 million of that $10 million.

The other angle of this is that Carr's contract is guaranteed for injury and he has a mild wrist injury. If Carr is not healthy in March when decision time comes, the Saints theoretically can't cut him (though I guess they could challenge doctor vs doctor and go to arbitration and lawsuits or injury settlement). If the Saints cant cut Carr they owe him $40 million. And if the Saints announce they intend to cut Carr, Carr could always say 'oh my wrist feels a little awkward, hmmm its not quite right' and slow ball his recovery for that $40 million payday.

Thats the other key part about saying Carr is "a starter in this league" but not committing to start him on this team. If Carr plays hardball and forces the Saints to keep him and pay him $40 million instead of the $25 million or so I believe he would get as a free agent, the Saints can play hardball too. By the way, you tell me what team is offering $40 million for Carr, I won't buy it, the Raiders dont want him back and Jets decided to reset and get younger, and younger ain't 34, meanwhile the Steelers had Russ for $1 million this year and ain't bidding against themselves to pay Carr $40 million). Anyway if Carr plays hardball, the Saints version of hardball would be "you are starting QB in this league, but not for our offense and situation, so if you play hardball with us, you sit on the bench and gather rust, and sure you will get your $40 million, but what will be the market for you at 35yo with a year of rust?" If Carr plays hardball the Saints should not just play along and start him, they should bench him as their own hardball, and in benching him force him to agree to a pay cut, waive his no trade clause, accept an injury settlement, or eat that year of rust. Another form of hardball the Saints could play is that if Carr forces the Saints to keep him and won't agree to a trade where another team could eat perhaps $25 million of Carr's $40 million salary, the Saints could play hardball with Carr in 2026 where they have the leverage. If the Saints create enough cap space they could wait until April or May instead of March to cut Carr in 2026, when all the good teams have already made their QB decisions, and Carr is unlikely to get a good starting gig or good salary for 2026.

Ultimately my hope is that 'Carr is a starting QB in this league' means 'Hey Carr, if you want to remain a starting QB in this league its going to be on another team, so please don't play games with the wrist injury and don't play games with minimum salary backup gigs with other teams. Take your cut like a man and go sign with Pittsburgh for $25 million or whatever, and consider it a win win. If you want to play it the other way and force your $40 million payday with the Saints over the wrist, you will be our 3rd string QB and won't touch grass. Maybe we will explore a trade if another team is willing to eat some of your salary, but if that doesnt work out, you will regret not just accepting the cut, because we will hold your rights until May 2026 after the draft, then kick you to the curb as a 35yo QB with a year of rust after all the other teams have spent their free agent money and found their QB, and you will never be a starting QB for a decent team or decent money for the rest of your career, and it will be your fault.'

Every metric we can come up with points to moving on from Carr as soon as possible for the sake of the best cap implications.

iceshack149 · 02-17-2025, 01:25 PM

Originally Posted by SmashMouth

That brings to mind... should we use the RAS score system for the Saints fans of today?

K Major · 02-17-2025, 02:10 PM

Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II

I can put up with a rebuilding year. What I can't do is watch us draft players again with high RAS scores and potential that need development.

Plural. Years.

It’s going to take a while to clean up this mess that has happened over the last 4-5 years with Loomis.

Restructures, cuts, new scheme, culture etc.

Saints MUST rebuild this team through the draft. That is the only way you are going to become competitive at this level & not just winning 8 or 9 games & drawing up some mathematical equation to ensure a playoff (4 years and counting) spot.

I hope Kellen Moore is up to the task. It’s going to be a difficult road ahead.

02-16-2025, 12:42 PM	#31
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,605	Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum I guess on way to look at it is, if we are rebuilding and going to have to absorb Carr's cap hit anyway, why not retain him? If you (not you personally, Bako) think Carr sucks so badly why not let him contribute to our crappy season for a better pick in 2026? Or are y'all afraid that he'll contribute to too many wins? Danno likes this.

