I will settle the argument!

Tobias-Reiper · 01-15-2006, 07:51 PM

Originally Posted by TheDeuce

That argument makes no sense at all. There have only been 30 something QBs taken first (or however many years the draft has been in place). But, there have been hundreds of QBs that have been taken after the first round. Look at the percentage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It's really not that hard. Cher, do some research and find all of the QBs that are drafted after the first round, then see how many of those win the Super Bowl. I guarantee you that QBs taken in the first round are more likely to succeed.

E.

Excuse me, Mr Mathematics genius, but your comparison doesn't hold water... you want to compare the results of the first round of selections (32 players) against all the other rounds combined (230 some)* . Duh!!

*and that is present. There used to be much more than 7 rounds...

TheDeuce · 01-15-2006, 07:59 PM

Only 30 % of all Superbowls were won by QB's picked #1.

You're right, it is 30%, not 40%. First of all, we don't have the first pick. So I'll go ahead and look up the first round picks, because that's what I've been arguing anyways: that 1st round QBs have a higher success rate. I looked up the stats on the numbers of QBs drafted since 1982, that's how far back NFL.com's database goes.

1982
1st rounders- 2
After the first round- 6

1983
1st rounders- 6
After the first round- 8

1984
1st rounders- 0
After- 14

1985
1st rounders- 0
After- 11

1986
1st rounders- 2
After- 13

1987
1st rounders- 4
After- 15

1988
1st rounders- 0
After- 12

1989
1st rounders- 1
After- 15

1990
1st rounders- 2
After- 18

1991
1st Rounders- 2
After- 10

1992
1st rounders- 2
After- 18

1993
1st rounders- 2
After 6

1994
1st rounders- 2
After- 7

1995
1st rounders- 2
After- 12

1996
1st rounders- 0
After- 8

1997
1st rounders- 1
After- 10

1998
1st rounders- 2
After- 6

1999
1st rounders- 5
After- 8

2000
1st rounders- 1
After- 11

2001
1st rounders- 1
After- 10

2002
1st rounders- 3
After- 11

2003
1st rounders- 4
After- 9

2004
1st rounders- 4
After- 13

2005
1st rounders- 3
After- 11

So that's 51 QBs taken in the first round since 1982. And 262 QBs taken after the first round.

16. Montana picked in the 3rd round
17. Theismann picked in the 4th round
18. Plunkett picked number 1 overall
19. Montana picked in the 3rd round
20. McMahon picked 1st round 5th pick
21. Simms picked 1st round 7th overall
22. Williams picked 1st round 17th overall
23. Montana picked in the 3rd round
24. Montana picked in the 3rd round
25. Hostetler picked in the 3rd round
26. Rypien picked in the 6th round
27. Aikman picked number 1 overall
28. Aikman picked number 1 overall
29. Young picked 1st overall in the supplemental draft
30. Aikman picked number 1 overall
31. Favre picked in the 2nd round
32. Elway picked number 1 overall
33. Elway picked number 1 overall
34. Warner not even drafted
35. Dilfer picked 1st round 6th pick
36. Brady picked in the 6th round
37. Johnson picked in the 9th round
38. Brady picked in the 6th round
39. Brady picked in the 6th round

Since Super Bowl 16, 11 of the winning quarterbacks have been first-rounders. However, Aikman and Elway won multiple Super Bowls, so that means that only 8 DIFFERENT QBs drafted in the first round have won a Super Bowl since 1982. 8/24= 33.33% But, Plunkett and Phil Simms were drafted before 1982. That means that only 6 QBs (McMahon, Williams, Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer) drafted after1982 have won a Super Bowl since 1982. 6 out of 51 = 11.76%

Now let's look at the QBs taken after the first round since 1982. 13 QBs drafted after the first round have won since Super Bowl 16. However, Montana and Theismann were drafted before 1982, that means that only 6 different QBs drafted after the first round since 1982 have won a Super Bowl. 6 out of 262 = 2.29%

So the chance of Super Bowl winning QBs drafted in the first round since 1982 is almost 12%. After the first round is a little more than 2%.

Also, what difference does it make if its the #2 pick? I'm sure there might never have been a #21 picked quarterback or any other random # to have won a Super Bowl. It's about being a first-rounder.

P.s.- McNabb is a #2 pick.

CheramieIII · 01-15-2006, 08:05 PM

McNabb never won a superbowl. You guys are trying to make the argument that Leinart is the won to pick and all I am saying is NO QB THAT HAS BEEN DRAFTED NUMBER 2 HAS EVER WON A SUPERBOWL. You can go back as far as you want on that other theory about the #1 Pick being more successful. I will stick to drafting a QB outside the first or second pick, alot more chances to win.

..you forgot to mention that, out of those 12 Superbowl wins by 1st picks overall, 9 of them were won by 3 QB's...

Bradshaw 4
Aikman 3
Elway 2

thanks Reiper and if you add Plunkett that is 11 of 12 superbowls. These guys still don't see the chance they are taking drafting a QB at the #2 spot.

