NO-ATL Spread

xan · 10-29-2009, 08:49 AM

According to the current line, the Saints are a 10 point favorite against the Falcons. Some lines have the Saints as much as a 12.5 point favorite. Is this bandwagon jumping or have the dirty birds regressed? Is the Pokes bye week trampling of the tired Falcons more indicative of their season or did ATL simply have a bad game?

Sure, the game is at home, and the favored team that has won has covered the spread for the last 5 times. It is worrying that any line in the NFL gets into double digits and more troubling when that particular game is with an arch-enemy.

What is the take on the Falcons this year? Who has seen them and what makes the oddsmakers believe that the Saints win nearly 80% of simulations?

exile · 10-29-2009, 09:01 AM

One thing of note is that Vegas rarely makes mistakes. They could care less about allegiances to teams. This is why I think that NCAA football should follow Vegas rankings instead of BCS rankings.

So if they say Saints by 10. It is a much better predication than anywhere else you can find. Because to them it is all about making $$$ and not rooting for teams.

dizzle88 · 10-29-2009, 09:25 AM

Hey guys, ive watched most of the Falcons games and they seem to be inconsistent, e.g they blasted the 49ers one week, and then buckled against the cowboys. From what ive seen, Michael Turner is not the same guy he was last year.

If we can get a rythm going early we will put ourself in good position, matt ryan had a lot of pressure put on him the cowboys game so lets go greg williams, send the pressure as always!!

SmashMouth · 10-29-2009, 09:36 AM

WOW ... pretty bold .... but it IS Monday night ... and the Dome will be rocking .. maybe even like the first game after Katrina, the last time the Falclowns did not have a chance. Is U2 schedule to play before the game also?

YouTube - U2 and Green Day "The Saints Are Coming" video

neugey · 10-29-2009, 10:00 AM

We've won every game by 10 or more points, Vegas books need to get some of their money back!

WhoDat205 · 10-29-2009, 10:30 AM

We're 6-0 against the spread this season. Gamblers will take notice of that.

And keep in mind, Vegas' objective is not to predict the margin of victory, but to get the bets even on both sides. That's why the spread moves. They want more money on ATL.

This happened two seasons ago when the Pats were blowing everyone out. Eventually the line will over-correct.

Euphoria · 10-29-2009, 10:55 AM

Originally Posted by WhoDat205

We're 6-0 against the spread this season. Gamblers will take notice of that.

And keep in mind, Vegas' objective is not to predict the margin of victory, but to get the bets even on both sides. That's why the spread moves. They want more money on ATL.

This happened two seasons ago when the Pats were blowing everyone out. Eventually the line will over-correct.

THIS IS EXACTLY RIGHT!!! Its not that Vegas or anyone knows what they are doing they are trying to keep the money or lop-sided bets breaking the house. If people keep put money on the Saints the spread will go up to get people to put money on the falcons to cover the Saints bets they took in to even out as best they can.

exile · 10-29-2009, 11:10 AM

Originally Posted by Euphoria

THIS IS EXACTLY RIGHT!!! Its not that Vegas or anyone knows what they are doing they are trying to keep the money or lop-sided bets breaking the house. If people keep put money on the Saints the spread will go up to get people to put money on the falcons to cover the Saints bets they took in to even out as best they can.

It is not that they know what they are doing more so as they do it with indifference. So you can bet that they try to get the lines as close as possible while trying to also sway bets at the same time. Still leads to more accurate lines imho.

xan · 10-29-2009, 11:16 AM

Yes, I understand the theory behind setting the spreads, I'm wondering why the line keeps creeping up. What is it about the perception of those betting that makes people believe that the Saints are 10-12 points better than the Flakeons? They were the division favorites September 1, now, they're scrambling to be part of the wild card discussion. What do we know unconsciously that we should illuminate so that we can explain this?

WhoDat205 · 10-29-2009, 11:29 AM

Originally Posted by xan

Yes, I understand the theory behind setting the spreads, I'm wondering why the line keeps creeping up. What is it about the perception of those betting that makes people believe that the Saints are 10-12 points better than the Flakeons? They were the division favorites September 1, now, they're scrambling to be part of the wild card discussion. What do we know unconsciously that we should illuminate so that we can explain this?

We are 6-0 against the number this season. Our closest game this season was a 12 point win. We average 40 ppg.

If I was an unbiased bettor I would be loading the wagons on the Saints until the streak stops.

If this was the opening game of the season, you'd probably see something close to a pick'em or even the Falcs slightly favored.