02-16-2025, 01:30 PM	#32
neugey Hu Dat! Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 6,850 Blog Entries: 13	Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum The decision to keep or cut should be darn near 100% up to Moore. That was the point of hiring him. jnormand, Rugby Saint II, stickman and 1 others like this.

02-16-2025, 02:04 PM	#33
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,379	Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum Originally Posted by AsylumGuido I guess on way to look at it is, if we are rebuilding and going to have to absorb Carr's cap hit anyway, why not retain him? If you (not you personally, Bako) think Carr sucks so badly why not let him contribute to our crappy season for a better pick in 2026? Or are y'all afraid that he'll contribute to too many wins? I would agree if it was free to keep Carr, but its a falsehood being promoted by dishonest or uninformed members of the media that it is somehow free or actually saves money to keep Carr. The 2025 minimum payments of keeping or cutting Carr are essentially the same (if Carr doesn't sign elsewhere for $10m+), but the total balance owed against future salary caps increases by $30-40 million if we keep Carr. Most likely we would save $40 million long term by cutting Carr because he would sign with another team that would pay him over $10 million, likely $20-25 million I think, and his $10 million guaranteed roster bonus is subject to offset. The basic thing to understand is that whenever you write a player a new check, you have more money charged against your salary cap, but there are ways to delay some of that money for up to 5 years, but its going to be charged eventually once you write the check. If we keep Carr this year, we have to write him $40 million in new checks. Here is an approximate breakdown, assuming Carr would sign for over $10 million elsewhere if cut and trigger the offset. Keep Carr: $51 million cap charge for 2025, $29 million in prorated money against the cap in 2026 and beyond, which is due even if Carr is cut in 2026. Plus another $50 million against the cap 2026 and beyond if he is retained to 'play out his contract.' Restructure Carr: $20 million cap charge for 2025, $61 million in protated money against the cap in 2026 and beyond, which it due even if Carr is cut in 2026. Plus another $50 million against the cap 2026 and beyond if he is retained to 'play out his contract.' Cut Carr as an ordinary pre-June-1 cut. $40 million cap charge for 2025. Zero obligations against the cap for Carr in 2026 and beyond. Cut Carr with a post-June-1 cut tag. $11 million cap charge for 2025 and $29 million cap charge for 2026. As you can see, when you consider the cap beyond 2025 year, it saves the Saints $30 million salary that nobody pays and $10 million roster bonus that another team offsets if they cut Carr now. If they wait until 2026 they pay that money and that $40 million has to hit against future caps. If they keep him in 2026 they owe another $50 million which can be restructured and spread out but will hit the cap eventually. If the the Saints restructured everything in 2025 and 2026 and just let Carr play out his contract, they would face $81 million in dead cap in 2027. They currently owe Carr $17 million dead money in 2027 with the contract as is. Restructuring his $40 million in 2025 would spread it out to $8 million a year over 5 years, so $24 million more for dead money in 2027 since $16 million would be paid in the first 2 years, and then another $40 million dead money from a 2026 restructure, where $50 million is spread out to $10m/yr for 5 years, putting money out to 2030. But all that 2027-2030 money hits at once in 2027 if his contract voids, so $81 million dead cap in 2027. As you can see, the problem doesnt get better if we wait, it gets worse. $40 million dead cap now is chump change.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,379

02-16-2025, 02:10 PM	#34
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,379	Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum Originally Posted by neugey The decision to keep or cut should be darn near 100% up to Moore. That was the point of hiring him. If Loomis asked all the candidates what we should do with Carr, then hired the candidate whose answer he liked best, whose decision was it really? That is my concern. SmashMouth likes this.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,379

02-16-2025, 02:24 PM	#35
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,605	Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum Originally Posted by BakoSaint If Loomis asked all the candidates what we should do with Carr, then hired the candidate whose answer he liked best, whose decision was it really? That is my concern. If you actually believe that Loomis had the total control over the decision on who to hire this time around and that he would base that decision upon who agreed with him about Carr one way or the other, then you are so tainted by your personal hatred of Loomis that you cannot see reality. Just sayin'.