CheramieIII · 01-15-2006, 08:07 PM

Since Super Bowl 16, 11 of the winning quarterbacks have been first-rounders. However, Aikman and Elway won multiple Super Bowls, so that means that only 8 DIFFERENT QBs drafted in the first round have won a Super Bowl since 1982. 8/24= 33.33% But, Plunkett and Phil Simms were drafted before 1982. That means that only 6 QBs (McMahon, Williams, Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer) drafted after1982 have won a Super Bowl since 1982. 6 out of 51 = 11.76%

and now you're just selecting what years to use. How funny you are!

CheramieIII · 01-15-2006, 08:12 PM

I work for the government and I calculate your taxes, what's my name? THEDEUCE that's who! Only someone that works for the government would try to manipulate figures in the open like you are trying to do.

biloxi-indian · 01-15-2006, 08:13 PM

Cher, you appear to still be holding on the dream of HAWK as the first draft pick of the Saints.

I admire your tenacity, but DREAM on! BTW; I would like my case of DIXE cold, thank you!

TheDeuce · 01-15-2006, 08:16 PM

First of all, how is that manipulating #s? If anything, what you quoted me on actually lowered the percentage of QBs that have gone in the first round that have won a Super Bowl. So you're actually backwards on that one.

And where did I ever say anything about #1 picks. PLEASE TELL ME. I never said anything about a #1 pick, I've always talked about first-rounders. Please tell me Cher.

CheramieIII · 01-15-2006, 08:17 PM

I'll buy it for you if and when Benson becomes stupid enough to throw his money away on Leinart. Never happen! and I like mine cold, real cold. Hey I am going to be down there in March maybe we can get together and I'll buy two cases and we can get drunk together. I don't mind losing as long as I have someone to drink with.

spkb25 · 01-15-2006, 08:18 PM

deuce you work for the government? that is just sick to me

CheramieIII · 01-15-2006, 08:20 PM

Ok then if you said first rounders like I thought you said the first time. QB's drafted outside round one have won more superbowls than QB's drafted in the first round and only 5 of those QB's won 13 superbowls. I would rather spend the money on defense and draft a second round or later QB or none at all. Free Agency baby.

01-15-2006, 07:51 PM	#11
Tobias-Reiper Merces Letifer Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,161	Re: RE: I will settle the argument! Originally Posted by TheDeuce That argument makes no sense at all. There have only been 30 something QBs taken first (or however many years the draft has been in place). But, there have been hundreds of QBs that have been taken after the first round. Look at the percentage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It's really not that hard. Cher, do some research and find all of the QBs that are drafted after the first round, then see how many of those win the Super Bowl. I guarantee you that QBs taken in the first round are more likely to succeed. E. Excuse me, Mr Mathematics genius, but your comparison doesn't hold water... you want to compare the results of the first round of selections (32 players) against all the other rounds combined (230 some)* . Duh!! *and that is present. There used to be much more than 7 rounds...

01-15-2006, 07:59 PM	#12
TheDeuce 1000 Posts + Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 2,928	RE: I will settle the argument! Only 30 % of all Superbowls were won by QB's picked #1. You're right, it is 30%, not 40%. First of all, we don't have the first pick. So I'll go ahead and look up the first round picks, because that's what I've been arguing anyways: that 1st round QBs have a higher success rate. I looked up the stats on the numbers of QBs drafted since 1982, that's how far back NFL.com's database goes. 1982 1st rounders- 2 After the first round- 6 1983 1st rounders- 6 After the first round- 8 1984 1st rounders- 0 After- 14 1985 1st rounders- 0 After- 11 1986 1st rounders- 2 After- 13 1987 1st rounders- 4 After- 15 1988 1st rounders- 0 After- 12 1989 1st rounders- 1 After- 15 1990 1st rounders- 2 After- 18 1991 1st Rounders- 2 After- 10 1992 1st rounders- 2 After- 18 1993 1st rounders- 2 After 6 1994 1st rounders- 2 After- 7 1995 1st rounders- 2 After- 12 1996 1st rounders- 0 After- 8 1997 1st rounders- 1 After- 10 1998 1st rounders- 2 After- 6 1999 1st rounders- 5 After- 8 2000 1st rounders- 1 After- 11 2001 1st rounders- 1 After- 10 2002 1st rounders- 3 After- 11 2003 1st rounders- 4 After- 9 2004 1st rounders- 4 After- 13 2005 1st rounders- 3 After- 11 So that's 51 QBs taken in the first round since 1982. And 262 QBs taken after the first round. 16. Montana picked in the 3rd round 17. Theismann picked in the 4th round 18. Plunkett picked number 1 overall 19. Montana picked in the 3rd round 20. McMahon picked 1st round 5th pick 21. Simms picked 1st round 7th overall 22. Williams picked 1st round 17th overall 23. Montana picked in the 3rd round 24. Montana picked in the 3rd round 25. Hostetler picked in the 3rd round 26. Rypien picked in the 6th round 27. Aikman picked number 1 overall 28. Aikman picked number 1 overall 29. Young picked 1st overall in the supplemental draft 30. Aikman picked number 1 overall 31. Favre picked in the 2nd round 32. Elway picked number 1 overall 33. Elway picked number 1 overall 34. Warner not even drafted 35. Dilfer picked 1st round 6th pick 36. Brady picked in the 6th round 37. Johnson picked in the 9th round 38. Brady picked in the 6th round 39. Brady picked in the 6th round Since Super Bowl 16, 11 of the winning quarterbacks have been first-rounders. However, Aikman and Elway won multiple Super Bowls, so that means that only 8 DIFFERENT QBs drafted in the first round have won a Super Bowl since 1982. 8/24= 33.33% But, Plunkett and Phil Simms were drafted before 1982. That means that only 6 QBs (McMahon, Williams, Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer) drafted after1982 have won a Super Bowl since 1982. 6 out of 51 = 11.76% Now let's look at the QBs taken after the first round since 1982. 13 QBs drafted after the first round have won since Super Bowl 16. However, Montana and Theismann were drafted before 1982, that means that only 6 different QBs drafted after the first round since 1982 have won a Super Bowl. 6 out of 262 = 2.29% So the chance of Super Bowl winning QBs drafted in the first round since 1982 is almost 12%. After the first round is a little more than 2%. Also, what difference does it make if its the #2 pick? I'm sure there might never have been a #21 picked quarterback or any other random # to have won a Super Bowl. It's about being a first-rounder. P.s.- McNabb is a #2 pick.
TheDeuce 1000 Posts + Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 2,928

