Elway: The ratings game (for WhoDat..)

BillyCarpenter1 · 09-11-2003, 09:20 PM

http://www.nfl.com/teams/story/MIA/4644182

Elway: The ratings game

By John Elway
QB Club

(Dec. 5, 2001) -- I never had a strong grasp of the NFL's passer rating formula when I was playing. I still don't. What I do know is that the guy who created the formula never played quarterback in the NFL.

Using the passing efficiency rating to compare quarterbacks is like comparing apples and oranges. To me, it's one of the greatest fallacies in the league.

Every quarterback is in a different situation, a different system. And therefore every quarterback is asked to do different things. I think the best coaches are the ones that mold the system around the type of quarterback they have, rather than trying to plug the quarterback into the system.

There are so many things outside that rating that makes a quarterback valuable. To me, the No. 1 job of a quarterback -- besides winning, of course -- is what he does on third down. The most important job for a quarterback is to keep his team on the field. He can be 0-for-2 on first and second down, pick up the third down, and that 33 percent is better than a quarterback who completes three short passes and punts on fourth-and-1. The quarterback rating does not reflect that.

A quarterback is penalized in the rating system for throwing the ball away on first down to avoid a sack, but now it's second-and-10 instead of second-and-18.

To me, the most important stat would be "third-down rating." Ranking the players who are most effective on third down would be far more informative than an overall rating.

Another thing that doesn't go into that quarterback rating is if a guy runs for a first down, whether it's a scramble or a designed play. That's being an effective quarterback.

And maybe that's the key word -- "effective." It's more meaningful in this case than "efficient." Sure, you can be an efficient passer without winning football games. But you've got to be effective in order to win.

Doug Flutie is a perfect example of an effective quarterback. He'll never have a great passing efficiency rating -- his rating this year is 74.0, which is 24th in the league. But he's helped the Chargers go from 1-15 last year to 5-7 this season. He's not necessarily a statistical darling, but he knows how to win. And to me, that's a characteristic that elevates a quarterback's status from good to great.

West Coast bias
It's no surprise that Steve Young and Joe Montana have the highest career passer ratings in NFL history. Taking nothing away from these great players, it should be noted that the West Coast offense, without question, is a system that lends to a high passing efficiency. It's the type of offense that aims for a high completion percentage, and it allows for more touchdown passes because they throw a lot inside the 10-yard line.

It's no surprise that my best years, ratings-wise, came when the Broncos switched to the West Coast offense. My highest career rating was actually my final season in the league, 93.0 in 1998. My second-best rating was 92.8 in 1993 -- that was the year Jim Fassel came in as offensive coordinator and installed the West Coast offense. Despite the high rating, however, we didn't make the playoffs that year.

On the other hand, I also had some years where the rating was pretty bad -- and some of those years ended in the Super Bowl. Here are my ratings for the first three years we played in the Super Bowl:

1986 - 79.0
1987 - 83.4
1989 - 73.7

Right after the head coach, the quarterback is next in line as far as being responsible for wins and losses. So it's hard for me to understand why winning and losing wouldn't be part of the passing efficiency rating. I understand that, in our society, there's always a need to compare everybody. I just think there can be a lot of adjustments made to this rating system that would give people a better idea of who the most effective quarterbacks are.

And that's not completing an 8-yard pass on third-and-12.

Some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today are at or near the top of the ratings -- guys like Rich Gannon, Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Tom Brady.

But here are a few examples of quarterbacks who are playing much better than their ratings imply:

Jay Fiedler, Dolphins: Ranks 17th in the league with a rating of 78.7, but his team's in first place. Miami's philosophy is to win with defense and try not to turn the ball over, so passer rating isn't as important. But last week, Fiedler found his team down by 10 in the fourth quarter and he figured out a way to score a couple of offensive touchdowns and help the Dolphins win.

