The next can't miss QB!

GumboBC · 02-12-2005, 12:09 PM

How do you know the next "sure" thing at QB?

Here's some examples :

Jimmy Johnson inherited the No. 1 choice in his first season in Dallas and took quarterback Troy Aikman in 1989, a franchise quarterback who would help the Cowboys win three Super Bowls.

Indianapolis held the magical pick a year after Dallas and took who it thought was going to be it's Aikman in Jeff George. The Indianapolis native turned out to be an anti-Aikman as he lasted just four seasons with the hometown Colts before he and his acidic attitude were shipped out of town to Atlanta for three draft choices. Out of those three picks, the Colts were eventually able to get All-Pro wide receiver Marvin Harrison, six years after they had selected George.

Since 1990, there have been 21 quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft with decidedly mixed results!

For every Drew Bledsoe, there is a Tommy Maddox. Steve McNair is doing just fine; Heath Shuler is selling real estate. Peyton Manning is a superstar; Ryan Leaf is out of the league.

Fans look at a few QBs that have come out of nowhere and think those guys grow on trees! Fans are convinced they know who's the next great QB!

Of course, you'd be wise not to question those fans who think they know the QB postion and how to tell the next great QB!

But, that's mighty risky business folks!!

In fact, picking QB's is a risky business for guys whose job it is to evaluate potential NFL QBs! Much less some "Monday Morning" QB !!

Right now there's some fans out there looking at some back-up QB or looking at one of the QBs in the upcoming draft. They think they know a "sure thing when they see it.

I'll bet ya anything that those same fans would have be sold on some of these 1st round draft selections :

Tim Couch
Ryan Leaf
Jim Druckenmiller
Heath Shuler
David Klingler
Tommy Maddox
Dan McGwire,
Todd Marinovich
Andre Ware

But, I'll bet if you ask those fans who KNOW how to tell the "sure" thing ... They'll tell you they knew better!

WhoDat · 02-12-2005, 04:14 PM

What\'s the point of this thread?

ScottyRo · 02-12-2005, 04:18 PM

I think he has caught on to the fact that none of us really know whether a player is gonna make it or bust. The secret is out, I guess.

WhoDat · 02-12-2005, 04:45 PM

But unlike us \"haters\" he knows AB is the best QB in the league. How does that work?

AB: \"I\'m a great QB.\"
Billy: Sounds about right to me.
AB\'s rank: ~15th overall

Joe Horn: \"I\'m a great WR\"
Billy: Worst comments ever made by a Saint.
Horn\'s rank: ~4th or 5th in every category for 5 years.

Uh??????????

GumboBC · 02-12-2005, 05:39 PM

What\'s the point of this thread?

Well, I\'ve been reading all the wonderful posts on this board about all these QBs that we need to get.

They tell me it would be wise to get some rookie or unproven back-up QB and suffer for a couple of years until they get their feet wet.

They tell me its in the best interest of the team.

Yep, that\'s what they tell me.

Just pointing out how easy it is to end up with a bust at QB.

Of course I know you guys know what you\'re talking about....

Well, okay .... I lied. I don\'t believe too much some of you say!! :P

WhoDat · 02-12-2005, 05:42 PM

Right - better to be the most inconsistent and underachieving mediocre team in the league b/c you\'re too scared to make a change and get worse. Good plan.

WhoDat · 02-12-2005, 05:48 PM

They tell me it would be wise to get some rookie or unproven back-up QB and suffer for a couple of years until they get their feet wet.

They tell me its in the best interest of the team.

Yep, that\'s what they tell me.

Just pointing out how easy it is to end up with a bust at QB.

Of course I know you guys know what you\'re talking about....

Well, okay .... I lied. I don\'t believe too much some of you say!!

Wait - are these the same guys that told you the offense would digress slightly, the defense would be bad, and the team would be average?

Right, don\'t listen to us. Keep on talking about why the team will be 12-4 with a top 10 defense. LMAO. If you say it every year, I\'m sure you\'ll eventually be right. LOL

JKool · 02-12-2005, 05:54 PM

There are two points here, and they are distinct:

(1) A given poster\'s risk aversion.
(2) How bad it is with the current guy.

It is my view (and this has been discussed at some length elsewhere) that (1) is not really worth discussing, and (2) has been beaten to death.

I\'m inclined to agree with Billy on this one. If we want someone to get it done right away, we don\'t want a rookie. First, there is good reason to think that a rookie will not even reach Brooks\' stats in the first two years (and that is saying something about how rookies do) - if you want some evidence go back and look at my analysis of Leftwich and Boller. Second, there is some chance that a rookie will be a bust, as Billy has pointed out here.

