hagan714

In another thread on draft grades we started talking about how the evaluations of prospects and the grading system worked. So to start it off I am going to give you guys an out line that I have used and still do. I have altered it a bit here and there over time but it is pretty much the same.
I do a lot of cross referencing of other sites and well I let them do a lot of the typing. I edit what I do not agree with and insert a few things they I think they leave out that are important.

This is how I got started.
Lets start with this one.

Evaluating NFL Draft Prospects
From James Alder,

Lesson 2 - Beginning NFL Draft Prospect Evaluation

So you've got your database of NFL Draft prospects built, or at least started, the video tapes are rolling, and you're ready to start scouting. I usually watch tape with a computer on my lap, but if your database is on a desktop that is not near a television, you can jot down notes on paper and transfer them to your computer later.

After you have chosen a game to watch, sort your database by team so you can easily find the players you want to scout. In the comments section, jot down the specific areas (we will cover the specifics for each position in the next four lessons) you will be looking at for each player. Doing this ahead of time will make it easy to quickly post a comment or two in an organized fashion.

Watching the game itself is of little importance to your overall evaluation, although you might want to pay ttention to how players react in clutch situations, especially when the game is on the line.

I like to focus on one player at a time, searching the tape for plays that include the player in question. After evaluating all the plays that include the first player, I rewind the tape and start with another player.

Lesson Three through six will focus on the specifics to look for at each offensive position, but for now, I want to talk about what NFL teams look for in general. These are the traits to look for in every prospect regardless of position.

• Character - How much character factors into the equation varies from team to team and scout to scout. I believe character is a very important factor when determining whether a young player can be depended upon on a consistent basis. Obviously character doesn't matter much if the guy doesn't have the athletic ability, but it can be the deciding factor between two players of similar talent. Since most of you will not have access to most college football players, you may have to listen to reports from other draft experts for information in this area. Also keep an eye out for players that make a habit of making the evening news with their off-field exploits or immature comments.

• Competitiveness - How bad does this player want to win? Do they go all out on every down or do they take plays off? There's a fine line between being competitive and being overly aggressive. You want a player that has the intensity to go hard all the time, but you don't want to see a player lose his cool. Ideally, you want a guy who will give it his all until the whistle blows, but doesn't let his anger get the better of him.

• Mental Preparation and Awareness - Does a player seem to understand his duties and what the team is trying to accomplish on every play? Does he spend the necessary time with his nose in the playbook or watching game film? Does he understand what's going on around him at all times? Does he react well when the play breaks down?

• Athleticism - Playing speed, quickness off the ball, strength, and body control should all be factored into a players athleticism. Body control would include things like balance, turning and running, adjusting to the ball, timing jumps correctly, and ability to avoid or break tackles.

• Leadership - Look for the player that is always prepared to do his job properly and works hard whether in practice or a game. A good leader does not need to be vocal, but must be respected by his teammates. He also sets a good example with his work ethic, shows up to play on every down, and pulls the team together when things are not going so well.

• Consistency - Does the player put in a good effort every week or does he tend to disappear at times?

• Injuries - Unfortunately, injuries are a big part of football, so you have to be aware of a player's medical history. If a player is prone to injuries that keep him in the trainer's room as often as he's on the field, you might not want to risk a draft pick on him. Any type of knee injury should be noted, as should any degenerative disorders.

How does this translate into a scouting report?

Of course, you'll want to do a more detailed analysis that is position specific before you write a final scouting report. Basically your report will organize all of the notes you've taken on a player and put them into an easy to read format and possibly assign a grade to that player. The report should also outline the player's strengths and weaknesses.

Grading is very subjective, and depends a lot on which categories you apply the most importance to. Obviously, arm strength is more important to a quarterback than running ability, so you will have to weigh all observations differently before applying a grade. You cannot simply give a quarterback a score of 5 for running ability and a 3 for arm strength and average it out to a grade of 4. I suggest you grade each player in each facet of the game, then develop your own formula that varies by giving more weight to the more important areas of the game.

Evaluating NFL Draft Prospects - Beginning Player Evaluation

I like this write up. It is basic and gives a good place to start.


Lesson 1 - Getting Started - how to setup the data base
NFL Draft Prospects - Get Started Evaluating NFL Draft Prospects

Lesson 2 - General Player Evaluation
Football, NFL Draft Index - Articles

Lesson 3 - Scouting Quarterbacks
Evaluating NFL Draft Prospects - Scouting Quarterbacks

Lesson 4 - Scouting Running Backs
Evaluating NFL Draft Prospects - Scouting Running Backs

Lesson 5 - Scouting Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
Evaluating NFL Draft Prospects - Scouting Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

Lesson 6 on you have to sign up for.