Kordell Stewart, Steelers: Ranks 16th with a rating of 80.8. Here's a perfect example of an offensive coordinator doing a great job of molding the system around what his quarterback does best -- keeping him out of situations that he doesn't handle as well.

Jim Miller, Bears: Ranks 26th with a rating of 73.1. But anybody quarterbacking a team that's 9-2 has got to be doing something right

EDIT : WhoDat -- Just thought you might like to read this. Nothing to do with Brooks or anything .

[Edited on 12/9/2003 by BillyCarpenter1]

WhoDat · 09-12-2003, 12:45 PM

Great - so you\'ve proven that the quarterback must fit the system. Who would have guessed? Sounds kind of familiar to me... and you believe that Brooks fits our system huh?

saintfan · 09-12-2003, 02:15 PM

I think what it proves is the system must fit the QB not the other way around, and there is a difference. THAT goes back to coaching and play calling...lets see how you put the anti-AB spin on that one...

WhoDat · 09-12-2003, 04:52 PM

So you\'re suggesting that our offense is built around AB? When McCarthy came here he picked Aaron Brooks to be the starter and designed a system to fits his talents? Obviously, that\'s why he was the backup. But McCarthy had the foresight to develop a system for him. Sure, did - he saw this young physically gifted mobile BACKUP quarterback and said - \"I\'m going to develop a system that allows that kid to stand in the pocket and use his touch!\" No doubt. I mean - Brooks getting hurt would be far worse than if Deuce got hurt, Horn, Gandy. Plug any guy in there, this offense is OBVIOUSLY built around Aaron Brooks.

I mean - teams that design systems around QBs have been very successful of recent. Tampa, Oakland, New England, St. Louis, the Giants, the Ravens, Tennessee - ALL of those teams have offense built solely around a playmaker at QB right? That\'s why they\'ve been in the last 4 Super Bowls.

Oh yeah, how many Super Bowls have Atlanta, Minnesota, Philly, Pittsburgh w/ Stewart... or the AB Saints been in over the last four years? ZERO? Yeah - that\'s what I thought.

[Edited on 12/9/2003 by WhoDat]

[Edited on 12/9/2003 by WhoDat]

BillyCarpenter1 · 09-12-2003, 05:07 PM

I mean - teams that design systems around QBs have been very successful of recent. Tampa, Oakland, New England, St. Louis, the Giants, the Ravens, Tennessee - ALL of those teams have offense built solely around a playmaker at QB right? That\'s why they\'ve been in the last 4 Super Bowls.

Oh yeah, how many Super Bowls have Atlanta, Minnesota, Philly, Pittsburgh w/ Stewart... or the AB Saints been in over the last four years? ZERO? Yeah - that\'s what I thought.

I noticed that you lumped all the Black QB\'s in one group and all the White QB\'s in another. What\'s up with that?

What about Manning, Garcia, Hasslebeck, and Trent Green. How many superbowls have they been in??? Maybe it\'s not black QB\'s you don\'t like maybe it\'s just athletic QB\'s???

saintfan · 09-12-2003, 05:10 PM

Da \"Whodat Spin\" strikes again. I\'m suggesting nothing...only pointing out that the article indicates that the system should be built around the QB and not the other way around and that ther\'s a difference. I never said ours was. Again I give you enough credit to say that I\'m sure you know that\'s what I said...you\'re just fueling the argument...

WhoDat · 09-12-2003, 05:17 PM

Of the guys Billy listed above, Garcia is the only QB I feel is mobile. He should be grouped with the McNabbs, Vicks, and Culpeppers. But to say that Peyton Manning or Trent Green are mobile QBs... LOL.

BillyCarpenter1 · 09-12-2003, 05:21 PM

Of the guys Billy listed above, Garcia is the only QB I feel is mobile. He should be grouped with the McNabbs, Vicks, and Culpeppers. But to say that Peyton Manning or Trent Green are mobile QBs... LOL

I wasn\'t suggesting that Manning or Trent Green were moblie QB\'s. What I was suggesting is that you used mobile(black) Qb\'s to compare Qb\'s that have been to the Superbowl when you could have used at least one White(not mobile) QB to make your comparision.

