TheOak

Draft and needs discussions are in full swing, its time to remind everyone about the % of players drafted that actually start rookie year on opening day.

Matt McGuire's did a 10-Year NFL Draft Study and below are some snippets from the study with links. I see a lot of people putting a lot of confidence in the draft to fix issues, and there is also a lot of discussion on draft busts or successes.

No need to get your knickers in a pinch over our First Round Draft picks, nearly 1/2 the league doesn't get it right.
If you have excel, click on the links and the spreadsheets are there.
First Round Draft picks historically have a 56%-ish chance of success.

WalterFootball.com: NFL Draftology 408: The 10-Year NFL Draft Study: Round 1


Second round drops to a 50/50 shot at a success.

WalterFootball.com: NFL Draftology 408: The 10-Year NFL Draft Study: Round 2


Great article by pat Kerwin
"If you look back at the draft classes of the past 10 years, there should be an expectation for 25-30 rookie starters, or about 3 to 4 percent of the opening day starters."

Re-read it... That is 25-30 rookies of the entire draft class generally start opening week of their rookie season. In essence only around 75-80% of first round draft picks are starters year one, week one.
The 23 rookies likely to be starting by Week 1 of the NFL season - CBSSports.com

This leads me to believe your best bet is to find the 1 position that we absolutely need a starter at from the draft and go with that, the remainder of our draft class should be considered projects to be on the safe side.

Drafting is not a science, it is an art with a great deal of luck.