Certainly, we can do better with another QB. However, there is just good reason to think that a rookie won\'t do it for at least two years (or, for Whodi, no reason to think one way or another that a rookie could be as good in two years - which is fine, the argument still stands).

We should get a proven guy, like Hasselbeck, or go with a guy who has had some experience in the league (at least two years).

Now, if you really have a long range out-look, and you don\'t mind being not much, if at all, better (and don\'t mind the risk of being much worse) than we are at the QB position right now, a rookie will be just fine in all probability. I don\'t see how that could be argued against.

LKelley67 · 02-12-2005, 05:55 PM

They tell me it would be wise to get some rookie or unproven back-up QB and suffer for a couple of years until they get their feet wet.

most folks say rookie to groom, not to throw into the fire. the common names mentioned i do not consider unproven back-ups: garcia, mcmahon, holcombe, brees, bledsoe, hasslebeck, johnson, maddox, kitna, rattay, etc.

Just pointing out how easy it is to end up with a bust at QB.

we already know that all to well! i just wish we could get rid of him before he has no trade value left when he loses his job.

i know well and sure that a change may not end up being an improvement. for 6mil+ commitment for a few more years i would much rather a different flavor poison- something other than the 51 fumbles in the past four years, the failures at the critical junctures, the mouth that seems to become increasingly arrogant and assinine, etc, etc, etc.

GumboBC · 02-12-2005, 06:16 PM

What I have a problem with is SOME of you are all for getting an unproven rookie or backup QB and not ever talking about the risks associated with it.

All I hear is it\'s in the best interest of the team to get rid of our current QB and let\'s hope for the best. I\'m sorry, I can\'t be that naive!

Unlike some, I fully understand the risks that are associated with drafting a QB. Or inserting an unproven backup!

Now, some of you have brought up some good options. Like Drew Brees. (though I\'m not sure)

But some of you seem hell-bent on trying damn near anything at QB!

P.S. - As far as all this drivel about AB ... It\'s not worth responding to. You can do better...

02-12-2005, 12:09 PM	#1
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616	The next can't miss QB! How do you know the next "sure" thing at QB? Here's some examples : Jimmy Johnson inherited the No. 1 choice in his first season in Dallas and took quarterback Troy Aikman in 1989, a franchise quarterback who would help the Cowboys win three Super Bowls. Indianapolis held the magical pick a year after Dallas and took who it thought was going to be it's Aikman in Jeff George. The Indianapolis native turned out to be an anti-Aikman as he lasted just four seasons with the hometown Colts before he and his acidic attitude were shipped out of town to Atlanta for three draft choices. Out of those three picks, the Colts were eventually able to get All-Pro wide receiver Marvin Harrison, six years after they had selected George. Since 1990, there have been 21 quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft with decidedly mixed results! For every Drew Bledsoe, there is a Tommy Maddox. Steve McNair is doing just fine; Heath Shuler is selling real estate. Peyton Manning is a superstar; Ryan Leaf is out of the league. Fans look at a few QBs that have come out of nowhere and think those guys grow on trees! Fans are convinced they know who's the next great QB! Of course, you'd be wise not to question those fans who think they know the QB postion and how to tell the next great QB! But, that's mighty risky business folks!! In fact, picking QB's is a risky business for guys whose job it is to evaluate potential NFL QBs! Much less some "Monday Morning" QB !! Right now there's some fans out there looking at some back-up QB or looking at one of the QBs in the upcoming draft. They think they know a "sure thing when they see it. I'll bet ya anything that those same fans would have be sold on some of these 1st round draft selections : Tim Couch Ryan Leaf Jim Druckenmiller Heath Shuler David Klingler Tommy Maddox Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich Andre Ware But, I'll bet if you ask those fans who KNOW how to tell the "sure" thing ... They'll tell you they knew better!
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616

02-12-2005, 04:14 PM	#2
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	The next can't miss QB! What\'s the point of this thread?
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631

02-12-2005, 04:18 PM	#3
ScottyRo 1000 Posts + Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Williamsburg, VA (ugh, the food here) Posts: 1,704	The next can't miss QB! I think he has caught on to the fact that none of us really know whether a player is gonna make it or bust. The secret is out, I guess.