Learning to Scout Offensive Linemen
Evaluating NFL Draft Prospects - Scouting Offensive Linemen

Now as for the defensive side of the ball pretty much falls into the same type of things. I had to pay to get help in that. You know they are going to get into you wallet some where along the line. But it all made sense after doing the offense. Just think in reverse.

"We may have lost the game, but you'll be hurting tomorrow." Doug Atkins

JKool

Nice!

This is a very interesting flow from our other discussion.

The first thing I notice here is this: of the seven bullets for ranking, only one of them is athleticism!

This seems intuitive to me, since football is a very cerebral and team oriented sport, physical skill and ability is only one piece of the puzzle. However, I'm guessing that it isn't 1/7th of what makes a great football player.

Most noteworthy oddity:

This is an odd thing to say. The "grade" given to a player is subjective, but only insofar as the weighting given to each of the 7 (or more) indices. All the scouts are looking at the same things (which is objective - the player, the plays he makes, the plays he doesn't make and so on). So, the subjectivity comes in at the level of determining the player's "prospects" in terms of success at the NFL level (or something like that?).

Further, even if your overall grade contains this subjective element, the relative judgments among players on the same dimension will be much less subjective. For example, say "pancake blocks" - you can tell which linemen do this more often, the quality of defenders they do it do, and so on. Relative to eachother, on this one dimension, a judgment may be quite objective.

Hagan, thanks for finding this stuff. I don't have a very developed opinion regarding ranking player prospects, scouting, and draft grading. I'm looking forward to what happens with this thread.

"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks

hagan714

Your welcome. Thanks for steering me this direction.
One thing about athleticism that has a wide range of values. I look for the ability to create turnovers on defense and I think I over value them more than most. Look at this years draft class at CB. It is a great example.

We all know how the draft rankings went. But I viewed them a bit differently.

I have a habit of grouping is based on risk factors.

Safe Bets

Leodis McKelvin, Troy, 5102, 190, 4.38, 17, 33.5 (CB/KR)
Small school, poor hands, very solid cover skills, good KR skills

Antoine Cason, Arizona, 5115, 182, 4.49, 20, 35.5 (CB/S)
Productive, good hands, very solid cover skills, strong

Tracy Porter, Indiana, 5107, 186, 4.33, 18, 34 (CB/S/KR)
Speed, Productive, good hands, so so hitter?

Charles Godfrey, Iowa, 5116, 208, 4.44 (CB/S)
productive, solid hitter, lack of experience at one position, intriguing prospect

Justin King, Penn St., 5107, 192, 4.31, 14, 34 (CB/KR/WR)
speed, lack of experience at one position, great hands, intriguing prospect

Dwight Lowery, San Jose St., 5111, 201, 4.47, 16, 33.5 (CB/S)
Small school, Productive, so so hitter

Chevis Jackson, L.S.U., 6000, 192, 4.56, 13, 36 (CB/S tweener)
Smart, good hands, solid cover

Patrick Lee, Auburn, 6000, 200, 4.53, 15, (CB/S)
lack of experience at one position, size, intriguing prospect

player with Risk factors

Mike Jenkins, South Florida, 5102, 197, 4.38, 18, 34 (CB/S/KR)
Small school, good athlete, character questions

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee St., 6014, 184, 4.28, 17, 38.5 (CB)
Small school, Poor college production, Excellent athlete, size

Aqib Talib, Kansas, 6006, 202, 4.47, 10, 38 (CB/S)
very productive, athlete, size, So so tackler, character questions

Terrell Thomas, USC, 6004, 195, 4.49, 21 (CB/S)
Size, experience, injury

Brandon Flowers, Virginia Tech 5096, 189, 4.58, 14, 30 (CB)
Lack of size, character questions, solid hitter, strong

I look at risk factors agains the contract value as a guide to determine the day one value. Then rank them according to that and then the skills sets. each risk factor has it own value. Drugs are the highest down to fighting once.

Then I look at the players skill sets and positions the will play.

Pure CB

Leodis McKelvin - despite poor hands he is as solid as any CB in the draft if not the best. He makes a big difference in the return game.

Antoine Cason - may not develope into a #1 but is the best #2 CB in the draft

Mike Jenkins - Way to productive to ignore.

