The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

People who say the Saints cannot cut Derek Carr because it would trigger a $50 million dead cap hit are wrong. It would trigger that dead cap hit but it can be done.

Keeping Derek Carr and not restructuring his contract would also trigger a $51.5 million cap hit, so a standard cut actually saves $1.5 million on the cap. And designating Carr a Post-June-1 cut could actually save $30 million, very similar to the $31 million saved with a restructure.

The Saints are projected to be $63.8 million over the 2025 salary cap and restructuring Carr with no true pay cut, ie converting his $30 million base salary and $10 million roster bonus to restructuring bonuses, could save $31 million, but this is NOT the only way for the Saints to get under the cap.

The Saints can save $70 million on the cap while not touching the contracts of Carr, Jordan, and Hill by designating Ram a Post-June-1 cut, cutting Jamaal Williams, and restructuring LITERALLY EVERYONE ELSE whose contract can be restructured to save $0.5 million or more (ie we would not restructure players like Hayball and Tipton whose restructure potential is pennies).

The Saints also have even more potential to get under the cap without restructuring Carr if certain other players voluntarily cooperate in creative contract arrangements. For example if Jordan, Ram, Davis, Mathieu, Olave, Hill, or others decided to retire and get on the Saints good side for post-career opportunities, they could restructure their contracts in March to change their base salary to $1 million with no guaranteed bonus attached, then they could wait until June 1 to officially retire or be cut. This would give the most favorable cap benefit possible, reducing the 2025 cap hit even more than a restructure or post-June-1 designation, for various salary cap rule reasons that would be a longer discussion. Basically by reducing their salary there would immediately be cap savings just like a restructure and unlike a post-June-1 designation. But by retiring or agreeing to a cut in June, there would be no dead cap hit against the 2025 cap in June, it would all hit the 2026 cap, and there would be an additional $1 million cap savings in June removing their minimum base salary.

Then if the Saints did use their other post-June-1 cut tag on Carr, they could actually save $30 million off the 2025 cap, but they dont have to do that, they may just have to threaten it.

Derek Carr is set to earn $40 million in 2025 with $50 million due in 2026. Rose colored glasses homer fans may consider this a bargain but realistically it is not. While it may be a bargain on paper for Carr's regular season statistics and some nothing that Carr may be the 15th-20th best QB earning the 15-20th best salary, there are a few red flags that would cause any other team to hesitate to offer Derek Carr $40-50 million per year. Derek Carr will be going into his 12th season as a starting QB in 2025 and will be 34 years old, entering an age window when many QBs historically began to decline rapidly with the exception of a few recent anomalies. More troubling, Carr has never won a playoff game, and had a QB rating under 70 in his only playoff appearance, so a team acquiring Carr at 34yo would not neccessarily win the transaction if he had a great regular season, because he would essentially be the 40yo virgin in the playoffs, potentially competing against 20-something with multiple playoff wins under their belts. Finally, Carr has had 3 concussions and 4 significant injuries in the past 2 years, and even if he toughed it out in the past, he is getting to be an age where he misses games when he gets hurt now. So essentially Carr has red flags on concussions, other injuries, lack of playoff experience, consistency, and losing, but at times has great regular season stats. After failing with 2 teams, he would be seen as a sort of Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Kirk Cousins, Drew Bledsoe, Andy Dalton, etc type reclamation project, but with much less playoff experience at age 34 than most of them. Russel Wilson could be seen as the upside, but Russell Wilson came with massive playoff experience for league minimum salary. The market for Derek Carr if he was a free agent or available in trade might be very limited.

Looking at Derek Carr's 2025 compensation, he has a $10 million roster bonus that is guaranteed, but a $30 million base salary that does not become guaranteed until March (if he cannot pass a physical in March we are screwed, but at this time his injuries dont look that serious). And for 2026 he has a $50 million base salary that you can argue is a fake number and place filler, but actually does matter in extreme upside and downside scenarios. For example if Carr were to play in 2025 and was great and won playoff games, his $50 million base salary for 2026 would become a starting place for negotiations with his agent talking in terms of 'new money' beyond that, and him potentially having to play for that number in 2026 after a holdout if no terms could be agreed, since he could hardly risk sitting out his age 35 season with the recent record of rusty older QBs like Watson and Rodgers. Meanwhile, in the opposite extreme if Carr played in 2025 and was mediorce, then sustained a horrific concussion or multiple ligament tear that prevented him from passing a physical by the start of the 2026 season, he could collect that $50 million base salary by default. In either case it is better for the Saints if Carr's $50 million 2026 base salary was lower, but not more guaranteed. It could also be useful for the Saints if Carr had some 2027 and beyond years on the books at reasonable salaries to protect them in case he succeeds.