02-12-2005, 04:45 PM	#4
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	The next can't miss QB! But unlike us \"haters\" he knows AB is the best QB in the league. How does that work? AB: \"I\'m a great QB.\" Billy: Sounds about right to me. AB\'s rank: ~15th overall Joe Horn: \"I\'m a great WR\" Billy: Worst comments ever made by a Saint. Horn\'s rank: ~4th or 5th in every category for 5 years. Uh??????????
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631

02-12-2005, 05:39 PM	#5
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616	The next can't miss QB! What\'s the point of this thread? Well, I\'ve been reading all the wonderful posts on this board about all these QBs that we need to get. They tell me it would be wise to get some rookie or unproven back-up QB and suffer for a couple of years until they get their feet wet. They tell me its in the best interest of the team. Yep, that\'s what they tell me. Just pointing out how easy it is to end up with a bust at QB. Of course I know you guys know what you\'re talking about.... Well, okay .... I lied. I don\'t believe too much some of you say!! :P
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616

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02-12-2005, 05:42 PM	#6
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	The next can't miss QB! Right - better to be the most inconsistent and underachieving mediocre team in the league b/c you\'re too scared to make a change and get worse. Good plan.
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631

02-12-2005, 05:48 PM	#7
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631	The next can't miss QB! They tell me it would be wise to get some rookie or unproven back-up QB and suffer for a couple of years until they get their feet wet. They tell me its in the best interest of the team. Yep, that\'s what they tell me. Just pointing out how easy it is to end up with a bust at QB. Of course I know you guys know what you\'re talking about.... Well, okay .... I lied. I don\'t believe too much some of you say!! Wait - are these the same guys that told you the offense would digress slightly, the defense would be bad, and the team would be average? Right, don\'t listen to us. Keep on talking about why the team will be 12-4 with a top 10 defense. LMAO. If you say it every year, I\'m sure you\'ll eventually be right. LOL
WhoDat 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 5,631

02-12-2005, 05:54 PM	#8
JKool 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,423	The next can't miss QB! There are two points here, and they are distinct: (1) A given poster\'s risk aversion. (2) How bad it is with the current guy. It is my view (and this has been discussed at some length elsewhere) that (1) is not really worth discussing, and (2) has been beaten to death. I\'m inclined to agree with Billy on this one. If we want someone to get it done right away, we don\'t want a rookie. First, there is good reason to think that a rookie will not even reach Brooks\' stats in the first two years (and that is saying something about how rookies do) - if you want some evidence go back and look at my analysis of Leftwich and Boller. Second, there is some chance that a rookie will be a bust, as Billy has pointed out here. Certainly, we can do better with another QB. However, there is just good reason to think that a rookie won\'t do it for at least two years (or, for Whodi, no reason to think one way or another that a rookie could be as good in two years - which is fine, the argument still stands). We should get a proven guy, like Hasselbeck, or go with a guy who has had some experience in the league (at least two years). Now, if you really have a long range out-look, and you don\'t mind being not much, if at all, better (and don\'t mind the risk of being much worse) than we are at the QB position right now, a rookie will be just fine in all probability. I don\'t see how that could be argued against.
	"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks

02-12-2005, 05:55 PM	#9
LKelley67 1000 Posts + Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: baton rouge Posts: 2,540	The next can't miss QB! They tell me it would be wise to get some rookie or unproven back-up QB and suffer for a couple of years until they get their feet wet. most folks say rookie to groom, not to throw into the fire. the common names mentioned i do not consider unproven back-ups: garcia, mcmahon, holcombe, brees, bledsoe, hasslebeck, johnson, maddox, kitna, rattay, etc. Just pointing out how easy it is to end up with a bust at QB. we already know that all to well! i just wish we could get rid of him before he has no trade value left when he loses his job. i know well and sure that a change may not end up being an improvement. for 6mil+ commitment for a few more years i would much rather a different flavor poison- something other than the 51 fumbles in the past four years, the failures at the critical junctures, the mouth that seems to become increasingly arrogant and assinine, etc, etc, etc.

02-12-2005, 06:16 PM	#10
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616	The next can't miss QB! What I have a problem with is SOME of you are all for getting an unproven rookie or backup QB and not ever talking about the risks associated with it. All I hear is it\'s in the best interest of the team to get rid of our current QB and let\'s hope for the best. I\'m sorry, I can\'t be that naive! Unlike some, I fully understand the risks that are associated with drafting a QB. Or inserting an unproven backup! Now, some of you have brought up some good options. Like Drew Brees. (though I\'m not sure) But some of you seem hell-bent on trying damn near anything at QB! P.S. - As far as all this drivel about AB ... It\'s not worth responding to. You can do better...
GumboBC Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,616