BillyCarpenter1

http://www.nfl.com/teams/story/MIA/4644182


Elway: The ratings game



By John Elway
QB Club

(Dec. 5, 2001) -- I never had a strong grasp of the NFL's passer rating formula when I was playing. I still don't. What I do know is that the guy who created the formula never played quarterback in the NFL.

Using the passing efficiency rating to compare quarterbacks is like comparing apples and oranges. To me, it's one of the greatest fallacies in the league.

Every quarterback is in a different situation, a different system. And therefore every quarterback is asked to do different things. I think the best coaches are the ones that mold the system around the type of quarterback they have, rather than trying to plug the quarterback into the system.

There are so many things outside that rating that makes a quarterback valuable. To me, the No. 1 job of a quarterback -- besides winning, of course -- is what he does on third down. The most important job for a quarterback is to keep his team on the field. He can be 0-for-2 on first and second down, pick up the third down, and that 33 percent is better than a quarterback who completes three short passes and punts on fourth-and-1. The quarterback rating does not reflect that.

A quarterback is penalized in the rating system for throwing the ball away on first down to avoid a sack, but now it's second-and-10 instead of second-and-18.

To me, the most important stat would be "third-down rating." Ranking the players who are most effective on third down would be far more informative than an overall rating.

Another thing that doesn't go into that quarterback rating is if a guy runs for a first down, whether it's a scramble or a designed play. That's being an effective quarterback.

And maybe that's the key word -- "effective." It's more meaningful in this case than "efficient." Sure, you can be an efficient passer without winning football games. But you've got to be effective in order to win.

Doug Flutie is a perfect example of an effective quarterback. He'll never have a great passing efficiency rating -- his rating this year is 74.0, which is 24th in the league. But he's helped the Chargers go from 1-15 last year to 5-7 this season. He's not necessarily a statistical darling, but he knows how to win. And to me, that's a characteristic that elevates a quarterback's status from good to great.

West Coast bias
It's no surprise that Steve Young and Joe Montana have the highest career passer ratings in NFL history. Taking nothing away from these great players, it should be noted that the West Coast offense, without question, is a system that lends to a high passing efficiency. It's the type of offense that aims for a high completion percentage, and it allows for more touchdown passes because they throw a lot inside the 10-yard line.

It's no surprise that my best years, ratings-wise, came when the Broncos switched to the West Coast offense. My highest career rating was actually my final season in the league, 93.0 in 1998. My second-best rating was 92.8 in 1993 -- that was the year Jim Fassel came in as offensive coordinator and installed the West Coast offense. Despite the high rating, however, we didn't make the playoffs that year.

On the other hand, I also had some years where the rating was pretty bad -- and some of those years ended in the Super Bowl. Here are my ratings for the first three years we played in the Super Bowl:

1986 - 79.0
1987 - 83.4
1989 - 73.7


Right after the head coach, the quarterback is next in line as far as being responsible for wins and losses. So it's hard for me to understand why winning and losing wouldn't be part of the passing efficiency rating. I understand that, in our society, there's always a need to compare everybody. I just think there can be a lot of adjustments made to this rating system that would give people a better idea of who the most effective quarterbacks are.

And that's not completing an 8-yard pass on third-and-12.

Some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today are at or near the top of the ratings -- guys like Rich Gannon, Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Tom Brady.

But here are a few examples of quarterbacks who are playing much better than their ratings imply:

Jay Fiedler, Dolphins: Ranks 17th in the league with a rating of 78.7, but his team's in first place. Miami's philosophy is to win with defense and try not to turn the ball over, so passer rating isn't as important. But last week, Fiedler found his team down by 10 in the fourth quarter and he figured out a way to score a couple of offensive touchdowns and help the Dolphins win.

Kordell Stewart, Steelers: Ranks 16th with a rating of 80.8. Here's a perfect example of an offensive coordinator doing a great job of molding the system around what his quarterback does best -- keeping him out of situations that he doesn't handle as well.

Jim Miller, Bears: Ranks 26th with a rating of 73.1. But anybody quarterbacking a team that's 9-2 has got to be doing something right

EDIT : WhoDat -- Just thought you might like to read this. Nothing to do with Brooks or anything .





[Edited on 12/9/2003 by BillyCarpenter1]