[Edited on 12/9/2003 by BillyCarpenter1]

WhoDat · 09-12-2003, 05:27 PM

PS - well to Saintfan, thank you captain obvious. Your ability to restate the obvious is inspiring.

Intersting. Billy used this article to show that Passer Efficiency is not a very good rating. Here are the QBs that have a HIGH Rating that Elway apparently feels are \"Some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today.\"

Rich Gannon, Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Tom Brady

Here are the guys with LOW ratings, but who he feels are still good QBs -

Jay Fiedler, Kordell Stewart, Jim Miller.

Good, so we\'ll clump AB with the low efficiency group like Miller, Fiedler, and Stewart. What did the Dolphins do last season? Oh yeah, they tanked, just like the Saints. Stewart? Benched then released. Miller... 3-13 I think. Released. Great company.

Whereas Favre, Gannon, Warner, Garcia, and Brady... well, what do those guys know about success?

saintfan · 09-12-2003, 05:30 PM

Maybe you could be co-captain Whodat. If any of your statistial posts were anywhere close to obvious I might pay more attention.

09-11-2003, 09:20 PM	#1
BillyCarpenter1 Banned Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 2,209	Elway: The ratings game (for WhoDat..) http://www.nfl.com/teams/story/MIA/4644182 Elway: The ratings game By John Elway QB Club (Dec. 5, 2001) -- I never had a strong grasp of the NFL's passer rating formula when I was playing. I still don't. What I do know is that the guy who created the formula never played quarterback in the NFL. Using the passing efficiency rating to compare quarterbacks is like comparing apples and oranges. To me, it's one of the greatest fallacies in the league. Every quarterback is in a different situation, a different system. And therefore every quarterback is asked to do different things. I think the best coaches are the ones that mold the system around the type of quarterback they have, rather than trying to plug the quarterback into the system. There are so many things outside that rating that makes a quarterback valuable. To me, the No. 1 job of a quarterback -- besides winning, of course -- is what he does on third down. The most important job for a quarterback is to keep his team on the field. He can be 0-for-2 on first and second down, pick up the third down, and that 33 percent is better than a quarterback who completes three short passes and punts on fourth-and-1. The quarterback rating does not reflect that. A quarterback is penalized in the rating system for throwing the ball away on first down to avoid a sack, but now it's second-and-10 instead of second-and-18. To me, the most important stat would be "third-down rating." Ranking the players who are most effective on third down would be far more informative than an overall rating. Another thing that doesn't go into that quarterback rating is if a guy runs for a first down, whether it's a scramble or a designed play. That's being an effective quarterback. And maybe that's the key word -- "effective." It's more meaningful in this case than "efficient." Sure, you can be an efficient passer without winning football games. But you've got to be effective in order to win. Doug Flutie is a perfect example of an effective quarterback. He'll never have a great passing efficiency rating -- his rating this year is 74.0, which is 24th in the league. But he's helped the Chargers go from 1-15 last year to 5-7 this season. He's not necessarily a statistical darling, but he knows how to win. And to me, that's a characteristic that elevates a quarterback's status from good to great. West Coast bias It's no surprise that Steve Young and Joe Montana have the highest career passer ratings in NFL history. Taking nothing away from these great players, it should be noted that the West Coast offense, without question, is a system that lends to a high passing efficiency. It's the type of offense that aims for a high completion percentage, and it allows for more touchdown passes because they throw a lot inside the 10-yard line. It's no surprise that my best years, ratings-wise, came when the Broncos switched to the West Coast offense. My highest career rating was actually my final season in the league, 93.0 in 1998. My second-best rating was 92.8 in 1993 -- that was the year Jim Fassel came in as offensive coordinator and installed the West Coast offense. Despite the high rating, however, we didn't make the playoffs that year. On the other hand, I also had some years where the rating was pretty bad -- and some of those years ended in the Super Bowl. Here are my ratings for the first three years we played in the Super Bowl: 1986 - 79.0 1987 - 83.4 1989 - 73.7 Right after the head coach, the quarterback is next in line as far as being responsible for wins and losses. So it's hard for me to understand why winning and losing wouldn't be part of the passing efficiency rating. I understand that, in our society, there's always a need to compare everybody. I just think there can be a lot of adjustments made to this rating system that would give people a better idea of who the most effective quarterbacks are. And that's not completing an 8-yard pass on third-and-12. Some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today are at or near the top of the ratings -- guys like Rich Gannon, Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Tom Brady. But here are a few examples of quarterbacks who are playing much better than their ratings imply: Jay Fiedler, Dolphins: Ranks 17th in the league with a rating of 78.7, but his team's in first place. Miami's philosophy is to win with defense and try not to turn the ball over, so passer rating isn't as important. But last week, Fiedler found his team down by 10 in the fourth quarter and he figured out a way to score a couple of offensive touchdowns and help the Dolphins win. Kordell Stewart, Steelers: Ranks 16th with a rating of 80.8. Here's a perfect example of an offensive coordinator doing a great job of molding the system around what his quarterback does best -- keeping him out of situations that he doesn't handle as well. Jim Miller, Bears: Ranks 26th with a rating of 73.1. But anybody quarterbacking a team that's 9-2 has got to be doing something right EDIT : WhoDat -- Just thought you might like to read this. Nothing to do with Brooks or anything . [Edited on 12/9/2003 by BillyCarpenter1]
BillyCarpenter1 Banned Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 2,209