Since Carr's 2025 $10 million roster bonus is already guaranteed, its a sunk cost. So the question is, if Carr was a free agent this offseason, could he do better than a $30 million guaranteed salary for 2025 and a $50 million base salary for 2026 that was not guaranteed, but could become so in the event of a severe injury? I am not sure what team would offer Carr that? Darnold may be available. Wilson may be available. Kirk Cousins may be available and the Falcons may be persuaded to pay some of his salary. Jameis Winston could be an option for some teams. Aaron Rodgers could be available. There will be QBs in the draft. Some young backups have looked good like Malik Willis and Justin Fields. Some teams could think Daniel Jones deserves a 2nd chance based on his playoff win and youth more than Carr deserves a 3rd chance based on his better regular season stats. Why break the bank for a 34yo journeyman on his 3rd team who has never won or even played well in a playoff game and has 3 concussions in the past 2 years and could be one big hit from retirement? I don't think any team would offer Carr a 2 year $80 million contract with $30 million guaranteed even if he might seem worth it on paper from regular season stats. I think he might be the odd man out considering he has more recent concussions and less playoff wins than many of the other journeyman options.

So Carr is not worth $30 million what is he worth? Maybe some team might offer him $25 million but its likely to compete or be caretaker for a young QB on a bad team with little future guarantees, much like his situation with the Saints, and he has to move, and he further reinforces his reputation as a journeyman. And I am not sure that any team would even offer that. $20 million I think it is very likely someone would offer, though no guarantees.

So if we don't straight up designate Carr a post-June-1 cut, I think it would be financially irresponsible not to pressure him to take a true pay cut. For example, what that could look like is converting his $10 million roster bonus and $30 million base salary into a $29 million restructuring bonus and $1 million base salary for a net pay cut of $10 million, reducing his 2026 base salary to $30 million plus performance bonuses with no guarantees, and adding a 2027 base salary of $30 million plus performance bonuses with no guarantees. This would protect the Saints better both if he continues to struggle or gets injured more and they need to move on, or in the unlikely scenario he finally gets his break and wins in the playoffs and they need to extend him. For Carr, it would offer the opportunity to not be cut, not risk an even lower offer or humiliation of no offers, and not cement his reputation as a journeyman bouncing between teams.

It still might make more sense to me to straight up move on with the post-June-1 cut, but I think talking Carr into a true pay cut is a good plan 1b. If Carr took such a pay cut, it would help the Saints get under the cap even better than a regular restructure, and that would free up money and an extra Post-June-1 cut designation to do the right thing with other players. The Saints could use the same money that would have been used to move on from Carr, and move on from other washed vets, perhaps rebuilding even more efficiently. Then they could revisit Carr from a better position the following offseason with more flexibility. Carr is not the worst player on the Saints team who it is most urgent to cut, but he is also not worth his current contract or the Saints best player. A compromise could be reasonable.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

50 MILLION --- just let that sink in. :rolleyes: :beatnik:

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

:awe:

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Oh it’s sinking…

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Derek Carr is set to earn the same salary as Aaron Judge in 2025 and the same salary as LeBron James in 2026. What a bargain considering all of Carrs MVP awards and championship rings and all the times he led the league in any categories. Not to mention all the incredible upside historically from QBs who didn't win a single playoff game before age 34 going to on to win lots.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profoo...y-cut-for-2025

Apparently Derek Carr has preemptively refused to take a pay cut. Apparently in his delusional mind he is worth the same salary as Aaron Judge in 2025 and LeBron James in 2026, and his family could not survive on only $25-30 million a year so if its not $40-50 million he will take nothing. He is ever so generously willing to restructure, which will would kick the can down the road and make him more expensive to cut in 2026, likely garnering him $50 million then too, and which is especially generous considering the ability to restructure is typically written in to NFL contracts, results in him getting the same money earlier with more protection, and likely does not require his permission.