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02-16-2025, 03:00 PM	#36
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,379	Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum Originally Posted by AsylumGuido If you actually believe that Loomis had the total control over the decision on who to hire this time around and that he would base that decision upon who agreed with him about Carr one way or the other, then you are so tainted by your personal hatred of Loomis that you cannot see reality. Just sayin'. Thats why I said 'if' and 'concern.' I hope others were involved in the decision, such as Gayle, and I hope we decided on the person, not the persons plan 'aligning' with Loomis's plan. We were not in the room, so we can't know. I think some things Loomis said in his press conferences regarding 'aligned vision' and 'being on the same page' are enough to illicit some degree of reasonable concern that they could conflict with his other statements regarding that coach being able to make roster decisions. But I hope Moore is able to be truly independent. Its also possible that Loomis would have preferred a candidate who shared all his plans, but none of the top candidates did, and Loomis had to accept a candidate with a different vision because hiring a third tier candidate would have damaged his reputation. Its also possible that Loomis would have been truly convinced by a different vision, that they shared the same vision by pure chance, or that Loomis is willing to defer to a coach with a different vision. We just dont know.
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02-16-2025, 03:06 PM	#37
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,143	Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum I always liked Carr and thought he was a good QB in a crappy system. He is average and expensive. I'd like to cut him and run with Rattler for a season. If he does grow that's great. If not, we draft higher next year. I can put up with a rebuilding year. What I can't do is watch us draft players again with high RAS scores and potential that need development. jnormand, SmashMouth and BakoSaint like this.