01-15-2006, 08:05 PM	#13
CheramieIII Fan Since 1967 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Nomad Posts: 7,480 Blog Entries: 3	RE: I will settle the argument! McNabb never won a superbowl. You guys are trying to make the argument that Leinart is the won to pick and all I am saying is NO QB THAT HAS BEEN DRAFTED NUMBER 2 HAS EVER WON A SUPERBOWL. You can go back as far as you want on that other theory about the #1 Pick being more successful. I will stick to drafting a QB outside the first or second pick, alot more chances to win. ..you forgot to mention that, out of those 12 Superbowl wins by 1st picks overall, 9 of them were won by 3 QB's... Bradshaw 4 Aikman 3 Elway 2 thanks Reiper and if you add Plunkett that is 11 of 12 superbowls. These guys still don't see the chance they are taking drafting a QB at the #2 spot.
	Golf and sex are about the only things you can enjoy without being good at them. Jimmy Demaret

01-15-2006, 08:07 PM	#14
CheramieIII Fan Since 1967 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Nomad Posts: 7,480 Blog Entries: 3	RE: I will settle the argument! Since Super Bowl 16, 11 of the winning quarterbacks have been first-rounders. However, Aikman and Elway won multiple Super Bowls, so that means that only 8 DIFFERENT QBs drafted in the first round have won a Super Bowl since 1982. 8/24= 33.33% But, Plunkett and Phil Simms were drafted before 1982. That means that only 6 QBs (McMahon, Williams, Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer) drafted after1982 have won a Super Bowl since 1982. 6 out of 51 = 11.76% and now you're just selecting what years to use. How funny you are!

01-15-2006, 08:12 PM	#15
CheramieIII Fan Since 1967 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Nomad Posts: 7,480 Blog Entries: 3	RE: I will settle the argument! I work for the government and I calculate your taxes, what's my name? THEDEUCE that's who! Only someone that works for the government would try to manipulate figures in the open like you are trying to do.

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01-15-2006, 08:13 PM	#16
biloxi-indian Site Donor Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Southlake, TX Posts: 1,706	Cher, you appear to still be holding on the dream of HAWK as the first draft pick of the Saints. I admire your tenacity, but DREAM on! BTW; I would like my case of DIXE cold, thank you!

01-15-2006, 08:16 PM	#17
TheDeuce 1000 Posts + Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 2,928	RE: I will settle the argument! First of all, how is that manipulating #s? If anything, what you quoted me on actually lowered the percentage of QBs that have gone in the first round that have won a Super Bowl. So you're actually backwards on that one. And where did I ever say anything about #1 picks. PLEASE TELL ME. I never said anything about a #1 pick, I've always talked about first-rounders. Please tell me Cher.
TheDeuce 1000 Posts + Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 2,928

01-15-2006, 08:17 PM	#18
CheramieIII Fan Since 1967 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Nomad Posts: 7,480 Blog Entries: 3	I'll buy it for you if and when Benson becomes stupid enough to throw his money away on Leinart. Never happen! and I like mine cold, real cold. Hey I am going to be down there in March maybe we can get together and I'll buy two cases and we can get drunk together. I don't mind losing as long as I have someone to drink with.

01-15-2006, 08:18 PM	#19
spkb25 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Baltimore, MD Posts: 13,093	deuce you work for the government? that is just sick to me

01-15-2006, 08:20 PM	#20
CheramieIII Fan Since 1967 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Nomad Posts: 7,480 Blog Entries: 3	Ok then if you said first rounders like I thought you said the first time. QB's drafted outside round one have won more superbowls than QB's drafted in the first round and only 5 of those QB's won 13 superbowls. I would rather spend the money on defense and draft a second round or later QB or none at all. Free Agency baby.