I think the Saints should cut Carr no matter what it takes. We can restructure many others, have no additions, and make room to take the cap hit. It is impossible to win in the NFL with a mediocre player refusing to play for anything less than elite money as the leader of the team, putting his bank account before accountability. It is also spitting in the face of all the higher performing veterans on the team who did agree to take pay cuts in the past like Davis, Mathieu, Ram, and Kamara.

The fact is that there is no precedent for a QB who hasn't won a single playoff game by the age of 34 going on to win a ring. Sometimes Carr can be an average NFL QB in the regular season, maybe sometimes even slightly above average, his best games typically coming against the worst teams like the Panthers and Cowboys this year, but even if we had the team to bring him to the playoffs, which we clearly don't, all he would be in the playoffs is basically the 40 year old virgin. We are better off going to the playoffs with a young inexperienced QB who doesn't have the 500lb Gorilla on their back of the ghosts of past failure. And in the long run it would save the team a lot of money to move on from Carr now and stop kicking the can on the salary cap.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

I don't know why, but I am a little surprised by this. Not only did he NOT put up league leading numbers, his biggest fan got fired a few weeks back. I know he said he would restructure, but I am inclined at this point to agree with Bako. Cut him and move on.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

I'm in the minority for sure but I think Derek Carr is fine at Quarterback. He's average. There aren't many, if any, options for a better QB right now. It's unfortunate but having an average Quarterback is expensive.
The Saints need to address a lot of different positions before thinking about getting rid of Carr and the cost of doing so.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Well, Carr didn't "adjust" his contract for the team that drafted him, so why would he do it in N.O.?

It's just crazy to me that Gayle and Loomis essentially gave him 100M guaranteed after coming off a bad year on a contract that paid him only 25M (guaranteed).

Everyone can say that the deal was average, but an average deal can still be an overpay if no one else is out there bidding.

This philosophy of kicking the can down the road has gotten the Saints where they are right now and it's embarassing. It's time for the executives to get this team in sound fiscal shape so that they can acquire YOUNG talent.

Gum smacking Loomis needs to figure this out. Better yet, step aside.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

That's the point isn't it? If a QB is going to be average why pay the man top dollar?

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

'Average deal'...

Did not perform at the level of an average NFL QB.
Barely played 1/2 the games.

His value is 1/4 of his pay somewhere else. :bng:

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Seems like Denver survived such a hideous hit just fine. But I digress.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Why would he agree to a pay cut?
He has the team by the balls and if they cut him he gets paid and signs on elsewhere, if he stays he gets paid. I don't blame him, i blame Loomis and Allen for giving him the deal in the first place

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Only $10 million of his $40 million is fully guaranteed. The Saints will take a massive cap hit to cut him but if they are willing to take that cap hit, which essentially amounts to going full rebuild for 2025, he is out $30 million. Plus even the $10 million has offset language, so if some sucker team is willing to give him $20 million, we save $10 million more and he is out $20 million. If he signs a vet minimum $1 million deal to screw us on the offset then he is out $31 million. And if he signs that $1 million deal and gets hurt or plays poorly he is done making money. So probably if we cut him he either retires and loses $30 million, risks it all on a 2025 vet minimum deal and loses $31 million with high risk for the future, or he has to settle for something like a 2 year $50 million deal with $20 million guaranteed, loses $20 million this year and $20 million next, and we save $40 million long term even if the immediate cap hit is bad, and we have maybe the best cap in the league in 2027. Its all a matter of being willing to cut him. If we are, we have the leverage, and Carr may be dancing with the stars in 2025 or 2026 or doing survivor island or the bachelor or whatever.

Also there is no way Carr's hand should still be injured in March. If it is, the team should attempt to void his contract and argue the hand recovery was stopped by Carr's own extracurricular activities off the field

