Winwin

Handle: REALCHRISM
From: New Orleans & Atlanta

Hey Mike,

Thanks in advance for taking my question. Prior to the Rose Bowl, you had Matt Leinart rated as your top QB and the guy you thought that the Saints should go with. In fairness, it was not known whether or not Vince Young would declare, so having Leinart as your pick was not surprising. But not only did you feel the Saints had to add a QB with Leinart being your choice, you also felt that Leinart was the most polished QB to come into the draft since Peyton Manning and would carry a similar grade.

Now, after the Rose Bowl, you have Vince Young as both carrying a higher grade than Leinart and as the guy you would take if you were drafting for the Saints at #2. Now, sure, you are free to change your mind as we all are and I can understand why you would be gushing about Young after his Rose Bowl performance. But my question is, "by putting Young over Leinart�who you stated was better than Palmer at this stage and would carry a similar grade to Peyton--are you saying that Young is a better prospect than Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer?" If so, could you please explain why and what you saw differently--other than Young's mobility--that you, perhaps, did not see during the season (when Young played well) or wanted to be sure about?

If it is not that he is better right now, but potentially better--which I could understand--than Matt Leinart or Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer, do you feel that the Saints should go with potential over a guy who is more NFL ready? I ask because the Saints have taken potential in the past rather than the guy who was more NFL ready and it has burned us. Sure, the coaching and player development in New Orleans has not been the best, but I would think that it would be more prudent to go with a guy who is more polished and NFL ready than a guy who can boom (and possibly redefine the position) or bust(and make us regret that we took him over Leinart). I think Leinart could come in and start. He will have his ups and downs, but he can be a competent starter in year one. I think Young will need a year or two before he can be the starter.

Make no mistake I respect your opinions. You are well-researched and very knowledgeable about the game. I just do not understand your line of reasoning here and would like some clarity, if at all possible.

Oh, for the record, I personally believe that Young will be a good NFL QB, but I think he would benefit from another year of college and learning more of the nuances of the game.

Again, thanks for taking my questions.




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RealChrisM, I have had a ton of calls about this because some people believe I changed my opinion about the QB position, but that is not the case at all.

First of all, until the night of BCS Championship game Vince Young had continually said that he would return to Texas for his senior season. I never rated Vince on my board because he never said or even indicated that he was thinking about coming out early and Texas, under Mack Brown, had never lost a junior early to the NFL.

That game changed the NFL draft game for teams picking in the top three and it changed the mind of Vince Young, who knew he had played a signature game and that he would never be any hotter.

Now, in a late November “Ask Mike� segment, I think it may be November 29, which is still on the SaintsReport, site I was asked by Eric Vega/Saint from Las Vegas if I had a choice who would I pick between Young or Leinart and I said it was a tough choice, but I would pick Young.

This was the week leading into the Big-12 Championship game and the USC/UCLA contest and a month before the BCS Championship game. If you look back on the questions, you can clearly see that “IF� Young came out he would carry a tad higher grade than Leinart and he would be my preference.

From a draft standpoint, many of us who do this catch a lot of flack from college coaches who suggest we encourage juniors to come out early. I am very careful not to get into detailed breakdowns on players unless they open the door themselves, which at that time Vince Young had not. I don’t necessarily agree that some analysis from a draft prognosticator will change a players’ mind and have him come out earlier than he really wants to due to a grade, but I can say that I have heard back from a number of coaches who think it really does matter.

Evaluating a player is not a one game thing. When you grade a player, it is over a course of time and of his accomplishments, his physical skills and very importantly his upside on how his talents translate to the NFL. The intangibles are a tricky thing to evaluate since that is something you can’t measure, but you try and form a solid opinion on.

Over the years I have heard from many people who buy the book and some even in the NFL world that have complimented me on not continuously changing grades on players, like some others do and I appreciate that compliment. Unless there is an injury or an off-the-field problem, I usually stick with my grade and opinion on a prospect because I personally feel you can be trapped in constantly changing your opinion and draft grade on a prospect and normally your first evaluation is the best one.