09-12-2003, 12:45 PM	#2
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	Elway: The ratings game (for WhoDat..) Great - so you\'ve proven that the quarterback must fit the system. Who would have guessed? Sounds kind of familiar to me... and you believe that Brooks fits our system huh?
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631

09-12-2003, 02:15 PM	#3
saintfan Donated Plasma Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: San Francisco, CA Posts: 18,556 Blog Entries: 5	Elway: The ratings game (for WhoDat..) I think what it proves is the system must fit the QB not the other way around, and there is a difference. THAT goes back to coaching and play calling...lets see how you put the anti-AB spin on that one...

09-12-2003, 04:52 PM	#4
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	Elway: The ratings game (for WhoDat..) So you\'re suggesting that our offense is built around AB? When McCarthy came here he picked Aaron Brooks to be the starter and designed a system to fits his talents? Obviously, that\'s why he was the backup. But McCarthy had the foresight to develop a system for him. Sure, did - he saw this young physically gifted mobile BACKUP quarterback and said - \"I\'m going to develop a system that allows that kid to stand in the pocket and use his touch!\" No doubt. I mean - Brooks getting hurt would be far worse than if Deuce got hurt, Horn, Gandy. Plug any guy in there, this offense is OBVIOUSLY built around Aaron Brooks. I mean - teams that design systems around QBs have been very successful of recent. Tampa, Oakland, New England, St. Louis, the Giants, the Ravens, Tennessee - ALL of those teams have offense built solely around a playmaker at QB right? That\'s why they\'ve been in the last 4 Super Bowls. Oh yeah, how many Super Bowls have Atlanta, Minnesota, Philly, Pittsburgh w/ Stewart... or the AB Saints been in over the last four years? ZERO? Yeah - that\'s what I thought. [Edited on 12/9/2003 by WhoDat] [Edited on 12/9/2003 by WhoDat]
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	\"Excuses, excuses, excuses. ThatÃ¢Â€Â™s all anyone ever makes for the New Orleans SaintsÃ¢Â€Â™ organization.\" - Eric Narcisse \"Being a Saints fan is almost like being addicted to crack,\" he said.[i]\"You know you should stop, but you just can\'t.\"