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

It easier to pay your way out of a bad Carr lease when your credit cards are not maxxed out and your bank account isn't empty. Denver had the spare cap space to take the hit and still have money to spend. We can take the cap hit, but all the free agents we sign will also have to be rookies, which is ok with me. Goodbye Tee Higgins, hello Hee Tiggins out of Northwest Dakota Tech. I am ok with it for a year.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Agree with this. That's one of the reasons I don't mind a first time head coach. He learns while the team works its way out of cap purgatory. I just hope whoever gets hired gets a fair chance and isn't scapegoated for a bad season next year.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Sometimes 75% of what you want is not worth 75% of what you want would cost. If gas is $3 a gallon and the only gas station you can reach on what you have left in the tank is selling a mixture of 75% gas and 25% water for $2.25 a gallon would you fill your tank or wait it out? If you are short on cash for a movie ticket would you offer the theatre almost enough money and agree to miss the ending? If you worked for a corrupt contractor in eastern europe, would you bribe a corrupt manager controlling a contract you are bidding on the 3rd most money in order to come in 3rd place for awarding the contract? If you needed to get from Chicago to your best friends wedding in New York, but only had enough gas money to get to Cleveland, would you go hang out in Cleveland for the weekend and send your best friend photos from a Browns game? If your friend paid $100,000 for a night with a 10 victoria secret model, would you pay $60,000 for a night with a 6 from a metamucil ad? If you ran a NASCAR team but your car was totalled and you did not have the cash to replace it in time for the race, would you spend everything you had to get a stock Camry for the race, or skip that race and save up for a Car that could win.

While it costs money in the short term to get rid of Carr it saves money in the long term. Keeping Carr is the true cost, and he costs more to keep than anyone else. He is not worth it. He is watery gas, a ticket to half a movie, a weekend in cleveland, a night with a metamucil model, a stock camry in NASCAR.

The fact is that if you really want to get to that wedding in New York but you only have the cash to get half way there, getting half way there is not a real option that makes any sense. There are two real options. Skip it and save cash for the next thing you want to do, or go to the casino and put it all on black and you have a 50% chance to get all the way there instead of a 100% chance to get half the way there. That is more of what the 15th highest paid QB is supposed to be, a young up and coming QB or a highly proven QB recovering from injury who could be worthless, but could be great, and you take the gamble. It doesnt make sense to pay #15 money for a #15 QB, with a known commodity, when you are in range of winning it all with the #15 QB and our roster. High risk high reward would make more sense for us, and for most teams. Drew Brees was high risk high reward when we signed him from the Chargers. Maybe his shoulder was done, maybe he was mid, but maybe we get a young QB with more than a decade ahead of him. Carr is a known commodity. There are over 10 years of 'average'. We know what we get, though we may get less as he ages. And where that gets us is nowhere. We are better off to gamble. Rattler could be much worse than Carr, but he is a good gamble, because he could also be similar, with unknown upside, and cost a lot less. Maybe in 2025 some much younger QB like Hebert or Purdy will have an off year and a falling out with the coach, and then they are young and have upside like Brees was. Carr is known mediocrity. Why would a team that needs A LOT of improvement to truly contend hedge its bets on known mediocrity of a player in the latter years of their career with little upside?

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

After Carr's recent comments my view has changed. Just the fact that he made the statement publicly shows he isn't the type of leader he claims to be.

CUT HIM.

Then find a head coach who's aligned with your plan.

Then cut or trade every over-the-hill or over-priced player.

Field a team of rookies, UDFAs and Canadian League players for all I care.

Get the #1 pick in 2026. Draft Arch Manning and rebuild this franchise from the ground up in 2-3 years.

I'd respect that a hell of a lot more than whatever it is you call it today.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

If anyone is scared of this approach, Sean Payton just executed it himself.

The Tampa Bay Bucs just executed it AFTER winning a Superbowl.

The Texans. The Bengals. They're not better franchises in terms of ownership or money.

If Mickey can't execute a plan then find someone who will.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

A culture change is necessary.

Every year (at least the last 3), the Saints lead the league in injuries, an OLD roster & cap restrictions.

The only change was firing LD Bell (Dennis Allen) the head coach. A decision that apparently Mickey Loomis didn’t agree with :rolleyes:. I mean the man was trying to sign Desean Watson a couple of seasons ago.

The Saints desperately need a fresh perspective on football decisions.

A complete rebuild is required and gonna take some time.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

I appreciate your thoughtful replies. Most of us just dump a few sentences in our replies.
I'm warming up to what you, saintsfan1976, and K Major are saying. It would make watching football next year absolutely suck (just like this year!) but worth it if the Saints are smart enough to get the best building blocks for the future.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Basically my point in the last few years... if the franchise is going to be average or below average, there's no point in overpaying for a QB. The same result can be had with a less cap strangling QB, even a rookie, and even a later round QB. Plenty of examples we've seen. Thank God we didn't win the Watson sweepstakes. What an even worse disaster that would have been.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

I have this thought often. And if we feel lucky, imagine how they feel in Houston.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Super lucky.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/...fb3999ecd07894

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Some thoughts on Moore's statement that "Derek Carr is a starting QB in this league..."

