Excellent Read About Draft Pick Values and Trading

LKelley67 · 03-18-2006, 05:13 PM

take the time to check it out. i agree whole heartedly. this will have me devising multiple trade down scenarios LOL.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ram...?p=2530&cat=10

wheelman · 03-18-2006, 05:27 PM

the moment you begin to rely on mathematical formulas to determine how you run your franchise is the moment your franchise goes down the toilet. The key to any good trade is your instinct, and not a number value.

LKelley67 · 03-18-2006, 05:44 PM

I do not believe in such formulas either but there is empirical evidence to show the success ratio of 2nd round picks in relation to salary paid. NFL teams do use that value chart pretty tightly. look at any trade of picks and you can see that. With those values ask yourself this question- would you rather the Saints #2 overal pick or if you could devise such a trade, would you rather have picks #36, 37, 38, 39, and 40 instead? (by the charts they are equal). The 5 selections for me easily. I think the main thrust of the article was the wisdom of trading down not how it was figured.

ssmitty · 03-19-2006, 06:21 AM

good read kelly.............
a lot of truth be said to tying up a lot of money on one player......
it's amazing the minute that salary cap went up how many more bucks teams spent......
and, on one player at that...
to take a chance on all that money is a gamble to say the least..
let's see how many 2nd round picks you can get us on your mock trade......smitty

LKelley67 · 03-19-2006, 12:43 PM

LOL, you suckered me in, alright...

#2 for NYJ #4, #35, and 2007 3rd rounder (going light just to show how possible it can be)

then

#4 and one of the then two 2007 3rd rounders to Oakland for #7 and #38

add in

2007 #1 for Denver's #22 (widely reported how they want less draft picks this year)

the result=

#7, 22, 34, 35, 38 with no #1 in 2007

Five picks, all being potential starters. Say- A.J. Hawk LB, Eric Winston OT, Ashton Youboty CB, Claude Wroten DT, and maybe even Nick Mangold C. Not too far out to be possible. Your call- those 5 and no #1 in 2007 or D'brick and Wroten (as things are now) with the 2007 #1.

PS/ I really like the idea of trading 2007 picks cuz I think there is the potential to be one of the most improved/turnaround teams next season (ala Bears or Bucs last year).

ssmitty · 03-19-2006, 02:15 PM

come on kelly, we need one more 2nd rounder.............is that the best you can do? smitty

LKelley67 · 03-19-2006, 03:28 PM

hehehe, okay how bout even better. with a forecast of the jets/seahawk trade working here ya go...

swap #2 to #4
for #31 and #71

swap #4 and # 98 (4th) to #7
for #38

swap #130 (5th) and acquired #38
for #29

swap #162 (6th), #194 (7th), and 2007 first round
for #22

end result? #7, 22, 29, 31, 34, and 71 that's your whole draft, 5 of the top 34 players and one more. one high impact starter and 4 other good shots at being starters.

ssmitty · 03-19-2006, 04:49 PM

Originally Posted by LKelley67

hehehe, okay how bout even better. with a forecast of the jets/seahawk trade working here ya go...

swap #2 to #4
for #31 and #71

swap #4 and # 98 (4th) to #7
for #38

swap #130 (5th) and acquired #38
for #29

swap #162 (6th), #194 (7th), and 2007 first round
for #22

end result? #7, 22, 29, 31, 34, and 71 that's your whole draft, 5 of the top 34 players and one more. one high impact starter and 4 other good shots at being starters.

but kelly, how would we fare getting out the first all together, come on, a mind is a terrible thing to waste, don't you agree?...................smitty after all, we're not only looking for value, we're looking for a dominating team for yrs to come..........while, saving money.........is'nt this how super bowl teams become, super bowl teams?

ssmitty · 03-19-2006, 05:14 PM

and don't forget about teams like buffalo, lions, gb, even san fran, and especially the cowboys.......smitty

03-18-2006, 05:27 PM	#2
wheelman Sammich Lover Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 682	RE: Excellent Read About Draft Pick Values and Trading the moment you begin to rely on mathematical formulas to determine how you run your franchise is the moment your franchise goes down the toilet. The key to any good trade is your instinct, and not a number value.
wheelman Sammich Lover Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 682