02-16-2025, 06:20 PM	#38
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,689 Blog Entries: 29	Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II I always liked Carr and thought he was a good QB in a crappy system. He is average and expensive. I'd like to cut him and run with Rattler for a season. If he does grow that's great. If not, we draft higher next year. I can put up with a rebuilding year. What I can't do is watch us draft players again with high RAS scores and potential that need development. That brings to mind... should we use the RAS score system for the Saints fans of today? Originally Posted by BakoSaint Some thoughts on Moore's statement that "Derek Carr is a starting QB in this league..." If and hopefully when we cut Carr, we want him to be starting QB for another team, because he has a guaranteed roster bonus of $10 million for 2025 that is subject to offset, meaning that every dollar another team pays him, up to $10 million, further reduces the Saints dead cap from cutting him. Russell Wilson agreed to play for the Steelers for a vet minimum $1 million but Wilson had a guaranteed salary of about $40 million, so he had no reason to try to get $10 or $20 million in free agency, because unless he exceeded $40 million on his new contract, all the extra money was going to the Broncos via offset not to Wilson's pocket. For Carr its different, as long as he gets more than $10 million, every extra dollar after $10 million that Carr could get in free agency would go to his pocket. I believe that on the free agent market Carr would get $20-25 million per year now, reduced from his current salary because he is older and more banged up and there is a flood of older QBs like Rodgers, Wilson, and Cousins on the market, but still more than $10 million. So Carr could turn down a $25 million offer and sign for $1 million to spite the Saints out of $9 million of offset money, but then he would be costing himself $15 million too. The reason its key for the Saints that Carr is a 'a starter in this league' is that Carr has to earn more than $10 million for the Saints to get any offset. If Carr decides to say, go to the Eagles or Chiefs as a backup not a starter, hoping to win a ring and possible have a chance at glory if their starter goes down, he is not going to sign for $5 million or $8 million or $10 million, he is going to sign for $1 million, because he does not get to keep the extra money unless the contract exceeds $10 million, and it would only exceed $10 million if he is brought in as a starter. If the Saints cut Carr and he retires, the Saints save $0 of the $10 million. If the Saints cut Carr and he decides to sign as a backup for a contender, the Saints save $1 million of the $10 million. If the Saints cut Carr and he is signed elsewhere as a starter in the league, the Saints save all $10 million of that $10 million. The other angle of this is that Carr's contract is guaranteed for injury and he has a mild wrist injury. If Carr is not healthy in March when decision time comes, the Saints theoretically can't cut him (though I guess they could challenge doctor vs doctor and go to arbitration and lawsuits or injury settlement). If the Saints cant cut Carr they owe him $40 million. And if the Saints announce they intend to cut Carr, Carr could always say 'oh my wrist feels a little awkward, hmmm its not quite right' and slow ball his recovery for that $40 million payday. Thats the other key part about saying Carr is "a starter in this league" but not committing to start him on this team. If Carr plays hardball and forces the Saints to keep him and pay him $40 million instead of the $25 million or so I believe he would get as a free agent, the Saints can play hardball too. By the way, you tell me what team is offering $40 million for Carr, I won't buy it, the Raiders dont want him back and Jets decided to reset and get younger, and younger ain't 34, meanwhile the Steelers had Russ for $1 million this year and ain't bidding against themselves to pay Carr $40 million). Anyway if Carr plays hardball, the Saints version of hardball would be "you are starting QB in this league, but not for our offense and situation, so if you play hardball with us, you sit on the bench and gather rust, and sure you will get your $40 million, but what will be the market for you at 35yo with a year of rust?" If Carr plays hardball the Saints should not just play along and start him, they should bench him as their own hardball, and in benching him force him to agree to a pay cut, waive his no trade clause, accept an injury settlement, or eat that year of rust. Another form of hardball the Saints could play is that if Carr forces the Saints to keep him and won't agree to a trade where another team could eat perhaps $25 million of Carr's $40 million salary, the Saints could play hardball with Carr in 2026 where they have the leverage. If the Saints create enough cap space they could wait until April or May instead of March to cut Carr in 2026, when all the good teams have already made their QB decisions, and Carr is unlikely to get a good starting gig or good salary for 2026. Ultimately my hope is that 'Carr is a starting QB in this league' means 'Hey Carr, if you want to remain a starting QB in this league its going to be on another team, so please don't play games with the wrist injury and don't play games with minimum salary backup gigs with other teams. Take your cut like a man and go sign with Pittsburgh for $25 million or whatever, and consider it a win win. If you want to play it the other way and force your $40 million payday with the Saints over the wrist, you will be our 3rd string QB and won't touch grass. Maybe we will explore a trade if another team is willing to eat some of your salary, but if that doesnt work out, you will regret not just accepting the cut, because we will hold your rights until May 2026 after the draft, then kick you to the curb as a 35yo QB with a year of rust after all the other teams have spent their free agent money and found their QB, and you will never be a starting QB for a decent team or decent money for the rest of your career, and it will be your fault.' Every metric we can come up with points to moving on from Carr as soon as possible for the sake of the best cap implications. iceshack149 and Rugby Saint II like this.

02-17-2025, 01:25 PM	#39
iceshack149 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Fairbanks, AK Posts: 4,391 Blog Entries: 1	Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum Originally Posted by SmashMouth That brings to mind... should we use the RAS score system for the Saints fans of today? SmashMouth likes this.

02-17-2025, 02:10 PM	#40
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,822 Blog Entries: 3	Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II I can put up with a rebuilding year. What I can't do is watch us draft players again with high RAS scores and potential that need development. Plural. Years. It’s going to take a while to clean up this mess that has happened over the last 4-5 years with Loomis. Restructures, cuts, new scheme, culture etc. Saints MUST rebuild this team through the draft. That is the only way you are going to become competitive at this level & not just winning 8 or 9 games & drawing up some mathematical equation to ensure a playoff (4 years and counting) spot. I hope Kellen Moore is up to the task. It’s going to be a difficult road ahead. jnormand and Rugby Saint II like this.