If and hopefully when we cut Carr, we want him to be starting QB for another team, because he has a guaranteed roster bonus of $10 million for 2025 that is subject to offset, meaning that every dollar another team pays him, up to $10 million, further reduces the Saints dead cap from cutting him. Russell Wilson agreed to play for the Steelers for a vet minimum $1 million but Wilson had a guaranteed salary of about $40 million, so he had no reason to try to get $10 or $20 million in free agency, because unless he exceeded $40 million on his new contract, all the extra money was going to the Broncos via offset not to Wilson's pocket. For Carr its different, as long as he gets more than $10 million, every extra dollar after $10 million that Carr could get in free agency would go to his pocket. I believe that on the free agent market Carr would get $20-25 million per year now, reduced from his current salary because he is older and more banged up and there is a flood of older QBs like Rodgers, Wilson, and Cousins on the market, but still more than $10 million. So Carr could turn down a $25 million offer and sign for $1 million to spite the Saints out of $9 million of offset money, but then he would be costing himself $15 million too.

The reason its key for the Saints that Carr is a 'a starter in this league' is that Carr has to earn more than $10 million for the Saints to get any offset. If Carr decides to say, go to the Eagles or Chiefs as a backup not a starter, hoping to win a ring and possible have a chance at glory if their starter goes down, he is not going to sign for $5 million or $8 million or $10 million, he is going to sign for $1 million, because he does not get to keep the extra money unless the contract exceeds $10 million, and it would only exceed $10 million if he is brought in as a starter.

If the Saints cut Carr and he retires, the Saints save $0 of the $10 million. If the Saints cut Carr and he decides to sign as a backup for a contender, the Saints save $1 million of the $10 million. If the Saints cut Carr and he is signed elsewhere as a starter in the league, the Saints save all $10 million of that $10 million.

The other angle of this is that Carr's contract is guaranteed for injury and he has a mild wrist injury. If Carr is not healthy in March when decision time comes, the Saints theoretically can't cut him (though I guess they could challenge doctor vs doctor and go to arbitration and lawsuits or injury settlement). If the Saints cant cut Carr they owe him $40 million. And if the Saints announce they intend to cut Carr, Carr could always say 'oh my wrist feels a little awkward, hmmm its not quite right' and slow ball his recovery for that $40 million payday.

Thats the other key part about saying Carr is "a starter in this league" but not committing to start him on this team. If Carr plays hardball and forces the Saints to keep him and pay him $40 million instead of the $25 million or so I believe he would get as a free agent, the Saints can play hardball too. By the way, you tell me what team is offering $40 million for Carr, I won't buy it, the Raiders dont want him back and Jets decided to reset and get younger, and younger ain't 34, meanwhile the Steelers had Russ for $1 million this year and ain't bidding against themselves to pay Carr $40 million). Anyway if Carr plays hardball, the Saints version of hardball would be "you are starting QB in this league, but not for our offense and situation, so if you play hardball with us, you sit on the bench and gather rust, and sure you will get your $40 million, but what will be the market for you at 35yo with a year of rust?" If Carr plays hardball the Saints should not just play along and start him, they should bench him as their own hardball, and in benching him force him to agree to a pay cut, waive his no trade clause, accept an injury settlement, or eat that year of rust. Another form of hardball the Saints could play is that if Carr forces the Saints to keep him and won't agree to a trade where another team could eat perhaps $25 million of Carr's $40 million salary, the Saints could play hardball with Carr in 2026 where they have the leverage. If the Saints create enough cap space they could wait until April or May instead of March to cut Carr in 2026, when all the good teams have already made their QB decisions, and Carr is unlikely to get a good starting gig or good salary for 2026.

Ultimately my hope is that 'Carr is a starting QB in this league' means 'Hey Carr, if you want to remain a starting QB in this league its going to be on another team, so please don't play games with the wrist injury and don't play games with minimum salary backup gigs with other teams. Take your cut like a man and go sign with Pittsburgh for $25 million or whatever, and consider it a win win. If you want to play it the other way and force your $40 million payday with the Saints over the wrist, you will be our 3rd string QB and won't touch grass. Maybe we will explore a trade if another team is willing to eat some of your salary, but if that doesnt work out, you will regret not just accepting the cut, because we will hold your rights until May 2026 after the draft, then kick you to the curb as a 35yo QB with a year of rust after all the other teams have spent their free agent money and found their QB, and you will never be a starting QB for a decent team or decent money for the rest of your career, and it will be your fault.'

