xan

At the 9 week mark, at 4-5, there are 5 locks for spots:

Green Bay (6-3)
Chicago (7-2)
San Fran (6-2-1)
Giants (6-4)
Atlanta (8-1)

That leaves 1 spot.

There are 5 teams above the Saints:

Minny - 6-4 (CHI * 2, GB *2, Houston) Projected 8-8
Seattle - 6-4 (CHI, SF) Projected 10-6
Detroit - 4-5 (GB *2, ATL, CHI) Projected 8-8
TB - 5-4 (ATL *2, NO, Denver) Projected 8-8
Dallas - 4-5 (Cincy, Pitt) Projected 9-7 (Cleve, Wash*2, Philly wins)

Looking at the schedule, ours is not the toughest, but it is close.

@OAK win
SF Possible loss (odds change with starting qb)
@ATL Probable loss
@NY Probable loss (weather will dictate)
TB win
@DAL possible loss
CAR (if history is any indicator) probable loss

Seattle is the 90% favorite to take the #6 seed (2nd wildcard spot). Minny has a crushing final 7 weeks, but they face a quarterbackless Chicago twice in 3 weeks.
Dallas has to have one more inexplicable loss, which doesn't look likely.

Even assuming a 5 win run, a loss to Dallas gives them the tiebreak if we both wind up 10-6.

Things are looking up. Football Outsiders had us at 1.2% odds of gaining the 6th spot before the win against the Falcons. We should gain about 10%. We still have to get to 10-6 to have a shot, and then we have to beat the Cowboys in that mix.

We need to start scoreboard watching, and cheering for underdogs (or favorites, in many cases), so the team doesn't.

Calvin: "I wish I was a Tiger."
Hobbes: "Common lament."