There is no question that I said and wrote that Matt Leinart was the most refined pro style QB. to come out of college since Peyton Manning and I have said many times that he has just as good a shot to reach NFL stardom as Peyton and Eli did when they came out. I truly feel that Vince Young has the same type grade and one even higher to play in the NFL.

Over the past years these are the grades I have given QB’s and I included both Young and Leinart’s grades in the process. While something could possibly come up to change those figures, I feel pretty certain this will be the end result, unless there is an injury concern that arises.

Peyton Manning- 19.50
Mike Vick-19.50
David Carr-19.50
Vince Young-19.49
Eli Manning-19.48
Matt Leinart-19.48
Carson Palmer-19.48
Ben Roethlisberger-19.47
Byron Leftwich-19.39
Joey Harrington-19.36
Aaron Rodgers-19.33
Alex Smith-19.32
Chad Pennington-19.18
Philip Rivers-19.13
Drew Brees-19.12
Kyle Boller-19.03
J.P. Losman-19.02
Rex Grossman-19.00

When you look at the grades of P. Manning, M. Vick, V. Young, E. Manning, M. Leinart, C. Palmer and B. Roethlisberger, there is very little difference and I have said many times that whichever one the Saints may get will be a great pickup.

Why is Vince Young such a hot prospect? It is very easy to see that he has the size, the arm strength, the poise under pressure, great leadership skills, the ability to make all the necessary throws and unbelievable mobility and escapability skills. Yes, he does throw the ball a bit awkward, but there are a host of NFL QB’s that do also and Brett Favre is one of them. The feature he has is a super quick release and a very flexible wrist “whip� motion with his throws. He will need some work with his footwork, his ability to read and direct his throws quicker downfield and working from under center, but those are very correctable problems. Vince and Matt will have a learning curve to go through and both have to realize that being picked very high means you don’t go to a team with a ton of talent around you. Matt will also need some mechanical work, (very minor), getting the ball off a bit quicker and getting a bit stronger. He hasn’t had a chance to really work with the weights extensively last season due to the elbow surgery, but he will get physically stronger and he has plenty enough arm strength.

Really, this is coming down to almost the same sort of situation that happened between Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. Both were tremendous prospects, but the evaluation of most teams was that Eli would make the transition to pro football quicker than Roethlisberger. Ben had played at a smaller school and remember he came out as a junior and he worked out of the shotgun quite a bit in college. Now, I would have never dreamed that Philip Rivers would get sandwiched in-between the two when my book came out, but again it goes to show you it takes only one team to like you more than another and Ben fell a few spots later to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I really don’t believe in coming in and learning to play pro football. If you are the better player, I say play the young QB and let him learn the ropes of the league. Roethlisberger, Eli, Peyton, Leftwich, all played quite a bit as rookies. Now Palmer and A. Smith saw limited work, but I say, if Young or Leinart is the best quarterback on your team you play him.

The tricky part of all this is just how fast both will make that learning curve to the pros. Brady and Roethlisberger led their teams to Super Bowls in Year 2 of their career. Both Vince and Matt are very intelligent young men with excellent leadership skills and both will pick up the pro game pretty well, but just how good a supporting cast will be around them is another story. David Carr with the Texans has been beaten up in a bad manner on a team that has done little to protect him. Everyone points a finger at him and says he was overrated, but when you are constantly getting “clocked� on every play your game would be off also.

The one thing I really like about both is just how competitive each of them is. Both hate to lose and they have that certain “competitive mean streak� in them that champs normally have.

I do favor Vince over Matt, but people in the Saints organization have a slight lean with Leinart over Young. I am sure that Sean Payton will have plenty to say about which one of the QB’s he wants, but I have a strong feeling it will be Leinart to the Saints. Again, I think that the feeling is that Leinart and Young are very close grade wise and that the Saints will go with the QB they think will come in and pick up the NFL faster. Talking to some in their organization Leinart has the edge, but they are leaving room in there for further evaluation of Vince Young.