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

It is important to consider that Carr's #11 QB ranking did benefit from playing in one of the weakest divisions in the league and missing 7 games in which the Saints faced 6 playoff teams with 10+ wins. Realistically he is middle of the road, 34yo, with the experience of zero playoff wins.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Yup. Middle of the road. I don't care whether we move on or not, but the chances of finding someone better are not good considering the vast number of QB's coming out of college never even prove to become starters at all and only a few that do even reach the rank of bottom half starters. That's what we need to prepare for with our expectations for the near future.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

But like, at the same time, Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, Burrow, and Jackson, who are clearly the top 5 QBs now, were all acquired via the draft, with 4 of 5 going in the first round. Of the next tier so were Daniels and Love, and honestly to me Goff is an aging system QB. Like Jordan or Gretzky or whoever said, you miss all the shots you dont take, and the top teams in the league have taken shots on QBs in the draft in early rounds. Carr is getting us half way to nowhere fast. So at some point we have to roll the dice on a Manning or Leaf, a Trubisky or Mahomes. The higher a QB is drafted, the better the odds are, by a little bit, although not necessarily a lot. Yet blockbuster trades where a team gives up 3 first round picks to move up for a QB have a bad history of setting up QBs to fail with high expectations and low resources. So moving on from Carr and accepting one year with a less certain option sets us up to take our shot in the first round if needed without having to make a blockbuster Ricky Williams 2.0 QB trade that is doomed to fail.

I will concede that the NFL is a league of trends and copycats, and the model of bringing in a veteran QB and winning it all had its day in the past. Currently, all the top QBs were drafted by their teams, but in the past there were success stories with Brees, Manning, Brady, and Stafford, while recent attempts with Rodgers, Wilson, Cousins, Watson, and Carr (a much lesser name) have failed. At the same time, these trends can be cyclic, and veteran QBs did not fair that well prior to Brees either, with failed or at least non-championship second acts from the likes of Bledsoe, Montana, Moon, Harbaugh, Everett, Archie Manning, and others, with the main successes being QBs who never really got a chance with their first teams like Favre and Young. I think the best thing is to not go too far with either model. Drafting a QB works best when you are trying to rebuild and get younger, and you have a high pick already where you can select a QB with your pick in the top 10-12 usually or take a shot on an overlooked QB in later rounds and dont need to mortgage the future to make a Rickey Williams 2.0 trade. A veteran QB can work if they are still very young and never had a chance to reach their peak, or if they are a veteran known commodity where you have the roster and salary cap to build around them and win without needing them to have a career year in their mid 30's. Bringing in a veteran QB has been successful too historically but may go out of fashion again because of recent misses. If that creates an opportunity in the future, fine, but only when we have the right roster and cap situation in place, and that QB is a bit more young or elite than Carr.

I really hope we don't keep Carr this year. But if we do, I hope it was a back room agreement between Moore, Loomis, and Gayle that amounted to 'ok Mickey, we disagree but we'll try it your way and give it a year, if it doesn't work we start trying things my way next year, ok Gayle?' In that case Carr would be gone in 2026 and take Loomis with him, or Loomis would become a figurehead with Moore or his confidants making the decisions. The challenge with this could be that rebuilding in year 2 would require giving Moore a long leash and might shake any coaches confidence.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

I guess on way to look at it is, if we are rebuilding and going to have to absorb Carr's cap hit anyway, why not retain him? If you (not you personally, Bako) think Carr sucks so badly why not let him contribute to our crappy season for a better pick in 2026? Or are y'all afraid that he'll contribute to too many wins?

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

The decision to keep or cut should be darn near 100% up to Moore. That was the point of hiring him.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

I would agree if it was free to keep Carr, but its a falsehood being promoted by dishonest or uninformed members of the media that it is somehow free or actually saves money to keep Carr. The 2025 minimum payments of keeping or cutting Carr are essentially the same (if Carr doesn't sign elsewhere for $10m+), but the total balance owed against future salary caps increases by $30-40 million if we keep Carr. Most likely we would save $40 million long term by cutting Carr because he would sign with another team that would pay him over $10 million, likely $20-25 million I think, and his $10 million guaranteed roster bonus is subject to offset.

