stockman311

A few notes from my first first-round projection for April's NFL draft:



• The Miami Dolphins need help on defense and Bill Parcells is a defensive-minded coach, so DT Glenn Dorsey would be the logical pick. And while the Dolphins could listen to trade offers for the top pick, there has not been a lot of movement in the top 10 in recent drafts. Why did Adrian Peterson slip to No. 7 last year? Because teams weren't willing to trade up knowing they would have to part with draft picks and pay more money for the higher pick. Also for Miami, QB Matt Ryan has to be in the discussion because the Dolphins may not be sold on John Beck (a second-round pick last year). Miami needs quarterback help and Ryan is going to be a top-five pick. Ryan might be too good to pass up, and he's a better prospect than Beck was when he came out of BYU last year. (Ryan is the only QB I am projecting will go in the first round).



• St. Louis will likely go with Long -- either Chris or Jake. Although the Rams drafted defensive tackle Adam Carriker last year, I could see them taking Virginia defensive end Chris Long. He's similar to Dorsey in that he plays with tremendous intensity and makes everyone around him better. If the Rams don't go with Chris Long, then Michigan left tackle Jake Long should be the pick since they could use help on the offensive line.



• The Atlanta Falcons should be in a good spot to upgrade at either running back or quarterback, so Darren McFadden or Matt Ryan could be the choice. I like Ryan here because this is a franchise that is in desperate need of a quarterback after going from Michael Vick to Joey Harrington to Byron Leftwich before finishing the season with Chris Redman.



• If Atlanta doesn't take McFadden, then Oakland will. (Remember, Oakland and Atlanta have a coin toss to determine who picks third overall.) After drafting first overall in 2007, Oakland could be looking at getting the best player in the draft if McFadden is available.



Also, there are only 31 selections in the first round this year because the New England Patriots had to forfeit their pick after illegally videotaping signals during their Week 1 game against the New York Jets.



The draft projections below are not based on ratings, but on information I have gathered and where I think teams will go based on needs. The first-round projections will be updated Jan. 31 following evaluations from the Senior Bowl.



* denotes underclassman; ** denotes teams that will decide draft order by coin flip.

Kiper's First-Round Projection
Name Team Player Position
1 Miami Dolphins Glenn Dorsey, DT LSU
2 St. Louis Rams Chris Long, DE Virginia
3 Atlanta Falcons** Matt Ryan, QB Boston College
4 Oakland Raiders** *Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas
5 Kansas City Chiefs** Jake Long, OT Michigan
6 New York Jets *Vernon Gholston, DE Ohio St.
7 New England Patriots (from SF) *Aqib Talib, CB Kansas
8 Baltimore Ravens Sedrick Ellis, DT USC
9 Cincinnati Bengals *Phillip Merling, DE Clemson
10 New Orleans Saints Kentwan Balmer, DT North Carolina
11 Buffalo Bills *Malcolm Kelly, WR Oklahoma
12 Denver Broncos *Ryan Clady, OT Boise St.
13 Carolina Panthers Jeff Otah, OT Pittsburgh
14 Chicago Bears Sam Baker, OT USC
15 Detroit Lions Leodis McKelvin, CB Troy
16 Arizona Cardinals *Jonathan Stewart, RB Oregon
17 Minnesota Vikings *DeSean Jackson, WR California
18 Houston Texans Mike Jenkins, CB South Florida
19 Philadelphia Eagles Chris Williams, OT Vanderbilt
20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers *Felix Jones, RB Arkansas
21 Washington Redskins *Calais Campbell, DE Miami
22 Dallas Cowboys (from CLE) *Mario Manningham, WR Michigan
23 Pittsburgh Steelers *Chilo Rachal, OG USC
24 Tennessee Titans Limas Sweed, WR Texas
25 Seattle Seahawks Fred Davis, TE USC
26 Jacksonville Jaguars *Derrick Harvey, DE Florida
27 San Diego Chargers *Reggie Smith, CB Oklahoma
28 Dallas Cowboys *Rashard Mendenhall, RB Illinois
29 San Francisco 49ers (from IND) *James Hardy, WR Indiana
30 Green Bay Packers Keith Rivers, LB USC
31 New York Giants Dan Connor, LB Penn St.
32 New England Patriots Forfeited pick




Maybe this guy is better than we think he is at 10. I'm not sold, but we are still early in the process.

hagan714

this is mel. record 6 OL men picked in round one. It is a good draft year for OL but 5 OT? lol give me a break. but if for once he is right we will have some good players falling to us in round 2,

QBREES9

10 New Orleans Saints Kentwan Balmer, DT North Carolina ??? I don't know
How about Dan Conner LB PENN STATE

Cancer Beater

No thanks:

Strengths:
Good size with a large frame and room to bulk up further...Extremely strong...Very athletic...Has pretty good speed and quickness...Nice range and does a good job in pursuit...Can hold his ground at the point of attack...Offers some versatility...Is coming off a great senior year...Can contribute on special teams...Still has upside.

Weaknesses:
Inconsistent and has a questionable motor...Does not have great bulk...Has some trouble shedding blocks...He is slow to read and react....Plays with poor leverage at times...Considered to be an underachiever prior to 2007...Could be a 'tweener.

Notes:
The light finally seemed to come on and he started to fulfill his immense potential as a senior...He could project to either tackle in a 4-3 or end in a 3-4...Has all the physical tools you look for but will need to stay motivated and play like he did this past year..Exceptionally talented but a risky prospect who is a boom or bust type.

We will win a Superbowl before 2010

hagan714

After an excellent first day, North Carolina defensive tackle Kentwan Ballmer had to remove himself from the event with a legitimate hamstring injury.

Ok he just got a bit of a hit.

and a boost goes to

Penn State linebacker Dan Connor is a smart, instinctual, hard-nosed player who reads offenses in a blink of an eye. He plays with the saavy of an established veteran and is a low risk option at inside linebacker. The term gets used too much, but Connor is old school.

SapperSaint

You guys just watch the Saints will pick Balmer.

North Carolina?? NORTH CAROLINA!!!!! GIVE ME A FREAKIN' BREAK. North Carolina?

saintsfan1976

One guy says Conner can read offenses like a hawk the other says Conner is slow to read and react.... I love draft talk in January!!!

First of all Mel is too worried about getting his helmet hair in line for the cameras to have a legit Mock up this early... Why would you pay for his "Insider Info" if he nailed the draft right from the start?? He sucks in my opinion. 5 OL?? C'mon o' ruler of the rookies - Jenkins at #18??? we know better.

Ellis or Talib slips to New Orleans.

saintspassion

Kentwan Balmer? i wanna slap mel kiper jr for saying that..like wtf...it makes me mad...he cant be serious....he must not know who jason david is...by the way...its killing me, does anyone know how much david benches? i bet its like 225...he should quit

FireVenturi

Balmer reminds me a lot of Sullivan.......please no!!!!

ScottF

A line you are guarenteed to hear from Kiper at least 5 times on draft day:

"Well, this is a BIG surprise to me..."

Mel, they all are.

This guy talks and talks, but his record sucks. He's like Jim Cramer on CNBC-- screams and waves his arms, but his stock picks always tank.

Remember- Mel didn't even have tape of O.Young. The guy didn't exactly set the league on fire, but c'mon, no info, no footage?

Jenkins at 18?, Rivers at 30? Hell, let's trade down right now.