I agree with you 100%. I also agree that there appears to be a talent drop off in players after the top 8. I view the top 4 picks in the draft as all gambles at the prices they will bring in contracts. So with the 10th pick we may have a great trade bait fall into our laps from the top players. Then there is another way to look at it.
At the 10th pick (1300 pts) we start talking about the best of the #2 picks at thier positions and also the first of the WR, CB, S and such. This is probably one of the most traded picks in the draft. Who are the teams that may make the jump up in round 1 and why?
Buffallo at number 11 is the key. What do they need that other teams need? Teams wanting the best off the rest at LB, WR, and CB: must consider the cost of getting ahead of the Bills.

12 Denver - Need a WR , OL and well any off the front 7 on defense they can find. Cost 100 points or a 4th round pick (109,76) and a fifth. Problem here the Broncos traded their third round pick to Minnesota. So I doubt they will make the move unless they are 1000% sold on a player

13 Panthers - Well trading in our division is not going to happen. Rarely

14 Bears - Now the bears are in a flux this year. Alot of FA and cap questions. I still do not think QB is the pick for them here unless the no QB are selected in the top 10. Which could happen. OL is the bait here for us. OT Clady would be the player I would pick for them to go after. The move would cost the Bears 200 pts or a third(75,215). Now the Bears are very good trading partners here. They have the chargers 3rd to go along with their own. Now two picks on day 2 of the draft in third is great. We can trade up in the second or the third to get a player and still recieve picks in return.

15 Lions - Have much the same needs as us. But they do not have extra picks, but do have all of their own. This move would cost them 250 points or a third (76, 210) and a fifth. Again we are talking swapping picks and all the other things possible.

16. Cards - I do not see them do much in the way of moving up in the draft. From what I have read they seem very happy where they are sitting and the players that will be there when the pick. But then again the combine has not started and well we still have the Fitz trade romurs out there too.

17. Vikings - Here is my ideal trading partner. The Vikings need WR and CB. Both of which should be tempting them to move up in the draft. The fact they have two third round picks make dumping a second even less serious in the draft. Now the move would cost them 350 points. The second round pick is worth 410 points. There is always a penilty charged in a move such as this. 17 to 10 and 60 points is not that bad. Thats pick 117 in the 4th. Ok we may have to trade a 6th or a 7th to make it work but that is ok. They should be targeting a top CB or WR. My vote goes for Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma or DeSean Jackson, WR/PR, California. i know most do not have Jackson this high but I am looking at him to challenge for the top spot after the combine. The Vikes have tried for years to solve the problems at WR and failed. Either one of them and Rice would be a nice combo. Both thirds (75,90) at a value of 315 could work into the picture also. Swapping picks and all the other possibilities to make the trade work.

After this you have a couple of choices but the cost get really high. Dallas with 2 Number one is possible if they trade #22(780), 59(310), 92(132) Even with that they come up short 182. So the second #1 woulds have to be involve unless they are willing to go with a 2nd in 2009 along with 22 and 59. The saints may get a lower pick in the later rounds as an insurance policy. WR is the player they will target IMO. again we are sitting on the pick were the top two will be on the board ahead of the Bills.

I am less than happy about the effect 3 small school CB are having in the draft. History indicates that two out of the three will not pan out. So trading down seems very good for the saints. Lets hope the scouting department is burning the mid night oil on this round. If we can pull it off we could challenge the patriots as power brokers in this year draft and still get some very good players.

If miami does not trade down from #1 then they will be looking to trade out of the #33 spot in round two big time. Then you have all the others who traded picks looking to recover those picks. We are sitting very nicely right now at 10. Lets see how the combine changes things first. IMO I think it should make the #10 spot even more tempting to trade up to.