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Evaluating NFL Draft Prospects

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Canton, nice point about starts versus games played. That is a good distinction. Further, it makes a nice point about how the College coach's judgment about the player gets packed into how we evaluate him - the coach's decision about ...

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Old 05-03-2008, 08:14 PM   #1
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Re: Evaluating NFL Draft Prospects

Canton, nice point about starts versus games played. That is a good distinction. Further, it makes a nice point about how the College coach's judgment about the player gets packed into how we evaluate him - the coach's decision about who to play, when, and how often tells us something about the player.

Smitty, you get paid only in kudos... as usual.

Hagan, I'm sure that the measurements are not the best way to judge, this would be like evaluating a player ONLY in terms of his stats. As Euph points out, that is worthless (I think that is overstated, but point more or less taken). Thus, 40 times (which, as we saw in our earlier thread, are not correlated to NFL success) would be of little benefit if the player can't judge the ball or is always out of position.

Game tapes introduce a different kind of problem. Observations of a player can be colored by our beliefs, background theories and so on. That is, if we already think a player is quite good, we might be willing to overlook/forgive certain kinds of slip ups that we would hold against a believed "lesser" player. In a sense, the stats take out some of the subjectivity of our "viewing."

Thus, it seems like there is a trade-off between game tape (for example) and measurements. This might be one place where scouting is more of an art than a science?

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Old 05-03-2008, 08:44 PM   #2
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Re: Evaluating NFL Draft Prospects

Originally Posted by JKool View Post
Canton, nice point about starts versus games played. That is a good distinction. Further, it makes a nice point about how the College coach's judgment about the player gets packed into how we evaluate him - the coach's decision about who to play, when, and how often tells us something about the player.
PT is a prime example of that. In his Jr year there was talk about him as a possible day one pick. Then in his senior year he gets a new coach and drops of the map. Very valid point.


Originally Posted by JKool View Post
Hagan, I'm sure that the measurements are not the best way to judge, this would be like evaluating a player ONLY in terms of his stats. As Euph points out, that is worthless (I think that is overstated, but point more or less taken). Thus, 40 times (which, as we saw in our earlier thread, are not correlated to NFL success) would be of little benefit if the player can't judge the ball or is always out of position.
True. Messures are just indicators, thats all. Thats where the drills come into play. Better indication of what the players weaknesses are. Tapes show game time reactions and tendencies.

Originally Posted by JKool View Post
Game tapes introduce a different kind of problem. Observations of a player can be colored by our beliefs, background theories and so on. That is, if we already think a player is quite good, we might be willing to overlook/forgive certain kinds of slip ups that we would hold against a believed "lesser" player. In a sense, the stats take out some of the subjectivity of our "viewing."
I call that Homerism. This is the hardest thing to guard against. One good play does not make up for two bad ones. Thats where you have to look at production for and against. Pass defenses Vs first downs surrender, for example. DRC scored very low in this. He was down right bad. The talent is there so you have to question his heart.

Originally Posted by JKool View Post
Thus, it seems like there is a trade-off between game tape (for example) and measurements. This might be one place where scouting is more of an art than a science?
This is where you get the money.


Originally Posted by JKool View Post
Smitty, you get paid only in kudos... as usual.
I get French Market coffee and M&Ms for my efforts. LOL

"We may have lost the game, but you'll be hurting tomorrow." Doug Atkins

Last edited by hagan714; 05-03-2008 at 08:47 PM..
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