The basic thing to understand is that whenever you write a player a new check, you have more money charged against your salary cap, but there are ways to delay some of that money for up to 5 years, but its going to be charged eventually once you write the check. If we keep Carr this year, we have to write him $40 million in new checks.

Here is an approximate breakdown, assuming Carr would sign for over $10 million elsewhere if cut and trigger the offset.

Keep Carr: $51 million cap charge for 2025, $29 million in prorated money against the cap in 2026 and beyond, which is due even if Carr is cut in 2026. Plus another $50 million against the cap 2026 and beyond if he is retained to 'play out his contract.'

Restructure Carr: $20 million cap charge for 2025, $61 million in protated money against the cap in 2026 and beyond, which it due even if Carr is cut in 2026. Plus another $50 million against the cap 2026 and beyond if he is retained to 'play out his contract.'

Cut Carr as an ordinary pre-June-1 cut. $40 million cap charge for 2025. Zero obligations against the cap for Carr in 2026 and beyond.

Cut Carr with a post-June-1 cut tag. $11 million cap charge for 2025 and $29 million cap charge for 2026.

As you can see, when you consider the cap beyond 2025 year, it saves the Saints $30 million salary that nobody pays and $10 million roster bonus that another team offsets if they cut Carr now. If they wait until 2026 they pay that money and that $40 million has to hit against future caps. If they keep him in 2026 they owe another $50 million which can be restructured and spread out but will hit the cap eventually.

If the the Saints restructured everything in 2025 and 2026 and just let Carr play out his contract, they would face $81 million in dead cap in 2027. They currently owe Carr $17 million dead money in 2027 with the contract as is. Restructuring his $40 million in 2025 would spread it out to $8 million a year over 5 years, so $24 million more for dead money in 2027 since $16 million would be paid in the first 2 years, and then another $40 million dead money from a 2026 restructure, where $50 million is spread out to $10m/yr for 5 years, putting money out to 2030. But all that 2027-2030 money hits at once in 2027 if his contract voids, so $81 million dead cap in 2027. As you can see, the problem doesnt get better if we wait, it gets worse. $40 million dead cap now is chump change.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

If Loomis asked all the candidates what we should do with Carr, then hired the candidate whose answer he liked best, whose decision was it really? That is my concern.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

If you actually believe that Loomis had the total control over the decision on who to hire this time around and that he would base that decision upon who agreed with him about Carr one way or the other, then you are so tainted by your personal hatred of Loomis that you cannot see reality. Just sayin'. ;)

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Thats why I said 'if' and 'concern.' I hope others were involved in the decision, such as Gayle, and I hope we decided on the person, not the persons plan 'aligning' with Loomis's plan. We were not in the room, so we can't know. I think some things Loomis said in his press conferences regarding 'aligned vision' and 'being on the same page' are enough to illicit some degree of reasonable concern that they could conflict with his other statements regarding that coach being able to make roster decisions. But I hope Moore is able to be truly independent. Its also possible that Loomis would have preferred a candidate who shared all his plans, but none of the top candidates did, and Loomis had to accept a candidate with a different vision because hiring a third tier candidate would have damaged his reputation. Its also possible that Loomis would have been truly convinced by a different vision, that they shared the same vision by pure chance, or that Loomis is willing to defer to a coach with a different vision. We just dont know.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

I always liked Carr and thought he was a good QB in a crappy system. He is average and expensive. I'd like to cut him and run with Rattler for a season. If he does grow that's great. If not, we draft higher next year.

I can put up with a rebuilding year. What I can't do is watch us draft players again with high RAS scores and potential that need development.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

That brings to mind... should we use the RAS score system for the Saints fans of today?



Every metric we can come up with points to moving on from Carr as soon as possible for the sake of the best cap implications.

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Re: The Saints Could Theoretically Give Derek Carr A True Pay Cut Ultimatum
 

Plural. Years.

It’s going to take a while to clean up this mess that has happened over the last 4-5 years with Loomis.

Restructures, cuts, new scheme, culture etc.

Saints MUST rebuild this team through the draft. That is the only way you are going to become competitive at this level & not just winning 8 or 9 games & drawing up some mathematical equation to ensure a playoff (4 years and counting) spot.

I hope Kellen Moore is up to the task. It’s going to be a difficult road ahead.