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Draft and Needs Perspective

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Draft and needs discussions are in full swing, its time to remind everyone about the % of players drafted that actually start rookie year on opening day. Matt McGuire's did a 10-Year NFL Draft Study and below are some snippets ...

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Old 02-04-2014, 09:10 AM   #1
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Draft and Needs Perspective

Draft and needs discussions are in full swing, its time to remind everyone about the % of players drafted that actually start rookie year on opening day.

Matt McGuire's did a 10-Year NFL Draft Study and below are some snippets from the study with links. I see a lot of people putting a lot of confidence in the draft to fix issues, and there is also a lot of discussion on draft busts or successes.

No need to get your knickers in a pinch over our First Round Draft picks, nearly 1/2 the league doesn't get it right.
If you have excel, click on the links and the spreadsheets are there.
First Round Draft picks historically have a 56%-ish chance of success.

WalterFootball.com: NFL Draftology 408: The 10-Year NFL Draft Study: Round 1


Second round drops to a 50/50 shot at a success.

WalterFootball.com: NFL Draftology 408: The 10-Year NFL Draft Study: Round 2


Great article by pat Kerwin
"If you look back at the draft classes of the past 10 years, there should be an expectation for 25-30 rookie starters, or about 3 to 4 percent of the opening day starters."

Re-read it... That is 25-30 rookies of the entire draft class generally start opening week of their rookie season. In essence only around 75-80% of first round draft picks are starters year one, week one.
The 23 rookies likely to be starting by Week 1 of the NFL season - CBSSports.com

This leads me to believe your best bet is to find the 1 position that we absolutely need a starter at from the draft and go with that, the remainder of our draft class should be considered projects to be on the safe side.

Drafting is not a science, it is an art with a great deal of luck.

If you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes.

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Old 02-04-2014, 09:26 AM   #2
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Re: Draft and Needs Perspective

So it appears that on average every other 1st rounder should yield a starter.

We've had
Vaccaro - Yes
Jordan - Yes
Ingram - Yes
Robinson - Iffy (and he was the last 1st round pick)
Jenkins - Yes
Ellis - Yes, and then no.
Meachem - Yes but barely
Bush - Yes

It kinda looks like we've had a lot more success than most teams.
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Old 02-04-2014, 09:42 AM   #3
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Re: Draft and Needs Perspective

Originally Posted by Danno View Post
So it appears that on average every other 1st rounder should yield a starter.

We've had
Vaccaro - Yes
Jordan - Yes
Ingram - Yes
Robinson - Iffy (and he was the last 1st round pick)
Jenkins - Yes
Ellis - Yes, and then no.
Meachem - Yes but barely
Bush - Yes

It kinda looks like we've had a lot more success than most teams.
I do believe that how you draft your first rounder weighs heavily on that success percentage. E.g. Drafting best player available vs need. There are quite a few clubs that reach into the first round for need for players that should have gone in the second round.

I think QBs skew that percentage also, although more QBs have been drafted to start in recent years than i remember in the past.

In some instances the stars align and the BPA is also your PoN.


Ellis is a perfect example of the decreasing percentage from 3-10 year.
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Old 02-04-2014, 09:58 AM   #4
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Re: Draft and Needs Perspective

Interesting article,the reality of the draft is sobering it is even more so when you break it down by positions I don't know all of the percentages but I remember reading that DT is 46% success rate in rd one. Following the draft is not about reality it is about hope. Rarely do any of the draftniks get it right. It really is just a form of mental masturbation used to fill the gap between seasons. I just try and enjoy the good and bad post that we make now and see how they play out.
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Old 02-04-2014, 10:11 AM   #5
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Re: Draft and Needs Perspective

I think there is a tendency among some fans to WANT IT RIGHT NOW. Instant Gratification. The number of non-QB 1st round draft picks who actually start and play the bulk of snaps on opening day in the NFL, and make an impact through that first season, is not really THAT astronomically high out of 32 teams. The Saints also have a habit of taking it slow and DEVELOPING their rookies in general, grooming them rather than just throwing them out there to the wolves. But some people want every single pick in the draft to be a Aldon Smith or Luke Keuchly or Adrian Peterson type monster game changer, right out the gate on DAY ONE. If every single pick isn't the next Clay Matthews or Von Miller, these people aren't satisfied.
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Old 02-04-2014, 10:21 AM   #6
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Re: Draft and Needs Perspective

Luck plays an very important part in drafting. The second part is equally as important.

Player development.

You can draft the most successful and talented guys but if you unable to polish these gems, they're never going to shine.
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Old 02-04-2014, 04:22 PM   #7
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Re: Draft and Needs Perspective

The tendency is actually reality for us...

Bree's isn't getting any younger. We need some real gems to come in and play immediately.

I think building this team for the future means we need to stock pile players that will help a young QB coming in who is going to replace Brees in a couple of years. So the QB can develop and grow as we remain competitive until he comes into his own.

Do we need to win now??? YES!!!!
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Old 02-10-2014, 02:14 PM   #8
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Re: Draft and Needs Perspective

So, what we need to do is trade back into the second round where it is 50/50......we only lose 6% probability. And we gain extra picks.
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Old 02-10-2014, 03:02 PM   #9
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Re: Draft and Needs Perspective

What we need to do is see how free agency works out for us, then cut to get under the cap, then see how the 26 picks before us go then decide.

That probability has nothing to do with ends up being a hit or miss after years... Has nothing to do with Who starts their rookie season.

If you need a starter you go after him in the first round and roll the dice. How many second round picks start their rookie season because they were drafted to start? Very few, most get to start because of injury to some other player.

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Old 02-10-2014, 03:41 PM   #10
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Re: Draft and Needs Perspective

If you're counting Ingram as a yes, your grading system is flawed. 3 decent games in 3 years isn't considered a success, plain and simple.
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