Another 'sucker' bet

alexonfyre · 12-07-2013, 05:02 PM

Originally Posted by ScottF

Because bettors look at it and think the Saints are sure bet to cover that spread. They get sucked in and usually lose.
Last week everyone took the Saints plus 4.5-- same thing

End of the day, the real football experts are not at ESPN or Fox, but in Vegas. No team this year is better than 8-4 vs the spread

So, you are saying that, in reality, the spread should be closer to even, or favoring the Panthers, but Vegas is able to get incredible house odds by giving -3 to the Saints because of bettors' over-confidence?

ScottF · 12-08-2013, 12:45 PM

Originally Posted by alexonfyre

So, you are saying that, in reality, the spread should be closer to even, or favoring the Panthers, but Vegas is able to get incredible house odds by giving -3 to the Saints because of bettors' over-confidence?

actually, the opposite
the majority of bettors take the favorite and the home team, so the line-makers balance that by adjusting the line up higher.
And, theoretically the home team gives another 3 points on the spread, more if the stadium is a tough place to play
the Saints are -3, which means that if this week's game was in Carolina, we'd be a 3 point or more underdog.

so if you are not bored yet and still reading, bottom line is I am surprised that we are not a 4.5 favorite. I guess that 4 TD loss is still on everyone's mind

WHODATINCA · 12-09-2013, 05:33 AM

Originally Posted by Mardigras9

I think it will be close unfortunately. Hope I'm wrong.

You were wrong!!!

12-07-2013, 05:02 PM	#21
alexonfyre Site Donor Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Black Pearl University Posts: 799	Re: Another 'sucker' bet Originally Posted by ScottF Because bettors look at it and think the Saints are sure bet to cover that spread. They get sucked in and usually lose. Last week everyone took the Saints plus 4.5-- same thing End of the day, the real football experts are not at ESPN or Fox, but in Vegas. No team this year is better than 8-4 vs the spread So, you are saying that, in reality, the spread should be closer to even, or favoring the Panthers, but Vegas is able to get incredible house odds by giving -3 to the Saints because of bettors' over-confidence?

12-08-2013, 12:45 PM	#22
ScottF 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Atlanta Posts: 6,324	Re: Another 'sucker' bet Originally Posted by alexonfyre So, you are saying that, in reality, the spread should be closer to even, or favoring the Panthers, but Vegas is able to get incredible house odds by giving -3 to the Saints because of bettors' over-confidence? actually, the opposite the majority of bettors take the favorite and the home team, so the line-makers balance that by adjusting the line up higher. And, theoretically the home team gives another 3 points on the spread, more if the stadium is a tough place to play the Saints are -3, which means that if this week's game was in Carolina, we'd be a 3 point or more underdog. so if you are not bored yet and still reading, bottom line is I am surprised that we are not a 4.5 favorite. I guess that 4 TD loss is still on everyone's mind

12-09-2013, 05:33 AM	#23
WHODATINCA Site Donor Join Date: Aug 2013 Location: South Bay Posts: 3,784	Re: Another 'sucker' bet Originally Posted by Mardigras9 I think it will be close unfortunately. Hope I'm wrong. You were wrong!!!

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