10-29-2009, 08:49 AM	#1
xan Professor Crab and Site Donor 2014 Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Princeton Posts: 3,371 Blog Entries: 34	NO-ATL Spread According to the current line, the Saints are a 10 point favorite against the Falcons. Some lines have the Saints as much as a 12.5 point favorite. Is this bandwagon jumping or have the dirty birds regressed? Is the Pokes bye week trampling of the tired Falcons more indicative of their season or did ATL simply have a bad game? Sure, the game is at home, and the favored team that has won has covered the spread for the last 5 times. It is worrying that any line in the NFL gets into double digits and more troubling when that particular game is with an arch-enemy. What is the take on the Falcons this year? Who has seen them and what makes the oddsmakers believe that the Saints win nearly 80% of simulations?
	Calvin: "I wish I was a Tiger." Hobbes: "Common lament."

10-29-2009, 09:01 AM	#2
exile Cake or Death? Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 3,608	Re: NO-ATL Spread One thing of note is that Vegas rarely makes mistakes. They could care less about allegiances to teams. This is why I think that NCAA football should follow Vegas rankings instead of BCS rankings. So if they say Saints by 10. It is a much better predication than anywhere else you can find. Because to them it is all about making $$$ and not rooting for teams.
exile Cake or Death? Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 3,608

10-29-2009, 09:25 AM	#3
dizzle88 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 11,357	Re: NO-ATL Spread Hey guys, ive watched most of the Falcons games and they seem to be inconsistent, e.g they blasted the 49ers one week, and then buckled against the cowboys. From what ive seen, Michael Turner is not the same guy he was last year. If we can get a rythm going early we will put ourself in good position, matt ryan had a lot of pressure put on him the cowboys game so lets go greg williams, send the pressure as always!!

10-29-2009, 10:00 AM	#5
neugey Hu Dat! Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 6,714 Blog Entries: 13	Re: NO-ATL Spread We've won every game by 10 or more points, Vegas books need to get some of their money back!

10-29-2009, 10:30 AM	#6
WhoDat205 Prediction Pain Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Birmingham, AL Posts: 1,082 Blog Entries: 2	Re: NO-ATL Spread We're 6-0 against the spread this season. Gamblers will take notice of that. And keep in mind, Vegas' objective is not to predict the margin of victory, but to get the bets even on both sides. That's why the spread moves. They want more money on ATL. This happened two seasons ago when the Pats were blowing everyone out. Eventually the line will over-correct.

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10-29-2009, 10:55 AM	#7
Euphoria 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Hollywood, CA Posts: 7,601 Blog Entries: 5	Re: NO-ATL Spread Originally Posted by WhoDat205 We're 6-0 against the spread this season. Gamblers will take notice of that. And keep in mind, Vegas' objective is not to predict the margin of victory, but to get the bets even on both sides. That's why the spread moves. They want more money on ATL. This happened two seasons ago when the Pats were blowing everyone out. Eventually the line will over-correct. THIS IS EXACTLY RIGHT!!! Its not that Vegas or anyone knows what they are doing they are trying to keep the money or lop-sided bets breaking the house. If people keep put money on the Saints the spread will go up to get people to put money on the falcons to cover the Saints bets they took in to even out as best they can.

10-29-2009, 11:10 AM	#8
exile Cake or Death? Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 3,608	Re: NO-ATL Spread Originally Posted by Euphoria THIS IS EXACTLY RIGHT!!! Its not that Vegas or anyone knows what they are doing they are trying to keep the money or lop-sided bets breaking the house. If people keep put money on the Saints the spread will go up to get people to put money on the falcons to cover the Saints bets they took in to even out as best they can. It is not that they know what they are doing more so as they do it with indifference. So you can bet that they try to get the lines as close as possible while trying to also sway bets at the same time. Still leads to more accurate lines imho.
exile Cake or Death? Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 3,608

10-29-2009, 11:16 AM	#9
xan Professor Crab and Site Donor 2014 Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Princeton Posts: 3,371 Blog Entries: 34	Re: NO-ATL Spread Yes, I understand the theory behind setting the spreads, I'm wondering why the line keeps creeping up. What is it about the perception of those betting that makes people believe that the Saints are 10-12 points better than the Flakeons? They were the division favorites September 1, now, they're scrambling to be part of the wild card discussion. What do we know unconsciously that we should illuminate so that we can explain this?

10-29-2009, 11:29 AM	#10
WhoDat205 Prediction Pain Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Birmingham, AL Posts: 1,082 Blog Entries: 2	Re: NO-ATL Spread Originally Posted by xan Yes, I understand the theory behind setting the spreads, I'm wondering why the line keeps creeping up. What is it about the perception of those betting that makes people believe that the Saints are 10-12 points better than the Flakeons? They were the division favorites September 1, now, they're scrambling to be part of the wild card discussion. What do we know unconsciously that we should illuminate so that we can explain this? We are 6-0 against the number this season. Our closest game this season was a 12 point win. We average 40 ppg. If I was an unbiased bettor I would be loading the wagons on the Saints until the streak stops. If this was the opening game of the season, you'd probably see something close to a pick'em or even the Falcs slightly favored.