I totally disagree with you that Vince should have returned to Texas to play his senior season. The “work points� in his game that he needs to improve upon deals more with pro style work than working again in the “spread-offense� Texas runs. To a certain extent it is like saying Michael Jordan should have played out his college career at North Carolina to learn how to shoot from the perimeter better or that Shaq O’Neil should have played his senior season at LSU to learn how to shoot free throws better and shoot better from outside the paint. After what all of us watched in the BCS Championship game there is no question he made the right choice. Yes, he could have come back and won the Heisman, a possible 2nd national championship and so forth, but he also could have sustained an injury that hurt his draft stock like Byron Leftwich. Just remember that virtually everyone had Leftwich rated ahead of Palmer before his senior season also.

To be honest, it really was the only reasonable financial and professional choice to make.

Hope that clears it up for you and just check out the “Ask Mike� from November and you will see there is no change of heart here about the QB situation. Don’t get too caught up with who is better because with the right supporting cast both will lead their teams to championship play in the future. That’s how good Leinart and Young are.

Take Care.

IN THE END THE THIRST ALWAYS WINS-DRACULA

spkb25

well looking at his grade for vick and it being the same as manning that lets me know how much stock to put into him

jergensl

couldn't have said it better spkb25.

ScottyRo

I was going to say the exact same thing. Without getting into the whole M. Vick debate, having him gradedout on a level with Manning or even above Roethlisberger or Palmer is absurd.

BJSim

Scotty I get into arguements all the time about "how good" Vick is as a QB, or if he deserves to be in the ProBowl year in and out. I now simply say he's the best Running Back playing at QB in the league. There is NO WAY he should be rated that high. Is Vick (and possibly Young) a playmaker? Yes. Is he a great QB? No.

ScottyRo

It's funny you said that BJ, cuz right after the Rose Bowl and all this Vince Young talk started going on I said to a friend of mine that "Young is going to make some team a great RB."

Maybe he'll prove me wrong.

BlackandBlue

hahaha, I was saying WR. :P

still not completely sold on him, but it's hard not to like his attitude.

Tobias-Reiper

..what's with the posting drivel from other forums' idiots here?

yasoon

Don't get me wrong, I hate Mike Vick. But, I don't think you can write Mike D's ratings off because he rated the 2 of them the same. Take the names off the jerseys....Who would you rather have in the playoffs? A guy who has won on the road in Lambeau, or a guy who seemingly craps himself every year when the big game comes around. Peyton really put some legs under that big game choker label with his play against Pitt. They finally got home field and they got schooled....that game was not as close as the final kick made it look.

Certainly, Peyton is a far better QB......and I wish injuries on Vick every single play of the year. But, you could argue that Mike D factored in the RB skills in his grade. Look at that list....there aren't too many busts on there...now, he may have left off some embarassing ones...I don't know. (It would be interesting to see where he put Leaf, or Couch, or Klingler, or Akili....any of those high profile busts.) As of right now, most of those guys are starters, albeit some on the way out...some unproven. So, his grades are overall pretty good.


Me? I don't know who I would take. I think Young is the risk/reward guy. I think Lienart is the safe bet. Matt scares me a little bit because of the talent around him. I liken it to taking a free agent off of New England's defense...hard to tell sometimes when a player is surrounded by a good scheme and other great players. Vince did alot with his legs in the NC game...but I have never seen a player carry a football team the way he did, and I think he's a class act.

Winwin

you feel that way to?? lienfart scaring you, he should terrify you. the guy played with talent like none other in his 4 years at usc. you say vince carried texas with his legs? vince was the most accurate passer in ncaa this past year, he threw for almost as many yards as he ran in the national c.

they're both gonna sit this year so take the safer pick, vince young.