SaintsRule11

I haven't given up hope quite yet, although the outlook does look bleak. A number of things would have to fall our way in order for us to make the playoffs.

We have only a 2% chance of making the playoffs according to coolstandings.com.

In order for us to make the playoffs, here are the things that would have to happen.

First, we would pretty much have to win out. There are a lot of good teams in the NFC right now, and I don't believe an 8-8 or 7-9 team is going to make the playoffs. It's just not going to happen. Our remaining schedule is as follows:

Week 14: at NYG
Week 15: Buccaneers
Week 16: at DAL
Week 17: Panthers

These are all winnable games, but we really have to win that first one against the Giants. Obviously if we don't, stick a fork in us.

If we were to win out, that would knock both NYG and DAL down a peg, which would help our cause. Also, we would be 4-2 in our division. Seattle, for instance, is already 0-3 in their division.

Secondly, a number of other teams would have to kind of suck, beginning with Seattle.

The first of Seattle's remaining games comes at home against the rudderless Cardinals. Easy win for Seattle. Then, the Seahawks face the Bills in Buffalo (or Toronto?). The Bills have been fairly strong at home and they seem to be improving so this is not a cakewalk. Plus, karma (they should have lost to the Packers) dictates that the Seahawks lose at least one remaining game to an inferior team. Then the Seahawks host the 49ers, then the somewhat resurgent Rams. I believe it's entirely possible that the Seahawks go 2-2 over their last four games. If we win out, and it's us versus the Seahawks with a 9-7 record (they are currently 7-5), here would be the tiebreaking scenario:

(*this portion has been edited with corrections)

First, the league would look at who had the better conference record. If we won out, we would have a conference record of 7-5. If the Seahawks were to go 9-7 and lose to at least one conference opponent along the way (for instance, to the 49ers), their conference record would also be 7-5. Now if the Seahawks were to go 9-7 and lose to two conference opponents along the way, such as the Rams and 49ers, then their conference record would be 6-6 and we would win this tiebreaker. Personally, I'm praying for a Ryan Lindley miracle in Seattle this weekend.

But if it comes to pass that our conference records were tied, the league would look at who had the better record against common opponents - minimum of four. The Saints and Seahawks share the following opponents: Packers, Panthers, 49ers, Cowboys. The Seahawks beat the Panthers, Packers, and Cowboys, and lost to the 49ers. We lost to the Panthers, Packers, and 49ers and have yet to play the Cowboys. We would lose this tiebreaker if both the Saints and the Seahawks end up at 9-7.

We really need the Seahawks to struggle mightily over their remaining four games.

Now, the Giants (7-5) would also need to struggle, and I believe that they will. Assuming we beat the Giants, next up for the G-men is an absolutely brutal portion of the schedule - they have to travel to Atlanta, then Baltimore. (Go Falcons! Go Ravens!). Then they host the dithering Eagles at home. If the Cowboys manage to win the division and the Saints and Giants are tied at 9-7, provided of course that we already defeated them during week 14, then we win the tiebreaker. The importance of this week's game against the Giants cannot be overemphasized.

The Cowboys (6-6) remaining schedule is likewise difficult. They travel to Cincinnati this weekend (Go Bengals!), then they host the Steelers (Go Steelers!), then they host the Saints (Go Saints!), then they travel to Washington. Assuming the Cowboys only win one of the three games prior to facing the Redskins, they will only be 7-8 and we will likely need to root for the Cowboys in order to knock the Redskins out of playoff contention.

The Redskins, who are 6-6, have a schedule that is easier than either the Giants' or the Cowboys'. They host the Ravens this weekend (Go Ravens!), then they travel to Cleveland (sigh), then they travel to Philadelphia (sigh), then they host the Cowboys. The most likely losses would probably be to the Ravens and the Cowboys, but then again, Nick Foles is starting to look good for the Philadelphia Eagles. We really really really would need the Redskins to go no better than 2-2 with their remaining games. If they go 3-1, they end up at 9-7 and would automatically beat us in a tiebreaker because they defeated us during the regular season.

Note that I'm pretty much assuming that both the Packers and the Bears will make the playoffs. Both teams have a pretty easy schedule for the rest of the season and ironically the only tough contest on either team's remaining schedule is against each other.

I'm also assuming that neither the Vikings nor the Rams will make a serious charge at the post-season, but stranger things have happened. I suppose I shouldn't count out the Buccaneers either, but I don't see them beating either the Saints or the Falcons in away games.

So the Falcons are in. In my mind, both the Packers and Bears are in. I believe the 49ers are in as well. And at least one of Giants/Cowboys/Redskins are in. If we win out, we stand a decent chance of making the playoffs. We need our defense to continue to improve. And we need Drew Brees to please stop throwing soul-crushing interceptions.