Tracy Porter - Solid all round play and can be coached up. Leader

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - Package is too interesting. Diamond in the rough.? Should have owned Div II ball

Justin King - Diamond in the ruff? Solid risk factor.

CB/S tweener

Aqib Talib - Probably the best skill set of the group. Can he be coached up? Solid #2 or FS

Charles Godfrey - Diamond in the ruff. Solid risk factor.

Chevis Jackson - way to productive to overlook

Dwight Lowery - Coachable? but way to good.

Terrell Thomas - Solid prospect that injuries are due to hitting

Patrick Lee - Diamond in the ruff?

Brandon Flowers - Size and his interview is key.

A player like Brandon is hard. Size is just against him. Then getting busted with weed and cash in his car makes you stop and wonder what you getting. But there is no question about the fact he can play.

Now comes the Objective part of the draft, inter mixing the two and try to rank all them accordingly.

"We may have lost the game, but you'll be hurting tomorrow." Doug Atkins

JKool

I think we may be using the word "objective" differently.

The grouping idea does seem like a good start. It also seems to be the basis for a good number of scouting reports (the ones we get to read anyway).

Another interesting factor from our earlier discussion was this: games played is a good indicator of NFL success. This makes a bit of sense, but I wonder if number of games started isn't an even better indicator?

CantonLegend

i think that games played is a great indicator and should be looked at first and foremost....if u dont start on ur team its unlikely you will start in the nfl..not definite tho....i've always looked at games started as being more important unless the games they didnt start were caused by an injury...if they still managed to play that game then i believe the coaches were in agreement that player A is definitly better than player B who replaced him for the start

ssmitty

how much do i get paid to start to do this, and does the salary go up with experience?

CantonLegend

haha....i think salary would go up with accuracy...not experience...if ur serious lol

hagan714

paid? lol whats that?

Ahh now we are talking the workout hype. I like game tapes myself. Measurements are fine and all and are needed but many times it comes down to how the player actually plays. Thats why I like Brandon Flowers for the sake of discussion. He has three big flags; character, size and so so speed. Interviewing is needed to answer the character part. As for size and speed the only way you can tell. He plays bigger than his and faster than he times. Simply put he knows how to play the position. But can he pull it of against NFL WR. You watch the tapes against the better WR he has faced that have good QBs throwing to him. he is not bad. There was more than one time he was victimized for these short comings.
So what do you do? Guess? well the answer is yes. LOL gotta go with your gut on this one.
Mine reads this way on him, has all the skills to be a solid #2 in the nfl. his size will make him a nickel back and special teams demon. Probably

"We may have lost the game, but you'll be hurting tomorrow." Doug Atkins

JKool

Canton, nice point about starts versus games played. That is a good distinction. Further, it makes a nice point about how the College coach's judgment about the player gets packed into how we evaluate him - the coach's decision about who to play, when, and how often tells us something about the player.

Smitty, you get paid only in kudos... as usual.

Hagan, I'm sure that the measurements are not the best way to judge, this would be like evaluating a player ONLY in terms of his stats. As Euph points out, that is worthless (I think that is overstated, but point more or less taken). Thus, 40 times (which, as we saw in our earlier thread, are not correlated to NFL success) would be of little benefit if the player can't judge the ball or is always out of position.

Game tapes introduce a different kind of problem. Observations of a player can be colored by our beliefs, background theories and so on. That is, if we already think a player is quite good, we might be willing to overlook/forgive certain kinds of slip ups that we would hold against a believed "lesser" player. In a sense, the stats take out some of the subjectivity of our "viewing."

Thus, it seems like there is a trade-off between game tape (for example) and measurements. This might be one place where scouting is more of an art than a science?

"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks

hagan714

PT is a prime example of that. In his Jr year there was talk about him as a possible day one pick. Then in his senior year he gets a new coach and drops of the map. Very valid point.


True. Messures are just indicators, thats all. Thats where the drills come into play. Better indication of what the players weaknesses are. Tapes show game time reactions and tendencies.

I call that Homerism. This is the hardest thing to guard against. One good play does not make up for two bad ones. Thats where you have to look at production for and against. Pass defenses Vs first downs surrender, for example. DRC scored very low in this. He was down right bad. The talent is there so you have to question his heart.

This is where you get the money.


I get French Market coffee and M&Ms for my efforts. LOL

"We may have lost the game, but you'll be hurting tomorrow." Doug Atkins