09-12-2003, 05:07 PM	#5
BillyCarpenter1 Banned Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 2,209	Elway: The ratings game (for WhoDat..) I mean - teams that design systems around QBs have been very successful of recent. Tampa, Oakland, New England, St. Louis, the Giants, the Ravens, Tennessee - ALL of those teams have offense built solely around a playmaker at QB right? That\'s why they\'ve been in the last 4 Super Bowls. Oh yeah, how many Super Bowls have Atlanta, Minnesota, Philly, Pittsburgh w/ Stewart... or the AB Saints been in over the last four years? ZERO? Yeah - that\'s what I thought. I noticed that you lumped all the Black QB\'s in one group and all the White QB\'s in another. What\'s up with that? What about Manning, Garcia, Hasslebeck, and Trent Green. How many superbowls have they been in??? Maybe it\'s not black QB\'s you don\'t like maybe it\'s just athletic QB\'s???
BillyCarpenter1 Banned Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 2,209

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09-12-2003, 05:10 PM	#6
saintfan Donated Plasma Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: San Francisco, CA Posts: 18,556 Blog Entries: 5	Elway: The ratings game (for WhoDat..) Da \"Whodat Spin\" strikes again. I\'m suggesting nothing...only pointing out that the article indicates that the system should be built around the QB and not the other way around and that ther\'s a difference. I never said ours was. Again I give you enough credit to say that I\'m sure you know that\'s what I said...you\'re just fueling the argument...

09-12-2003, 05:17 PM	#7
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	Elway: The ratings game (for WhoDat..) Of the guys Billy listed above, Garcia is the only QB I feel is mobile. He should be grouped with the McNabbs, Vicks, and Culpeppers. But to say that Peyton Manning or Trent Green are mobile QBs... LOL.
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631

09-12-2003, 05:21 PM	#8
BillyCarpenter1 Banned Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 2,209	Elway: The ratings game (for WhoDat..) Of the guys Billy listed above, Garcia is the only QB I feel is mobile. He should be grouped with the McNabbs, Vicks, and Culpeppers. But to say that Peyton Manning or Trent Green are mobile QBs... LOL I wasn\'t suggesting that Manning or Trent Green were moblie QB\'s. What I was suggesting is that you used mobile(black) Qb\'s to compare Qb\'s that have been to the Superbowl when you could have used at least one White(not mobile) QB to make your comparision. [Edited on 12/9/2003 by BillyCarpenter1]
BillyCarpenter1 Banned Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 2,209

09-12-2003, 05:27 PM	#9
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	Elway: The ratings game (for WhoDat..) PS - well to Saintfan, thank you captain obvious. Your ability to restate the obvious is inspiring. Intersting. Billy used this article to show that Passer Efficiency is not a very good rating. Here are the QBs that have a HIGH Rating that Elway apparently feels are \"Some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today.\" Rich Gannon, Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Tom Brady Here are the guys with LOW ratings, but who he feels are still good QBs - Jay Fiedler, Kordell Stewart, Jim Miller. Good, so we\'ll clump AB with the low efficiency group like Miller, Fiedler, and Stewart. What did the Dolphins do last season? Oh yeah, they tanked, just like the Saints. Stewart? Benched then released. Miller... 3-13 I think. Released. Great company. Whereas Favre, Gannon, Warner, Garcia, and Brady... well, what do those guys know about success?
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	\"Excuses, excuses, excuses. ThatÃ¢Â€Â™s all anyone ever makes for the New Orleans SaintsÃ¢Â€Â™ organization.\" - Eric Narcisse \"Being a Saints fan is almost like being addicted to crack,\" he said.[i]\"You know you should stop, but you just can\'t.\"

09-12-2003, 05:30 PM	#10
saintfan Donated Plasma Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: San Francisco, CA Posts: 18,556 Blog Entries: 5	Elway: The ratings game (for WhoDat..) Maybe you could be co-captain Whodat. If any of your statistial posts were anywhere close to obvious I might pay more attention.