03-19-2006, 02:15 PM	#6
ssmitty 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,879	come on kelly, we need one more 2nd rounder.............is that the best you can do? smitty
ssmitty 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,879

03-19-2006, 04:49 PM	#8
ssmitty 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,879	Originally Posted by LKelley67 hehehe, okay how bout even better. with a forecast of the jets/seahawk trade working here ya go... swap #2 to #4 for #31 and #71 swap #4 and # 98 (4th) to #7 for #38 swap #130 (5th) and acquired #38 for #29 swap #162 (6th), #194 (7th), and 2007 first round for #22 end result? #7, 22, 29, 31, 34, and 71 that's your whole draft, 5 of the top 34 players and one more. one high impact starter and 4 other good shots at being starters. but kelly, how would we fare getting out the first all together, come on, a mind is a terrible thing to waste, don't you agree?...................smitty after all, we're not only looking for value, we're looking for a dominating team for yrs to come..........while, saving money.........is'nt this how super bowl teams become, super bowl teams?
ssmitty 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,879

03-19-2006, 05:14 PM	#9
ssmitty 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,879	and don't forget about teams like buffalo, lions, gb, even san fran, and especially the cowboys.......smitty
ssmitty 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,879

03-18-2006, 05:13 PM	#1
LKelley67 1000 Posts + Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: baton rouge Posts: 2,540	Excellent Read About Draft Pick Values and Trading take the time to check it out. i agree whole heartedly. this will have me devising multiple trade down scenarios LOL. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ram...?p=2530&cat=10

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03-18-2006, 05:44 PM	#3
LKelley67 1000 Posts + Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: baton rouge Posts: 2,540	I do not believe in such formulas either but there is empirical evidence to show the success ratio of 2nd round picks in relation to salary paid. NFL teams do use that value chart pretty tightly. look at any trade of picks and you can see that. With those values ask yourself this question- would you rather the Saints #2 overal pick or if you could devise such a trade, would you rather have picks #36, 37, 38, 39, and 40 instead? (by the charts they are equal). The 5 selections for me easily. I think the main thrust of the article was the wisdom of trading down not how it was figured.

03-19-2006, 06:21 AM	#4
ssmitty 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,879	good read kelly............. a lot of truth be said to tying up a lot of money on one player...... it's amazing the minute that salary cap went up how many more bucks teams spent...... and, on one player at that... to take a chance on all that money is a gamble to say the least.. let's see how many 2nd round picks you can get us on your mock trade......smitty
ssmitty 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,879

03-19-2006, 12:43 PM	#5
LKelley67 1000 Posts + Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: baton rouge Posts: 2,540	LOL, you suckered me in, alright... #2 for NYJ #4, #35, and 2007 3rd rounder (going light just to show how possible it can be) then #4 and one of the then two 2007 3rd rounders to Oakland for #7 and #38 add in 2007 #1 for Denver's #22 (widely reported how they want less draft picks this year) the result= #7, 22, 34, 35, 38 with no #1 in 2007 Five picks, all being potential starters. Say- A.J. Hawk LB, Eric Winston OT, Ashton Youboty CB, Claude Wroten DT, and maybe even Nick Mangold C. Not too far out to be possible. Your call- those 5 and no #1 in 2007 or D'brick and Wroten (as things are now) with the 2007 #1. PS/ I really like the idea of trading 2007 picks cuz I think there is the potential to be one of the most improved/turnaround teams next season (ala Bears or Bucs last year).

03-19-2006, 03:28 PM	#7
LKelley67 1000 Posts + Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: baton rouge Posts: 2,540	hehehe, okay how bout even better. with a forecast of the jets/seahawk trade working here ya go... swap #2 to #4 for #31 and #71 swap #4 and # 98 (4th) to #7 for #38 swap #130 (5th) and acquired #38 for #29 swap #162 (6th), #194 (7th), and 2007 first round for #22 end result? #7, 22, 29, 31, 34, and 71 that's your whole draft, 5 of the top 34 players and one more. one high impact starter and 4 other good shots at being starters.